In Michael Clifford's Ramblings on Wednesday he started to cover some teams and their cap outlooks for the coming seasons. It's a good practice to get into for all cap league managers, and I'm looking forward to seeing what he digs up as that train of thought continues for the next few days. It can be especially useful for RFAs, as the teams with more cap space for their RFAs are less likely to pinch every penny and pull the average annual value (AAV) down. That means that with Sam Reinhart and Ryan Pulock both being projected for a $6.7 million AAV next year, odds are that Pulock's number will come in lower due to being pressured by the Islanders' cap situation.

Below we have Pulock, Reinhart, and 198 other free agents projected for their next salaries. After two iterations of the skater salary projections I have made all the updates necessary, fully reviewed all of the inputs, projections and formulas for the projection output, and now there is just the final list to publish. There have been a few signings thus far such as Jared McCann, Joel Edmundson, and Sean Walker that have been exceptionally close to my numbers. It's great to see, and hopefully the rest of the summer plays out that way as well. Unfortunately, that is never the case, but with every deviation from expected, we can learn from it and adapt for the future. That's my plan anyways.

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My overall thoughts on the projections:

Most importantly, these projections aren't perfect – keep that in mind. These projections try to take all of the player biases out of the equation, and it's all based off of numbers. As a result, if you don't agree with something, then it could mean you have some existing biases that are showing through (or that there is something I haven't considered in my work – so please let me know). On the flip side, this also means that a lot of the NHL GM biases can't be taken into account, and what we end up with is partially a projection of a player's value instead of exactly what they will sign for. This means that it can be a useful tool to ballpark a player's value before they sign and to give an approximation on their potential cost. It can then also be used after a contract is signed to compare their value to the contract versus the expectation, easily signaling whether the initial reaction to the contract should be positive or negative.

The list that I put out in February had a few major bugs that were fixed for the July edition. Since then, there have been some further tweaks to accommodate for the flat cap numbers among other minor tweaks. I am very happy with the results now, but as a writer and publisher of numbers I love to hear criticism and comments as they point out the areas for improvement. You can find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean for any of these comments.

From CapFriendly, there are currently 203 slots open on NHL rosters for next year, with a total of $420 million in cap space. The total of the top 200 free agents I have projected is about $440 million – add in the goalies and it is $490 million for the top 220 free agents. Taking into account the cap space available around the league increasing due to some buyouts, retirements, players getting buried in the minors, and teams not running with the fully available 23 roster slots, and the cap numbers start to add up. The cap crunch for free agents is going to be noticeable on 50^th to 25^th percentile players (third liners and fourth/fifth defencemen), who might have gotten a salary of a couple million, but now will be forced to take half or even a third of that. That's where I expect my numbers to be off the most – and it will be directly correlated to how many teams don't spend to the salary cap next year.

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Some quick hits regarding the list:

-The Islanders and Lightning are in real trouble with the projected cap hits of their key RFAs. Anthony Cirelli just keeps padding his wallet with clutch goals too.

-Who is going to need an offensive defenceman badly enough to pay Tyson Barrie $7 million or Torey Krug $8 million?

–Max Domi deserves $6 million, but it doesn't sound as though he is going to get it in Montreal. After the Canadiens tried to sign away Sebastian Aho via an offersheet last year, does someone (Minnesota?) try to get Domi for a first and a third-round pick? Montreal may have to let him go for that.

-Andrew Mangiapane is going to be a bargain if he gets his projected $2.7 million.

-Which sub-$3 million defenceman would you rather have? Kevin Shattenkirk, Phil Myers, Travis Dermott, Nikita Zadorov, or Vince Dunn?

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–Josh Anderson's past few seasons have really killed his projected value. He may need a short-term deal for a season where he stays healthy before he can really cash in. He might be a good buy-low in bangers leagues.

-The minimum salary for next year as per the new CBA is $700,000, going up to $750,000 for the 2021-2022 season. Anyone not showing is also projected to earn the league minimum of $700,000, though most rookies will probably be closer to $900,000.

-If any players are bought out then I'll post their projected new salaries on Twitter. For example, if Kyle Turris gets bought out by the Predators, then his projected salary for next season would be $3.2 million.

Rank	Name	Age	Pos	Projected Cap Hit
1	Taylor Hall	28	F	$9,215,498
2	Alex Pietrangelo	30	D	$8,647,661
3	Mathew Barzal	23	F	$8,119,226
4	Torey Krug	29	D	$7,908,774
5	Mike Hoffman	30	F	$7,140,559
6	Tyson Barrie	29	D	$7,024,068
7	Sam Reinhart	24	F	$6,771,467
8	Ryan Pulock	25	D	$6,719,811
9	Pierre-Luc Dubois	22	F	$6,709,205
10	Max Domi	25	F	$6,228,280
11	Tyler Toffoli	28	F	$5,858,878
12	Anthony Cirelli	23	F	$5,805,380
13	Anthony DeAngelo	24	D	$5,729,143
14	Evgenii Dadonov	31	F	$5,687,668
15	Anthony Mantha	26	F	$5,647,726
16	Andre Burakovsky	25	F	$5,474,486
17	Devon Toews	26	D	$4,903,906
18	Ryan Graves	25	D	$4,878,873
19	Ryan Strome	27	F	$4,775,928
20	Dylan Strome	23	F	$4,736,037
21	Kevin Labanc	24	F	$4,466,463
22	Jake DeBrusk	23	F	$4,363,252
23	Mikhail Sergachev	22	D	$4,164,167
24	Roope Hintz	23	F	$4,149,461
25	Matt Grzelcyk	26	D	$4,079,016
26	Mikael Granlund	28	F	$4,055,741
27	Tyler Bertuzzi	25	F	$4,053,558
28	Luke Kunin	22	F	$4,008,308
29	Dominik Kubalík	25	F	$3,996,015
30	Jesper Bratt	22	F	$3,943,560
31	Jordan Greenway	23	F	$3,860,816
32	Dominik Kahun	25	F	$3,636,743
33	Valeri Nichushkin	25	F	$3,597,986
34	Erik Gustafsson	28	D	$3,551,772
35	Vladislav Gavrikov	24	D	$3,513,276
36	Craig Smith	31	F	$3,501,009
37	Brandon Montour	26	D	$3,455,243
38	Connor Brown	26	F	$3,440,386
39	Jesper Fast	28	F	$3,417,353
40	Ilya Mikheyev	25	F	$3,415,183
41	Victor Olofsson	25	F	$3,397,585
42	T.J. Brodie	30	D	$3,357,553
43	Sami Vatanen	29	D	$3,347,992
44	Chris Tanev	30	D	$3,259,146
45	Andreas Athanasiou	26	F	$3,180,210
46	Troy Stecher	26	D	$3,170,985
47	Carl Soderberg	34	F	$3,072,167
48	Anthony Duclair	25	F	$3,038,763
49	Chandler Stephenson	26	F	$3,014,938
50	Kevin Shattenkirk	31	D	$2,989,705
51	Chris Tierney	26	F	$2,948,791
52	Philippe Myers	23	D	$2,946,927
53	Nikita Zadorov	25	D	$2,848,209
54	Mattias Janmark	27	F	$2,808,234
55	Vince Dunn	23	D	$2,796,791
56	Radek Faksa	26	F	$2,772,765
57	Jake Virtanen	24	F	$2,746,979
58	Ethan Bear	23	D	$2,746,158
59	Erik Cernak	22	D	$2,735,768
60	Justin Schultz	30	D	$2,729,516
61	Andrew Mangiapane	24	F	$2,717,929
62	Travis Dermott	23	D	$2,611,717
63	Tyler Ennis	30	F	$2,602,720
64	Jack Roslovic	23	F	$2,564,543
65	Matthew Nieto	27	F	$2,542,848
66	Haydn Fleury	24	D	$2,542,664
67	Adam Gaudette	23	F	$2,536,777
68	Denis Gurianov	23	F	$2,535,322
69	Radko Gudas	30	D	$2,407,297
70	Victor Mete	22	D	$2,393,796
71	Justin Braun	33	D	$2,329,518
72	Vladislav Namestnikov	27	F	$2,296,118
73	Cody Ceci	26	D	$2,294,940
74	Warren Foegele	24	F	$2,268,351
75	Erik Haula	29	F	$2,236,746
76	Christian Fischer	23	F	$2,129,227
77	Dylan DeMelo	27	D	$2,117,277
78	Tyson Jost	22	F	$2,080,440
79	Lucas Wallmark	25	F	$2,053,969
80	Vinnie Hinostroza	26	F	$1,981,709
81	Nick Cousins	27	F	$1,958,760
82	Michael Del Zotto	30	D	$1,950,060
83	Mark Jankowski	26	F	$1,949,232
84	Jimmy Vesey	27	F	$1,866,745
85	Nick Holden	33	D	$1,859,530
86	Carson Soucy	26	D	$1,846,716
87	Alex Galchenyuk	26	F	$1,834,333
88	Derick Brassard	32	F	$1,827,824
89	Cody Eakin	29	F	$1,818,161
90	Dominik Simon	26	F	$1,811,615
91	Johan Larsson	28	F	$1,755,810
92	Travis Hamonic	30	D	$1,747,364
93	Conor Sheary	28	F	$1,700,331
94	Sam Lafferty	25	F	$1,670,501
95	Madison Bowey	25	D	$1,663,873
96	Drake Caggiula	26	F	$1,650,444
97	MacKenzie Weegar	26	D	$1,621,245
98	Mark Pysyk	28	D	$1,613,563
99	Josh Anderson	26	F	$1,583,734
100	Casey Mittelstadt	21	F	$1,525,969
101	Nathan Beaulieu	27	D	$1,524,144
102	Wayne Simmonds	32	F	$1,518,746
103	Oliver Kylington	23	D	$1,505,117
104	Ilya Kovalchuk	37	F	$1,502,413
105	Corey Perry	35	F	$1,467,650
106	Brendan Lemieux	24	F	$1,461,438
107	Derek Grant	30	F	$1,455,077
108	Zemgus Girgensons	26	F	$1,422,268
109	Andy Greene	37	D	$1,404,011
110	Zdeno Chara	43	D	$1,403,507
111	Joe Thornton	41	F	$1,396,861
112	Tyler Pitlick	28	F	$1,338,778
113	Dmytro Timashov	23	F	$1,330,831
114	Sami Niku	23	F	$1,320,332
115	Brenden Dillon	29	D	$1,314,027
116	Kyle Clifford	29	F	$1,307,490
117	Mikko Koivu	37	F	$1,297,486
118	Trevor van Riemsdyk	29	D	$1,279,879
119	Melker Karlsson	30	F	$1,267,300
120	Mark Borowiecki	31	D	$1,266,901
121	Michael Frolik	32	F	$1,261,126
122	Filip Chlapik	23	F	$1,237,167
123	Mirco Mueller	25	D	$1,231,871
124	Tomas Nosek	28	F	$1,206,826
125	Carter Verhaeghe	25	F	$1,200,508
126	Dmitry Kulikov	29	D	$1,193,415
127	Pat Maroon	32	F	$1,130,007
128	Sam Gagner	31	F	$1,129,999
129	Taro Hirose	24	F	$1,101,027
130	Tim Heed	29	D	$1,097,238
131	Jayce Hawryluk	24	F	$1,093,412
132	Riley Sheahan	28	F	$1,092,284
133	Robert Hagg	25	D	$1,059,794
134	Mason Appleton	24	F	$1,011,147
135	Travis Boyd	27	F	$1,009,424
136	Trevor Lewis	33	F	$1,005,066
137	Derek Forbort	28	D	$967,502
138	Josh Leivo	27	F	$956,076
139	Luca Sbisa	30	D	$951,314
140	Matt Martin	31	F	$942,064
141	Adam Erne	25	F	$934,233
142	Anthony Bitetto	30	D	$927,541
143	Josh Brown	26	D	$911,474
144	Jason Spezza	37	F	$910,292
145	Nate Thompson	35	F	$907,000
146	Carl Grundstrom	22	F	$862,422
147	Rudolfs Balcers	23	F	$849,367
148	Kevin Rooney	27	F	$846,383
149	Ron Hainsey	39	D	$838,616
150	Austin Czarnik	27	F	$812,343
151	Austin Wagner	23	F	$810,880
152	Brendan Guhle	23	F	$804,865
153	Oscar Fantenberg	28	D	$801,574
154	Brendan Perlini	24	F	$788,287
155	Karson Kuhlman	24	F	$771,084
156	Lawrence Pilut	24	D	$766,042
157	Brian Boyle	35	F	$764,631
158	Mathieu Joseph	23	F	$759,589
159	Colin Wilson	30	F	$756,265
160	Brad Richardson	35	F	$752,768
161	Trevor Daley	36	D	$752,319
162	Patrick Marleau	41	F	$752,298
163	Nolan Patrick	22	F	$750,223
164	Zach Bogosian	30	D	$750,001
165	Brett Ritchie	27	F	$749,543
166	Slater Koekkoek	26	D	$737,180
167	Devin Shore	26	F	$736,758
168	Curtis Lazar	25	F	$736,451
169	Henrik Borgstrom	23	F	$727,287
170	Tage Thompson	22	F	$719,897
171	Frederik Gauthier	25	F	$718,523
172	Stefan Noesen	27	F	$713,969
173	Nick Merkley	23	F	$705,783
174	Kevin Stenlund	23	F	$700,000
175	Denis Malgin	23	F	$700,000
176	Matt Luff	23	F	$700,000
177	Joshua Ho-Sang	24	F	$700,000
178	Tyler Motte	25	F	$700,000
179	Louie Belpedio	24	D	$700,000
180	Oliwer Kaski	25	D	$700,000
181	Zach Senyshyn	23	F	$700,000
182	Kyle Capobianco	23	F	$700,000
183	Max Veronneau	24	F	$700,000
184	Nico Sturm	25	F	$700,000
185	Peter Cehlarik	25	F	$700,000
186	Kevin Roy	27	F	$700,000
187	Sebastian Aho (d)	24	F	$700,000
188	Derrick Pouliot	26	D	$700,000
189	Aleksi Saarela	23	F	$700,000
190	Sheldon Dries	26	F	$700,000
191	Nikolay Goldobin	24	F	$700,000
192	Sheldon Rempal	25	F	$700,000
193	Deryk Engelland	38	D	$700,000
194	Andrej Sekera	34	D	$700,000
195	John Hayden	25	F	$700,000
196	Jimmy Schuldt	25	D	$700,000
197	Joel L’Esperance	25	F	$700,000
198	Valentin Zykov	25	F	$700,000
199	Tom Kuhnhackl	28	F	$700,000
200	Ryan Kuffner	24	F	$700,000

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Previous Capped Articles:

Projecting Salaries for Free Agent Goalies

Salary Increases from Soon to be Free Agents

UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 27 - 19:12	DET	vs	TOR
Dec 27 - 19:12	BUF	vs	CHI
Dec 27 - 19:12	CBJ	vs	BOS
Dec 27 - 19:12	N.J	vs	CAR
Dec 27 - 20:12	DAL	vs	MIN
Dec 27 - 20:12	STL	vs	NSH
Dec 27 - 21:12	UTA	vs	COL
Dec 27 - 22:12	S.J	vs	VGK