Back in April we did a small mini-series about fourth-year breakout candidates. In the first article we used the 4th Year Breakout Report and some sorting to come up with a list of potential break-out candidates. In the second, we examined a few in more depth, looking at their specific prospects in the lineup. When we had some additional data (i.e. playoff games) we returned to that list in the middle of September. I bring all of this up as these are excellent reference points for the type of work we have today. While the fourth-year candidate is an exciting phenomenon, it is really capturing the idea that the stars are aligning so to speak – younger players are being given the opportunity to match their growing skills. This theme is not specifically restricted to players in their fourth year though. In this article I wanted to take a look at the next class of up-and-coming players.

Really what I wanted to get at in this article was players who are in their mid-20s (so in, or entering their peak), who have a few seasons under their belt (to get some reps and seasoning in), and have shown some indication of success. There is some overlap between these lists and the fourth-year breakout, but here we have additional players as well. I filtered out players who have broken out in a big way (your Leon Draisaitls, Aleksander Barkovs etc.) because extolling their virtues doesn't really help anyone at this point. I wanted to find players who were demonstrating growth in their seasons to date, but are not necessarily your household names.

I would like then, to introduce you to the first data set. In the table below we have eleven players who have met the criteria outlined above (age, NHL experience), but have also demonstrated several years of consistent improvement using the metric of points per game. The data reflected below (unless otherwise stated) is from the 19-20 season.

Each of these players has increased their point per game metrics for each of the last two seasons (starting with 2017-18 data). They are in fact the only players in this age group/experience level to do so. A couple did only by the skin of their teeth (looking at you Tom Wilson, and Frank Vatrano), but several have seen very consistent and pretty impressive growth. Alex Iafallo has doubled his point production over the past two seasons, consistently showing solid growth, as has Scott Laughton and Frank Vatrano. The two I am most interested in on this list are probably Jakub Vrana and Anthony Mantha. In addition to being two of the most productive players on this list, their growth has been some of the strongest as well. A guy like Bo Horvat also shows up as being productive, but in this case his production has been so consistent (a good thing really) that it doesn't really seem like he is going to be poised to take a next step as it were. Both Mantha and Vrana, don't seem to have hit their peak yet. So let's take a minute a look at Mantha and Vrana's spot in the depth chart.

Jakub Vrana

Vrana's production is solid on a per-60 basis, but as long as he is getting less than 15 minutes a night a real breakout isn't likely to happen. On the positive side he did see a career high time on ice at both even strength and on the power play. He spent a lot of 2019-20 with T.J. Oshie, but his center vacillated between Lars Eller, Nicklas Backstrom, and Evgeny Kuznetsov. Staying with Oshie does likely mean a second line role (stuck behind Alex Ovechkin), but he really needs to increase that time on ice, both at even strength and on the power play. For comparison Oshie saw over 18 minutes a night in total ice time, and over three minutes on the power-play. Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Oshie are all getting older so there might be some time to share, but the core in Washington has been locked in for a while and it makes it hard to like Vrana a lot more in 2020-2021 than in previous seasons.

Anthony Mantha

There is really nothing not to like about Mantha and his current deployment. He put up a career-high pace, but was limited by injuries in 2019-20. When he was in the lineup (for 43 games) he played with Dylan Larkin and Tyler Bertuzzi at even strength and on the power play. He was getting 18+ minutes a night and over three minutes on the power play. If there is a desirable spot to be in Detroit, that is it. His underlying numbers (personal and team shooting percentage, IPP etc.) were all strong. The only risk in Detroit is a 'spread-the-offense' kind of approach that would see Mantha separated from Larkin. Import Bobby Ryan, and previous acquisition Robby Fabbri could be shuffled around or take a top line role so Mantha can beef up the second line, or maybe they want to give Filip Zadina a chance to run with Larkin.  A second line role in Detroit is not somewhere Mantha wants to be so while all past indicators are a go keep an eye out for line rotations.

Our second list is very similar to the first, though these players have not had a direct upward trajectory. They are all more productive in 2019-20 than they were in 2017-18, but may have hit a bump or two along the way. This list contains 15 players, and the ones in bold are players who hit a three-season-high in points per game in 2019-20.

There are a couple of interesting things here. Andre Burakovsky certainly had a large jump in points-per- game in 2019-20. It is great to see, though unfortunately he was the beneficiary of the injury bug striking Colorado hard and got to spend a lot more time with Nathan MacKinnon at even strength and the power-play than he otherwise would, or can reasonably expect in the future.

Kevin Fiala saw a similar jump in pace, but in his case his change in placement seems a bit more secure. He increased his time on ice throughout the season, finishing with over 17 minutes a night and scoring at a point per game for a large chunk of the year. His underlying numbers are a bit high, so we might not be expecting that pace from him in 2020-21, but there is a lot here to like.

William Nylander had the highest point-per-game pace in 2020-21 and also had a strong 17-18. Deployment has been an issue with Nylander in the past, but 2019-20 saw him get a career high 18.5 minutes a night with about three minutes a night on the power play. His linemates were strong as well, lining up with Auston Matthews for the majority of his even strength shifts, and on the top power play. His shooting percentage was a little high compared to his career average, but he has also never been in a position to play with the players, or in the situations he found himself in in 2019-20. As long as he can keep his deployment (and he should be in line to play with either John Tavares or Matthews at even strength in 2020-21) he looks like a strong bet to put up a similar pace.

That is all for this week. Thanks for reading.

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