Ramblings – Thoughts on Ho-Sang, Bracco, Galchenyuk, Honka, the Leafs and more (Nov 02)
Dobber
2020-11-02
The 15th annual Fantasy Hockey Guide is out and ready for download! Also – the Draft List too! A few errors reported to me, mostly minor stuff, that I fixed and re-posted the Guide Sunday. The biggest one was probably when I manually moved Guentzel and Zucker back and forth on different lines – and didn't move their projections. Oops! So for a few hours I had Guentzel projections beside Zucker, which I'm sure raised a few eyebrows. The Draft List always had them accurate of course, but the Guide had them flipped for a few hours. To my knowledge, this is the only fantasy hockey guide available right now. I love it when the only choice is mine or nothing. Good for business!
The Kahun signing is already updated in the guide – with full line combo adjustments
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There's a pretty huge thing happening in America Tuesday, something that will impact the entire world. Media everywhere is making a huge deal about it. That's right, Nashville goaltender Pekka Rinne turns 38! Let's all wish him a Happy Birthday!
And, hey. Americans. On your way to picking up that birthday card for our favorite Finn, make sure you stop at the polls and place your vote. May as well, since you're already out and about.
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In trying to write, edit, format and push out a fantasy guide in three weeks instead of the usual four weeks, I had two of our senior writers pinch-hit for me the last two weeks. I hope you enjoyed what Alex MacLean and Brennan DeSouza brought to the table.
And now I have lots of catching up to do with my thoughts on the happenings around the league.
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The elite players are getting paid – Pietrangelo, Krug, Markstrom, etc. But the players who aren't elite are being pushed to the bottom of the salary scale. Tons of players signing for the minimum, and we're constantly seeing remarks from those heavily involved in analyzing hockey contracts about how a latest contract comes in lower than they estimated. At this point, even for Mike Hoffman, we can take our estimates and dial it back about 20% or more. It's the nature of things this year. And the teams who didn't see this coming and overspent three weeks ago are kicking themselves, such as Montreal with Josh Anderson, Washington with Brenden Dillon and Justin Schultz. Sure, the latter two deals made sense at the time, but if they didn't pay those guys that money, how much would another team pay them? I suspect they would still be available now, or will have settled for half of what they actually signed for.
Kudos to Toronto GM Kyle Dubas for once again convincing his restricted free agents to sign for the hockey equivalent of chump change. We said this last year when he signed Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson to sweet deals, stubbornly refusing to trade William Nylander. Now this year he was forced to trade them, and again needed to convince his RFAs to sign for very low. All so he could keep William Nylander. I hope Ilya Mikheyev and Travis Dermott thank Willy for making them sign for half price. Meanwhile, Nylander could have landed the team a solid No.3 or No.4 two-way defenseman with size. I wonder who gets traded next summer just so the Leafs can still keep Willy? But I digress, Dubas did a great job getting a roster of 23 players, with eight of them making under $1M. The haves (eight players at $5M or higher) and the have-nots (14 players under $2.3M). The middle class, which I guess is Alex Kerfoot at $3M, is disappearing. Ironically, the Leafs may still trade Kerfoot, as they are still a tad over the cap.
The Leafs are now very deep, with 10 defensemen who could legit play in the NHL, 17 forwards, and now four goaltenders after Dubas signed Michael Hutchinson. I don't think they went far enough to add size and tenacity, and they lost some speed (and will lose more if Kerfoot goes). But they are covered off pretty well for injuries if timely ones strike.
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As much as you admire Vegas GM Kelly McCrimmon and former GM George McPhee for playing the system in the expansion draft, and continuing to maintain excellence, you have to wonder if the players are getting pissed off. From a pure business standpoint, if you remove a great player for a better one, then it's an upgrade. And Vegas hasn't been shy about doing that. Screw feelings. They didn't need a goalie, but goaltending was starting to get shaky so they brought in Robin Lehner. They didn't need a defenseman, but an elite one became available so – bye-bye Nate Schmidt. In fantasy hockey, that attitude is great. But in real hockey, it's not sustainable. If Vegas does that again, morale will take a hit (if it hasn't already).
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Julius Honka had been holding out for a trade and/or a one-way contract and wound up playing in Europe for his troubles. Last year in Finland he had 15 points in 46 games. His younger brother Anttoni, also a defenseman and drafted two rounds lower than Julius, had 19 points in 43 games with the same team. Honka signed for the minimum ($700k) and only gets $90k if sent to the minors. I guess the thinking is that he'll be easier for the team to trade if he were to get off to a reasonable start. Regardless, I don't have high hopes for his future as a potential fantasy asset and I have him projected for the big four points this season.
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Sami Niku of the Jets also signed for a low salary ($725k AAV), but as a one-way deal. So he gets the same amount regardless of where he plays. I don't have Niku getting into the lineup on a regular basis again this year, but he'll get in there a lot more often than he did last year. He's not very strong defensively and Coach Paul Maurice prefers giving the offensive zone starts to Neal Pionk and Josh Morrissey.
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Alex Galchenyuk shouldn't be written off. Two seasons ago he had 41 points. Three seasons ago he had 51 points. He's still just 26 years old. He is a Band-Aid Boy, but when he plays I still think there's a 60-point guy in there. Not this year with the Senators, but at least he can pull an Anthony Duclair and rebound his value back up to a better pay. If he can play 75 games, score 20 goals and get 45 points (around where I have him) then that's a great first step to redemption. The Senators may have picked themselves up a steal there, but I don't like how this signing keeps one or two of Josh Norris or Alex Formenton out of the lineup this season. I don't mind if it's Tim Stuetzle who is held back for one year, though. It will only be a partial year and I think the extra year of control would be worth more to the team than getting the kid to join the roster right away.
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I found it odd that the Hurricanes let Callum Booth walk without a qualifying offer. Not that he's a future superstar, in fact I would be surprised if he was ever an NHL regular. I thought his rookie-pro season in the ECHL and AHL was solid. His sophomore-pro season was disappointing, and then last year he was decent. But, at 23, he was let go. Playing a position that is in demand. The Hurricanes may have to keep Alex Nedeljkovic because he has to clear waivers. If they do that, then there are only two goalies in the pro system (another four in lower leagues that don't need contracts yet), neither of whom I like better than Booth. Carolina has eight contracts of their 50 left, so I'm just not sure why he wasn't worth keeping. He's a 6-4 goalie with room to improve. And now Boston gets a real good No.5 who has the potential to move up to being their No.4 goalie pretty quickly.
More minors talk, and speaking of Carolina – the Hurricanes 'did' spend one of their 50 contracts on another 23-year-old: Jeremy Bracco. I think he has potential as a scoring-line player, but attitude issues cost him his stay in Toronto's system. His production plummeted last year, making it an easier to decision not to re-sign him, but he had 1.05 points-per-game in the AHL as a 22-year-old, which is fantastic no matter who he's playing with. I'll be watching how he does on Charlotte.
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Speaking of attitude problems… Josh Ho-Sang. A very skilled player and when he played in the NHL in 2016-17 he was excellent. Excellent! And that may have been the worst thing for his ego because he felt he pretty much had a roster spot locked up for 2017-18. When he didn't – we started seeing more signs of the attitude. The Isles called Ho-Sang back up and he was excellent again. Between the two seasons he had 22 points in 43 games. Not just anyone can produce that well right off the bat! But he flapped his mouth again, and in 2018-19 he barely saw NHL action. That pushed the trade request. The team's failure to move him was no doubt a blow to Ho-Sang's ego. And now signing this two-way deal for the minimum at the NHL level is another blow. So now we'll see. He's 24 years old and he knows that if he doesn't make the team he's going to clear waivers (because he already did last year). He knows that 25-year-olds rarely get a shot, and 26-year-olds almost never do. So it's now or never. The Isles are too deep for him to make the team out of camp, so his goal should be to make a huge impression and ensure that he's the first guy called up. He's fighting for his career, does he have any fight in him? I'm a fan of the talent, so I hope he's working hard.
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Next week – Bubble Keeper Week! All of the writers will be focusing their articles on the players who are on the bubble in limited keeper leagues. Reach out to any of us on Twitter and request our thoughts on players you are agonizing over! Our Twitter list is here
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See you next Monday.