Eastern Edge: Examining the new situations for Hall, Smith, and Gustafsson
Brennan Des
2020-10-13
In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll look at a few of the recent free agent signings from a fantasy perspective. The Dobber team has done an amazing job of breaking down these moves as soon as they happen, so be sure to check the website's front page for instant analysis of the latest free agent signings and trades! A lot of moves have been made already, so leave a comment if there's a particular situation you want me to take a closer look at in future articles!
To the surprise of many, Hall signed a one-year contract with the Sabres for $8 million. I think most people assumed that he was looking to join a playoff contender after being starved of playoff hockey for most of his career. However, the opportunity to play with Jack Eichel, under the guidance of coach Ralph Krueger (whom also coached Hall in Edmonton), proved tempting enough for the 28-year-old winger to sign in Buffalo. I personally think this is a pretty smart move on Hall's part. He gets to play alongside Eichel, which should help him rack up the points and boost his value, ultimately resulting in an even bigger salary on his next contract. Given that logic, I think a large part of convincing Hall to sign with the Sabres involved the assurance that he was going to play on a line with Eichel. So, to kick off next season, Buffalo's top line should consist of Hall, Eichel and one of Sam Reinhart, Victor Olofsson, or Jeff Skinner. While this isn't great news for two of those three wingers that don't get to play with Eichel, the second line should be much better this year than it has been in years past, now that Eric Staal is centering it.
The idea of a Hall-Eichel duo has most hockey fans drooling – and for good reason. Eichel has evolved into a superstar over the past few seasons, with his point-per-game production consistently improving over the last three years (0.96, 1.06, 1.15). Eichel's offensive output has been so impressive because it came without the support of a complementary 'superstar' – he doesn't rely on other players to help him tally points, he makes those around him better. We saw Jeff Skinner score 40 goals beside Eichel in 2018-2019, only to fall below the 20-goal mark in 2019-2020 when he was no longer playing with Eichel. I think Hall is the most offensively-gifted winger that Eichel has ever played with, and it's likely that the two players are able to achieve new heights together that they were unable to achieve individually. From a fantasy perspective, I think Hall signing in Buffalo should boost the fantasy value of Taylor Hall, Jack Eichel and the third player that rounds out the line.
After converting on less than 20-percent of their chances over the past three years, I think Buffalo's power-play unit also sees a big boost now that they've added another offensive threat. In all honesty, I would have said that even before Hall signed, as Rasmus Dahlin should take another step forward next year and I think he's going to do a great job quarterbacking the top unit.
I know I've spent a lot of time discussing the likely scenario of Hall playing beside Eichel next season. However, I also want to mention another scenario – which may be less likely – but seems beneficial to the team overall. You see, the Sabres haven't had the luxury of depth-scoring in recent years. The top line has always been reliable, with Jack Eichel driving offense, but a lack of scoring from the second, third and fourth lines has limited the team's overall success. So, while Hall will probably start next season on a line with Eichel, there's always the option to split the two players up, so that the team has two very strong scoring lines. Otherwise, shutting down Buffalo's top line would mean stifling the team's offense – which would once again be the recipe to beat the Sabres. With that being said, the projected second line of Skinner-Staal-Olofsson represents a stronger second unit than the team has had in the past. If that trio is successful, then there won't be any need to split Hall and Eichel up.
Check out Mike's thoughts on the Hall signing in Tuesday's Ramblings and Ian's instant analysis here.
The 31-year-old winger signed a three-year deal with the Bruins, worth $3.1 million per season. I see this as a good move for the Bruins, but I don't think it has a huge impact on Smith's fantasy value. As Ian mentioned in his instant analysis of the signing, Boston's top line of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak is unlikely to be split up given their success in recent years, which means Smith will either be playing on the team's second or third line – a similar role to the one he played in Nashville.
With that being said, if Smith is placed on the second line, there's potential for him to see 16-17 minutes of ice time per game – representing a significant increase in opportunity from the 13-15 minutes he had been averaging in recent seasons with Nashville. Considering Smith's status as a high-volume shooter and even-strength goal-scorer, those extra minutes could help boost his shot and goal totals – ultimately making him a more valuable fantasy hockey asset. At this point, I think Craig Smith is still an under-the-radar option in most fantasy formats, so you can snag him in the later rounds of your draft and end up with a player who puts up 25 goals, 50 points and 200+ shots.
As Mike highlighted in Tuesday's Ramblings, we can't have lofty expectations for Smith's power-play production, even if he gets a spot on the top unit. The reason for this being that Boston's power play is primarily driven by the top line (Marchand, Bergeron and Pastrnak), with the fourth forward playing a less prominent role. Although, the top unit may adopt a different approach next season without Torey Krug to man the blue line – so it's possible that Craig Smith sees a bigger role on the man advantage than would be expected.
The 28-year-old defenseman put his name on the map during the 2018-2019 season, when he tallied an impressive 60 points through 79 games. Eighteen of those points came with the man advantage, as he was trusted on the team's top unit – averaging three minutes of power-play time per game. Unfortunately, Gustafsson was unable to maintain that level of offensive production last season, as put up just nine points on the power-play despite seeing similar minutes with the man advantage.
While his offensive creativity is undeniable, his focus on scoring has resulted in frequent struggles defensively. So, it'll be interesting to see if he can develop his defensive game in Philadelphia, or if the team just embraces his offensive strengths and plays him in a scoring role – which is a weird thing to say about a defenseman, but here we are. In any case, I think Gustafsson gets a shot on Philly's top power-play unit, and his fantasy value will depend on what he does in that role. Considering he's coming off a disappointing season which saw him score at a 36-point pace, some fantasy managers will avoid Gustafsson and choose to believe he's a one hit wonder. I personally think he displayed an impressive upward trajectory during his first three NHL seasons and saw a minor bump in the road during his fourth year. I'm willing to take a chance on him bouncing back in year five because I think he's currently undervalued, making for a great low-risk, high-reward option in most fantasy formats.
Dobber himself provided a really insightful analysis of Gustafsson signing with the Flyers, check it out here!