Welcome back to your monthly installment of Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, which, for new readers, is a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Here though, instead of there being three bowls of porridge I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating just how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), or how cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or how “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

Our focus this week is on three rearguards: Thomas Chabot, Jeff Petry, and Tony DeAngelo. Think about them and decide as to which you believe was too hot, who was too cold, and which of the three was just right for 2019-20, and then continue reading to learn if your prognosticating was correct.

Thomas Chabot

Who is the real Thomas Chabot? The one who shined to the tune of 55 points in 70 games (64 point full season pace) in 2018-19? Or is he the player who tallied 16 fewer points in one more game (45 point full season pace) for 2019-20? The answer is.……. the 2018-19 version, as he's yet to embark upon his magical fourth season and, more importantly, was victimized by some very bad, and very unsustainable, luck in 2019-20.

Perhaps the key stat for Chabot is he had a mere three two-point games this season, and 33 contests with exactly one point. Or put another way, he amassed his 39 points in only 36 games. Why is that meaningful? For 2019-20, only seven defensemen in the entire league had points in more games than his 36 contests; and if you average their point totals, you get 57, or 18 more than Chabot posted, with the lowest total among them being 45 and the second-lowest being 53. Also, it's not like this is typical for Chabot, as last season he tallied his 55 points in just 39 games with at least one point, or only three more games with a point than he took to amass 39 this season. In fact, looking at all other players who had point totals of 39 or lower in 2019-20, the most number of games in which any had a point was 31, or five fewer than Chabot. Long story short, Chabot should've had at least 5-10 more points just from multi-point games that somehow unsustainably eluded him.

On top of that, Chabot hit eight posts this season, which was the second-highest total among all defensemen. So he was literally inches away from several more goals. And even beyond that, his shooting percentage was half what it was last season despite him having taken 186 SOG in 71 games versus 185 in 70 games last season and similar ratios in both seasons of SOG from 0-15, 16-30, and 31+ feet. So there too he probably deserved close to a handful of added points in the form of goals.

Moreover, although the Senators were not as offensively potent in 2019-20 as they were in 2018-19, averaging 2.67 goals per game versus 2.92, Chabot saw almost two minutes more ice time this season versus last and upped his PP TOI per game to 3:15, so he should have picked up more points in the normal course due to the added ice time. Also, despite Ottawa having the league's worst PP, Chabot still was particularly snake bit there, as he had the fifth most PP minutes of all NHL rearguards, yet his 11 PPPts ranked tied for 31st, with the next lowest PPT output coming from the d-man with the 20th most PP minutes. 

It's very clear from the above that Chabot might have had one of the most unsustainably unlucky seasons I've encountered in all my time doing this Goldipucks column. On top of that, Chabot will be entering his magical fourth season and breakout threshold in 2020-21, so he should be improving just in the normal course. And the Ottawa team around him has nowhere to go but up. Chabot was much TOO COLD in 2019-20, and a return to a 60+ point scoring pace is all but inevitable for 2020-21 given all the factors that were working against him in 2019-20. His rating is 1.25 for 2019-20, which I believe is the coldest rating I've ever given. Do yourself a favor and try to steal Chabot from whoever owns him in your league, or be sure to land him at your draft, as you'll be well rewarded for doing so.

Jeff Petry

In tallying 11 goals and 40 points for 2019-20, the newly re-signed Petry became just one of six d-men with 10+ goals and 40+ points in each of the last three seasons, with each of the other five having scored at a 61+ point pace at least one season in their career. So is it time to anticipate big scoring gains in 2020-21? In a word, no, as due to his age and his team we should instead expect more of the same from him in terms of 2020-21 production.

The good news for Petry is for the first time he saw more PP minutes than Shea Weber. But before we get too excited, that meant taking the ice for only 53.6% of Montreal's minutes on the man advantage. In fact, for 2019-20 just three teams (Arizona, Dallas, and Detroit) had a rearguard lead the team in PP minutes but take the ice for a lower percentage of its PP time. As such, the 23 PPPts that Petry posted in 2017-18 is highly unlikely to be equalled again. Even still, it did pave the way for him to get more PP minutes, which should continue in that his PPPt to game ratio was comparable to Weber's. Moreover, Petry produced PPPts that were in line with his PP minutes, as he received the 26th most PP minutes among all defensemen in 2019-20 and tied for the 31st most PPPts, despite the Habs having only the 22nd best PP in the league for 2019-20. So we shouldn't expect any big changes in PP time or scoring.

Petry's overall TOI increased by 32 seconds versus last season even as his percentage of SH duty dropped, and his SOG rate rose from 2.09 in 2018-19 to 2.22 for 2019-20. But despite the 2.22 SOG per game is a career-best, it was front-loaded, as he had 103 SOG in 43 games in Q1 and Q2, but only 55 in 28 second-half contests. He had a similar pattern of decreasing SOG and production as the 2018-19 season unfolded; however, the difference there was it due to the return of Weber to the line-up after a Q1 absence. This season Petry kept his "spot" despite fewer SOG and points in the second half and Weber being in the mix, which, along with his Petry's contact, bodes well for Petry for 2020-21.

Something also just seemed to click for Petry starting in 2017-18, as counting that season his IPP has been rising with each passing campaign, from 44.7% to 45.1%, to 47.6% for 2019-20. Could it rise even further? Probably not much if at all, as the production of Montreal forwards likely has bottomed out. Still, this consistency in his IPP lends further legitimacy to his recent production numbers, as does his offensive zone starting percentage being between 47.8% and 51.1% in these three seasons, with his 49.9% for 2019-20 being right smack in the middle and him having a consistent – and reasonable – 48.5% and 48.3% secondary assists percentage in 2018-19 and 2019-20 respectively. 

The days of thinking Petry's production is a fluke is over. Although at 32 he's not likely to have another gear, his new deal is a vote of confidence and signifies he's "the guy" now for Montreal's blueline offense more so than Weber. Petry's metrics suggest his recent scoring rates are real; and although he might see some benefit from Montreal improving as a team and taking on a larger role than Weber, let's not forget he plays in a Claude Julien system. All things considered, Petry's 2019-20 was JUST RIGHT and he receives a rating of 5.5 because we should expect about 45 points from him again, with a slight chance of more if the Habs improve as a whole or just concerning their PP.

Tony DeAngelo

The 2014 first-rounder had 22 points in his first 70 NHL games between Arizona and the Rangers, leading some to wonder if he was going to pan out. Then in 2018-19, he opened eyes with 30 points in 61 games, with 21 of those points coming in his final 36 contests, and, in the process, DeAngelo solidifying his spot on the depth chart for the Rangers. Then this season he exploded to 53 points in 68 games, or one more point than in his first 131 games combined. Still, just 24, has DeAngelo arrived as a truly elite defenseman, especially playing for the up and coming Rangers? I'm afraid not.

For starters, DeAngelo scored at a .78 point per game pace despite averaging just 19:17 per game in 2019-20. Why is that significant? Because among the 52 instances of defensemen from 2010-11 onward who averaged at least 0.75 points per game in a season while playing in at least 40+ games, DeAngelo's 19:17 average was not only the lowest but the lowest by a full minute! And there were only five other instances among the 52 where the defenseman failed to average at least two minutes more per game than DeAngelo. So that right there is a big red flag in terms of the sustainability of DeAngelo's scoring rate.

On top of that, New York also has Adam Fox in the fold, who scored at a 49 point pace for 2019-20, ending with 11 points in his last nine contests and skating for more minutes than DeAngelo in New York's three playoff contests. Can both be great rearguard scorers? Yes, the talent is seemingly there; however, since 2010-11 there have only been six instances of a team having two 50+ point scoring defensemen in the same season. Interestingly though, three of those instances came in 2017-18, and looking closely at the six who did so that season, the lowest average ice time per game for any was 21:36, and all but two averaged 24:00 or more per game. So the fact that Adam Fox is in the mix and neither of them are big minute eaters, cuts against at least one of them – and perhaps even both – being able to top the 50 point mark in 2020-21.

Looking at other metrics, DeAngelo achieved his high scoring rate despite only averaging 2.19 SOG per game. If we again look at those same 52 instances, just five did so despite taking fewer SOG per game than DeAngelo. And two of those instances were by rearguards who, like DeAngelo, had a double-digit shooting percentage. What happened to those two in the following season? One was Erik Gustafsson in 2018-19, who we know all too well had a quite poor 2019-20, while the other was Lubimor Visnovsky back in 2010-11, when he posted 68 points in 81 games, only to follow that with 27 points in 68 games in 2011-12. So DeAngelo's low SOG total combined with his high shooting percentage does not bode well for him to thrive in 2020-21.

Beyond these factors, there's the matter of DeAngelo's IPP for 2019-20, which was 56.4%, for the eighth-highest IPP among all 40+ game defensemen this season. And although the list of those ahead of him reads like a who's who of currently great (John Carlson, Roman Josi), once great (Erik Karlsson), and future great (Rasmus Dahlin) rearguards, except Dahlin all, had at least one prior season with an IPP of 55%, whereas DeAngelo went from 41.7% in 2018-19 all the way up to 56.4% this season. So he's in fine company, but there is less certainty about him being able to be an IPP machine, particularly with the various other factors noted above working against him.

Do I think DeAngelo is at risk of becoming Gustafsson 2.0? No, because he did this at a younger age and he's on a highflying team. But do I believe DeAngelo will sport a scoring pace as high as 2019-20 in 2020-21, or perhaps even again at all? Almost assuredly not for the 2020-21 season, and maybe never again. With Fox in the mix, and the various other factors suggesting DeAngelo's 2019-20 scoring rate is unsustainable, I think he's more likely a 50 point defensemen for 2020-21, with a risk to drop down to 45 if his overall ice time isn't raised and he cedes PP1 time to Fox, who many think is poised to become "the guy" for blueline offense in New York this coming season.

For those who own DeAngelo in a keeper, I'd suggest trying to sell high, and I'd avoid him in one-year leagues since the price needed to get him will likely be too high given his all but inevitable drop in scoring rate. In sum, DeAngelo's 2019-20 was TOO HOT, and he gets a rating of 9.25 to account for his likely drop in future production.

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Questions for Mailbag column

It's never too early to get me questions for the next mailbag. The sooner you send them, the more likely they are to be included and the deeper dive I can perform in answering them. To get questions to me, you can either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.