Top 10 Players for Long-Term Investment

Tom Collins

2020-11-02

In case you missed the big news from last week, Dobber's 15th annual Fantasy Hockey Guide is now officially ready for download.

Once again, it was my pleasure to write about 20 players (all non-rookies) who might not do much this year, but you should invest in for a long-term payoff. For many of these players, it's all about patience. You don't want to give up on players that struggle after two or three years in the league. Imagine the feeling of fantasy general managers who got rid of Travis Konecny and Kevin Fiala last offseason.

Whenever I write a column such as this, I usually start with 40-50 names and then whittle it down to the 20 players who appear in the guide (which you can order here in either French or English). However, that doesn't mean that the rest of the names should be overlooked.

Here are 10 more players to invest in for long-term payoff.

10. Ilya Samsonov

Samsonov had an excellent rookie season last year, with a 16-6-2 record in limited action to go along with a 2.55 GAA and .913 SV%. Samsonov will be a great goalie for Washington, but you need to wait a while for that to happen. With the Capitals signing Henrik Lundqvist in the offseason, Samsonov will be splitting starts this year and won't reach his full potential for a while yet.

9. Vince Dunn

Dunn owners went through a tough offseason. Those fantasy GMs were probably ecstatic that Alex Pietrangelo was leaving the team, as that seemed like an opportunity for Dunn to try out for the top spot on the team's top power-play unit. It probably would have led to more even-strength time as well. Then Blues signed Torey Krug and that optimism faded. Dunn was second among Blues defensemen last season in power-play points and power-play time, but now fantasy owners will need to wait a few more years before Dunn hits fantasy relevance.

8. Sam Steel

Oftentimes, an easy way to judge candidates for future breakouts is to look at players that were sexy rookie picks that didn't immediately pan out. After 11 points in 22 games in 2018-19, many had high hopes for Steel. However, Anaheim was dreadful last year (no one reached 45 points, and the Ducks were third-last in goals per game). Steel was dynamite in the WHL and AHL, but until Anaheim can get more offensive help, it's going to take a few years for Steel to break out.

7. Casey Mittelstadt

Some fantasy general managers get frustrated when the performances of their young players don't follow a linear path where the player is more productive each season. That's what is happening with Mittelstadt. Think back two seasons ago, when he posted five points in six games and many had him pegged to be a Calder trophy nominee the next season. Instead, he disappointed with 25 points, and last season spent a good chunk in the minors. Even if he can get in the lineup regularly this season, he's still at best going to be on the third line with little power-play time.

6. Conor Garland

One of the theories Dobber (along with reader “Striker”) has touted the last couple of years has to do with the 200- and 400-game breakout threshold. Part of that theory is smaller forwards (those who max out at 5'9" or 170 pounds) need about 400 NHL games to get used to the speed of the NHL and to earn the trust of the coach. Garland, at 5'10 and 165 pounds, falls into this threshold. He did put up a 47-point pace last year, and may be leaned upon this season as the Coyotes go through an upheaval. He's only played 115 games so far, so his breakout is still three or four years away.

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5. Joel Farabee

Like Garland, Farabee is on the small size (although 6 feet tall, he weighs 164 pounds). He also has a lot more players in front of him for minutes, depending on whether guys like James van Riemsdyk, Nolan Patrick or Oskar Lindblom can secure top-six roles. The 20-year-old Farabee had an okay rookie season last year and did see more of a role on the power play in the postseason.

4. Anthony Cirelli

Sometimes, one of the biggest things that can keep a player back is the amount of talent in front of him. It's going to be tough for Cirelli to lock down a top-six role for a couple of years, unless the Lightning start making crazy moves to get under the cap. Cirelli has been getting some love for the Selke (he finished fourth in voting last season), and I hope that doesn't mean he gets pigeon-holed into forgoing his offense for defense. However, when his breakout comes, expect a minimum of a 60-point pace.

3. Charlie McAvoy

McAvoy is already an excellent option for leagues that count hits and blocked shots, but when it comes to point production, more patience is needed. He was never the top option for the power play when Krug was in town. Now that Krug is gone to St. Louis, McAvoy may still not be the top choice. Matt Grzelcyk was always given that opportunity when Krug missed games, so expect Grzelcyk to get some opportunities again this year and eat into McAvoy's production.

2. Nick Suzuki

I know many are high on Suzuki for this year thanks to his playoffs, but let's not overrate a 10-game postseason performance. Sure, maybe in a perfect world, everything goes right and he breaks through with a 55-point season, but there are still plenty of factors working against him. To start, the Habs play both power-play units pretty equally, so don't expect too much of a boost from power-play production. He's also not playing with an elite player that can give him an extra addition of 10-15 points. He also hit a rookie wall last year, with one point in his last nine games, so the jury is still out on how he would do over 82 games. I'm not saying he won't be excellent, but it won't be this year.

1. Thatcher Demko

As someone that has rostered Demko in a points-only pool for a couple of years (I joined as an expansion team and was forced to do a very slow build), I was excited when it appeared Demko was going to be given the chance to be the number one guy in Vancouver. Instead, the Canucks signed Braden Holtby to a two-year deal. Now we're looking at a year where Demko will be lucky to split starts. Unless Seattle claims Holtby next offseason, you're looking at least two seasons until Demko is the de facto top guy in Vancouver.

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