Two weeks ago we took a look at Matt Murray and Devan Dubnyk moving cities, and last week, inspired by the Taylor Hall move, we examined big-name wingers on the move over the last several seasons. This week, after some positive comments and questions about goalies we are essentially going to combine these two approaches and get some historical perspective on our goalie moves.
This week on Frozen Tool Forensics: Goalie Moves Past and Present
To start, let's quickly define the kinds of things we are going to be looking at. I think the interesting question here is this: what happens to goalies after they move teams? Do they perform better? Worse? And more specifically what happens to goalies who have been fantasy relevant in their prior season? To really answer these questions for specific goalies we would have to dive deep into their personal histories, their individual numbers, their old team numbers, and their new teams' numbers, as well as roster configurations and coaches' tendencies.
For example, If we wanted to examine Jacob Markstrom now in Calgary it might be helpful to know that he is moving from a Vancouver team that averaged 2.55 expected goals against a game to a better situation in Calgary where they averaged 2.4 expected goals against per game. It might also be good to know that in Vancouver Markstrom was able to start the equivalent of 56ish games per year over the last three seasons, but is moving to a team where David Rittich has started 45-50 games per season over the last two. That might mean more of a timeshare for Markstrom.
We won't be diving into that depth for each of the moves that were made in 2020, but instead taking the Hall approach of looking over the past several seasons for goalies who moved teams and see what patterns emerge. Our primary drivers are going to be usage (games played) and quality (save percentage).
The 2020 offseason