Ramblings: Goalies, Goalies, Goalies… Lundqvist, Vasilevskiy, Dubnyk to SJ? and more… (Oct 3)

Ian Gooding

2020-10-03

It's going to be weird not seeing Henrik Lundqvist between the pipes for the Rangers next season. Yet in spite of his struggles last season (3.16 GAA, .905 SV%), I'd expect him to land somewhere as a backup or a 1A. Lundqvist posted a strong high-danger save percentage (10th among 61 goalies that played at least 600 minutes, according to Natural Stat Trick) in spite of a defense that was among the worst in allowing both shots and high-danger scoring chances. His numbers could look more respectable next season with a different team, albeit in a reduced role than what we're used to with King Henrik.

Lundqvist joins the long list of goalies heading to free agency in a week. I don't think I've ever seen a list this long of free agent goalies.

While we're on the subject of backups and 1As, expect them to hold more value next season. A potentially compressed schedule along with increased focus on managing starts will play a role in evening out the overall value between goalies. Having an increased supply of viable goaltending options could bring down the overall value of the top-tier goalies relative to past seasons. Having said that, early goalie runs perpetually occur in fantasy drafts as fantasy owners fear getting stuck high and dry in net. For that reason, goaltender average draft positions may remain constant relative to previous seasons.

Below is where I have goalies presently ranked in the Top 100 Roto Rankings (another report pulled from Frozen Tools).

NameWGAASV%Top 100
Rank
ANDREI VASILEVSKIY352.560.91718
TUUKKA RASK262.120.92923
CONNOR HELLEBUYCK312.570.92232
BEN BISHOP212.500.92041
CARTER HART242.420.91455
JORDAN BINNINGTON302.560.91257
FREDERIK ANDERSEN292.850.90973
CAREY PRICE272.790.90974
ROBIN LEHNER192.890.92075
DARCY KUEMPER162.220.92880
ILYA SAMSONOV162.550.91391
JACOB MARKSTROM232.750.91892
IGOR SHESTERKIN102.520.93297

Andrei Vasilevskiy is the only goalie listed in the top 20 there, and I don't expect that to change after free agency. To me, he's in a league of his own for goalies in fantasy leagues. You can probably argue that a certain goalie is more talented than Vasilevskiy, and that he benefits from playing in front of a strong team. If someone like John Gibson is actually a more talented goalie than Vasilevskiy once you pull everything away, that won't matter when it comes to fantasy success. Wins and goals-against average might be more of a function of the team instead of the goalie, but you're not chasing the advanced stats in your fantasy league – only the simple ones. So maybe I can't understate the importance of the team when choosing a fantasy goalie.

It's the goalies that are below Vasilevskiy that could change. Given the number of goalies that will either be available as free agents or are on the trading block (Matt Murray, Marc-Andre Fleury, Darcy Kuemper, the Columbus pair, Devan Dubnyk – more on him later), the goaltending deck could be seriously shuffled once all the offseason transactions are said and done. A few of these goalies are within the Top 100 presently.

On July 1 October 9, Jacob Markstrom may be the prize goalie on the free agent market if Vancouver can't figure out a way to re-sign him. If he signs with a new club, Markstrom will become the clear number one there. Over the past three seasons, only six goalies have played in more games than Markstrom. His stock improved as he was able to backstop the Canucks to multiple series wins in the return to play, keeping them in games in which the ice was tilted toward their zone. The Canucks weren't a defensively strong team as constructed, but moving to a team like Detroit (a team rumored to be interested) would make Markstrom much riskier to own, given how he would probably struggle to earn wins.  

If Robin Lehner isn't signed by the Golden Knights by July 1, he might surpass Markstrom as the top available option. His value could be higher on the Top 100 list, but I'm going to wait on him for now before moving him up. If Vegas signs him and/or trades Fleury, then he's going to climb up this list for sure. But if Fleury sticks around, then I wonder if this could end up as a timeshare. Either way, he deserves to be in the top 100 right now. He proved in the playoffs why he should be Vegas' number one goalie, and there might not be a better spot for him.   

Kuemper is also a possibility to be traded given the situation in Arizona. I wonder what the turnover on that team will be like next season and whether they will continue to be a goalie-friendly system. Whether it's Kuemper or oft-injured Antti Raanta starting, an Arizona goalie could provide some solid value later in your draft. Who knows what that team will look like next season and whether they will still have their top defenseman in Oliver Ekman-Larsson.  

Igor Shesterkin owners were seen rejoicing when the Lundqvist buyout was announced. There's now a clear path for Shesterkin to be the starting goalie for the Rangers. In spite of the aforementioned goalie-unfriendly defense of the Rangers, Shesterkin posted the second-highest save percentage (.932 SV%) among goalies who played at least the same number of games (12 games). He's going to move up these rankings for sure. I could easily see him as a top-10 goalie in single-season drafts next season.

The goalie with the top save percentage, in case you're wondering? Chris Driedger, who posted a .928 SV% in 12 games for the Panthers. Yeah, Florida has that Bobrovsky guy signed for a lot more money and term, so even earning a timeshare seems like a long shot. Yet with strong play again next season, Driedger could well be on a similar UFA goalie list in a year's time.

For more goalie rankings, check out the recent Top 100 Keeper League rankings from Dobber. To be clear, the roto rankings I've listed above are for single-season (non-keeper) leagues, which explains why they'll be in a different order.

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A Devan Dubnyk/Martin Jones goaltending battle? Surely that can't inspire a ton of confidence for Sharks fans. Dubnyk has only one year left on a contract with a cap hit of $4.3 million, while the Sharks are on the hook with Jones for four more years at $5.75 million. Whether the Sharks actually acquire Dubnyk or set their sights on another goalie, I think they could surprise as a potential bounce-back Western Conference playoff team. Erik Karlsson, Logan Couture, and Tomas Hertl all missed significant time last season and should all be healthy when 2020-21 begins.

As for Dubnyk, his 2019-20 numbers (12-15-2, 3.35 GAA, .890 SV%) took a serious hit from what his numbers have been during his time with the Wild (2.32 GAA, .919 SV%). Keep in mind that Dubnyk's mind wasn't completely on hockey, as he took a leave of absence to be with his wife, who was dealing with a serious medical issue. Assuming his family's situation is better, Dubnyk might be able to rebound to some degree. Dubnyk did not see any action during the return to play, so I can imagine that Wild GM Bill Guerin is ready to move on from him. Whether it's with Alex Stalock and Kaapo Kahkonen between the pipes, or by trading for or signing another available goalie.

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More goalie news: The Jets have signed backup Laurent Brossoit to a one-year extension worth $1.5 million. Backing up Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck, Brossoit played in 19 games while posting a 3.28 GAA and .895 SV%, a significant dropoff from Hellebuyck's numbers. That's probably more of a reflection of the outstanding season Hellebuyck had playing behind an undermanned Jets defense. The contract will serve as a "prove-it" deal for Brossoit as he hopes to continue his NHL career.

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The Leafs have signed Denis Malgin to a one-year, $700,000 contract extension. He might have been one of those players that you had forgotten had switched teams not long before the season pause. He did not see any action during the Leafs' five-game play-in series with Columbus, and he has yet to record a point as a Leaf in eight regular-season games after being traded from Florida. The Swiss forward fits the role as a depth option for the Leafs, but at 23 years old he still might have some untapped potential.  

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In a minor trade on Friday, the Ottawa Senators acquired defenseman Josh Brown from the Panthers for a 2020 fourth-round pick. Brown recorded eight points (3g-5a) in 56 games, so he probably won't be on anyone's fantasy radar. He will likely serve as a depth defenseman for the Sens.

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For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.

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