The Journey: Prospect OffSeason Stock Values

Dave Hall

2020-10-24

It's every fantasy owners (annual) dream to see their highly anticipated prospects name etched onto an NHL team's opening roster. There is no better feeling in fantasy than when a draftee from years prior finally develops and produces. It’s a feeling that us hockey nerds thrive on.

Yet, just when you think it's their year, and your fantasy squad will finally reap the benefits of your long-awaited patience…the club makes an off-season acquisition. Now, sometimes, that deal benefits your asset – perhaps it’s a solid player that will boost the chances of your prospect's production. On the other hand, it could chew up a roster spot, knocking your player right out of the lineup. Both are just realities when dealing with prospects.

Based on moves we have seen thus far, here are some of my projected fantasy “stock effects”. Many things will come into play when looking at potential opportunities for young players, including trades, signings, injury, even the upcoming expansion draft will take play with some of these moves. But, for now, here are my takes.

Let me know if you had any others in mind.

Andrew Peeke, D, Blue Jackets

Transaction: Columbus trades Markus Nuttivaara (D) and Ryan Murray (D).

Peeke continues to fly under the radar in most (fantasy) prospect conversations, which playing in Columbus will certainly do. However, at 22, Peeke is budding into a very promising top-four defender and carries a versatile bag of mid-ranged fantasy potentials.

He is a strong two-way player with both the size (6-3) and skating ability to become a consistent threat at the NHL level. After just a few months of rookie deployment in the AHL last season, he grabbed his first cup of coffee with the big club. Through 22 games, he posted the following totals while logging minimal third-pairing minutes:

  • Points – 3 (1G +2A)
  • Shots – 23
  • Blocks – 21
  • Hits – 25

Moving these two defenders, more specifically Nutivaara, who occupies the right-side, opens up a window for him to slide in as a regular on CBJ's backend. Of course, goliaths such as Zach Werenski and Seth Jones will eat the majority of minutes, making his icetime somewhat sheltered. Yet he should be given the opportunity to play on a consistent basis. A perfect sleeper pick for the deeper league formats.

Fantasy Stock: Rise

Jake Oettinger, G, Stars

Transaction: Stars re-sign Anton Khudobin to a three-year extension.

It wasn’t much, but fantasy owners were finally blessed with a glimpse of what Jake Oettinger can do in an NHL uniform this summer. On two occasions, the 2017 first-rounder stepped in relief of Khodobin, stopping all eight shots faced through 36 minutes of play. That’s right, eight saves, and I hope you enjoyed each of them. Nonetheless, it did serve as a nice reminder that the former OHL standout is knocking on the door of a potential backup role, possibly as early as next season. That was assuming Khudobin would test free agency.

Unfortunately for Jake, and fantasy owners alike, the Stars managed to lock "Dobby" up for the next three years, clearly indicating that Oettinger's immediate home lies with their affiliates in the minors. Of course, with Bishop’s history of missing time, and expansion draft looming, things can change quickly. Should they be in need, you better believe that Jake is the first in line to receive a call.

At just 21, this shouldn’t pose as a huge barrier to his overall upside, as it’s likely he would not snag the starting jobs for years down the road. Even so, this puts a slight damper on his short-term potential. Back to prospect land he goes.

Fantasy Stock: Fall

Noah Dobson, D, Islanders

Transaction: Islanders trade Devon Toews to Colorado.

Dobson making the team out of camp was inevitable, especially since he snuck in 34 games last season and looked right at home. However, with Devon Toews out of the picture, not only do his minutes increase, but his chances of slotting onto one of the club's power-play units become a very probable scenario. Perhaps, even the top unit at some point.

The 21-year-old shows tremendous upside and is poised to become a strong option for the Islanders for years to come. I personally have him very high on my breakout candidates for the season, as do most I am sure. This move only fast-tracks those inevitabilities.

Fantasy Stock: Rise

Lias Andersson, C, Kings

Transaction: Rangers trade Lias Andersson to LA.

The writing was on the wall – it was time for the two parties to take separate paths. After a few seasons of back-and-forth banter between the two, the Rangers saw an opportunity to move up in the recent entry draft. They pulled the trigger and sent their former 2017 seventh-overall asset to the Kings for a 60th pick (second-round). 

The 22-year-old joins a very strong core of budding studs and will look to resurrect his current downtrend with a fresh slate in Hollywood. The skill is certainly there to do so, and with no distractions lingering on his shoulders, there is still time to turn a new chapter. 

After investing three years into Andersson, a change of scenery should come as music to fantasy owners’ ears, as it’s been a long struggle to watch from the sidelines. I advise that you take him off your trading blocks for now and see where this goes.

Fantasy Stock: Rise

Cayden Primeau, G, Canadiens

Transaction: Montreal acquires, and signs Jake Allen to a two-year deal.

Call me crazy, but I was a true believer that this was the year we would see Primeau take on the role as the backup to Carey Price's heir. Although he's just 21, his strong play in Laval as a rookie provided great promise, while his short two-game stint with Montreal proved he could hang with the big boys. Clearly, that was not the case. The Canadiens went the safe route – trading for, and finally signing Jake Allen to a two-year deal. 

Of course, much like Oettinger's case, there are circumstances in which we could see Primeau in a Habs uniform next season. But, for now, it’s back to the minors. In all honesty, it's likely the best scenario for his overall growth. But unfortunately, that scenario does not align with owners’ impatient fantasy tactics. Not to worry, the potential is real and he should be dominating the crease in just a few short years.

Fantasy Stock: Fall

Evgenii Dadonov, F, Senators

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Transaction: Senators sign Evgenii Dadonov to a three-year deal.

Have you invested in a young Ottawa Senators prospect? Well, chances are that you are in for a fun ride – at least in the long term scope. To the surprise of most, the Sens added a top-line, proven 60-plus producer in Evgenii Dadonov, which surely benefits the stock of the club's immediate offensive potential. 

No, Dadonov is by no means a superstar with the means to turn the entire dynamics of a team around. However, he does add a strong veteran presence, capable of elevating the play of those around him. While the argument can be made that he is a product of his former linemates, I believe he has the talent to produce without the likes of Barkov and Huberdeau.

I love this move by the club, and truly believe that this allows them to ice a legitimate top line, alongside Brady Tkachuk and "said” prospect. Enjoy the run, folks.

Fantasy Stock: Rise

Evan Bouchard, D, Oilers

Transaction: Oilers sign Tyson Barrie to a one-year deal.

Bouchard left it all on the table during his AHL rookie campaign – shooting at will, while posting respectable offensive numbers. Taking that confidence into next season, the prospect of him cracking a spot on the Oilers top four is probable. What’s more, given his heavy shot, and history of quarterbacking, there was a beaming opportunity for him to see time on the man advantage, perhaps even their high-octane PP1. Especially with Oscar Klefbom a possibility to miss the entire 2020-21 season.

That fruition came crashing down after the club signed Barrie to a very reasonable one-year deal. It's clear why they made that deal, and it’s not to have Tyson sit on the bench while Connor McDavid and Leon Draisailt go to work on the man advantage. 

For now, Bouchard busting out as an immediate top-unit power-play threat seems like a distant pipedream. However, that does not take away from his overall upside, as he continues to show potential in causing real damage to the scoresheet. His short-term stock may fall slightly, but in the grand scheme of things, he remains a strong defensive option.

Fantasy Stock: Fall (short term)

Calgary's Goaltending Pipeline 

Transaction: Flames sign Jacob Markstrom to a six-year contract.

The crease has now been spoken for, and whether it’s the highly touted Dustin Wolf, Tyler Parsons, or 25-year-old Artyom Zagidulin, owners stock options just took a hit. At 30, Markstrom still has a few seasons of solid hockey left in him, and while he may not fulfill his full six-year tenure as a starter, it certainly stands as a possibility. 

Luckily, for Dustin Wolf (19) enthusiasts, this allows a solid timeframe for him to develop, while he awaits his shot at the top. Yet, this stands as a potential blip in his 2-4 year expectancy. As for the others in the pipeline hoping for an opportunity, this could spell the end of that road in Calgary. On a positive note, the depth looks strong between the pipes throughout the organization.

Fantasy Stock: Fall

Henrik Borgstrom, C, Panthers

Transaction: Panthers sign Alexander Wennberg to a one-year deal.

Is Alexander Wennberg a number two center? That question is still up for debate. Yet, assuming that’s where the Panthers peg him, he should receive a second chance at running his own line. For me, this jumps out as a perfect opportunity to slot in their struggling prospect Borgstrom as a 3C and take another swing at him becoming an NHL player. 

The skills are certainly there. He just needs to find a role where he can channel them, and taking him out of the top-six limelight could be the answer. Yes, they have already given him an opportunity in a 3C spot, and it failed to ignite any fires. However, with new recruits such as Grigori Denisenko and Vinnie Hinostroza alongside him, the result could prove to be contrary to the past.

Of course, the addition of recently drafted Anton Lundell will surely increase pressure for him to perform, as the Finnish pivot already looks ready to dive in headfirst. As a Borgstrom owner myself, here's to hoping for one last kick at the can.

Fantasy Stock: Rise 

Dylan Cozens, C, Sabres

Transaction: Sabres add multiple pieces including Taylor Hall, Eric Staal, and Cody Eakin

Aside from Taylor Hall, none of the added names are large game-breakers. However, they do provide a nice boost to the overall core they will now have in Buffalo, adding some much needed two-way options. It also allows head coach Ralph Krueger to bring Cozens in as a winger, giving him less responsibility and more opportunity to focus on developing his game and taking it to that next level.

The options for Cozens to play alongside a high-end player is boosted tremendously, both at even-strength and on the man-advantage. If he can find time with Hall and Jack Eichel, his overall stock could get quite interesting. I personally see the Sabres being a large candidate for a bounce back, and Cozens could be one of the key cogs in that change. 

Fantasy Stock: Rise

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Thanks for tuning in for another week. Feel free to find me on Twitter @hall1289 to let me know how you feel about my predictions or any others that I missed.

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PATRIK LAINE MTL
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28.2 GABRIEL VILARDI MARK SCHEIFELE KYLE CONNOR
16.5 COLE PERFETTI VLADISLAV NAMESTNIKOV NIKOLAJ EHLERS
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