Ever since Bryan Little's injuries cropped up a few years ago, the Jets have long been in need of a second-line centre. They traded for Kevin Hayes at the deadline in 2019, and traded for Cody Eakin in 2020. They also added Stastny a couple years ago and he was wonderful for them.

Well, the team is hoping lightning strikes twice as Stastny was traded by Vegas back to Winnipeg in exchange for a fourth-round pick in 2022 and depth blue liner Carl Dahlstrom. (Dahlstrom’s DP profile found here.)

Stastny will carry a cap hit of $6.5M for Winnipeg. This clears cap space for the Golden Knights and gives Winnipeg a temporary 2C, hopefully until Cole Perfetti is ready for those duties. Let's break this down.

Winnipeg gets

Stastny isn't quite the same player he was five years ago. There was a time he was reliable for 20-plus goals a year like clockwork. He hasn't reached 20 goals since 2014 and that should be seen as his ceiling. But he's still a good playmaker: CJ Turtoro's viz has him nearly in the 90^th percentile of shot assists, which is a way to predict future goals. He's also good-to-very-good with his controlled exits/entries:

It should be said those numbers declined in 2019-20. The shot assists fell to the 70^th percentile and his exit/entry percentages weren’t great. It's not unreasonable to think a guy who turns 35 in December is declining, but it should be noted that 70^th percentile for shot assists is still good, just not elite. And when combined with the fact that he's still good defensively, this is still a good player. Barring a cataclysmic one-year decline, he should be a good second-line centre for the Jets.

Let's not forget how good the line of Laine-Stastny-Ehlers was, either. In over 350 minutes together between the regular season and playoffs back in 2018, the trio outscored the opposition 24-12 at 5-on-5. Now, the underlying metrics weren't flattering, but we know Laine has a knack for breaking expected goals models because of his elite shooting. Combine that with Stastny being a wonderful playmaker (well, two years ago, anyway), and them being well above average offensively kind of makes sense. This is a big upgrade for the guys I assume will be Stastny’s wingers, Laine and Ehlers.

Now that Stastny is back in the lineup, and Perfetti is a year or two away, does this change their minds about potentially trading one of Laine or Ehlers? We'll find out.

If everyone is healthy this should put an end to Blake Wheeler as 2C. It also pushes guys like Adam Lowry and Andrew Copp – assuming no other acquisitions or trades – back to the bottom-6 where they can be more impactful. That's bad news for their fantasy value, if only because it means fewer minutes with worse offensive players.

Vegas gets

Chandler Stephenson was re-signed recently, and he did spend a lot of time as the 2C for Vegas last year between Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone. Their results and underlyings were very good, too. Maybe the team thinks he can just step in and take that role for less money. I don't think Stephenson is as good as Stastny, but at half the price, it's not a bad bet.

Nicolas Roy seems to be assured his third-line centre spot for now. He had a good postseason, and he and Alex Tuch seemed to have good chemistry together. It doesn't change Roy's situation, but more solidifies his role.

The real interesting thing here is what they do with Cody Glass. He spent half the season in the NHL last year and was fine. They could hand him the 2C role, but it really does feel like he'll have to earn it. Stephenson won't look bad between Pacioretty/Stone, so Glass will really have to wow them. At the least, there is one less impediment now.

Dahlstrom is just AHL depth unless there’s something massive I’ve missed.

Who this helps

Patrik Laine

Chandler Stephenson

Nikolaj Ehlers

Cody Glass

Blake Wheeler

Who this hurts

Mark Stone/Max Pacioretty

Adam Lowry

Andrew Copp

Jack Roslovic