Eastern Edge: Understated shot and power-play point performances

Brennan Des

2020-11-03

The 2020-21 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide is finally available for your reading pleasure! Pick up your copy today and reconnect with the sport that you've been missing for weeks. Lose yourself in player projections, sleeper picks and the best fantasy analysis since last year's fantasy guide. Not only will the guide help you prepare for your fantasy drafts, but you can consult it during the season as you evaluate trade proposals and assess options on the waiver wire. It's never too early to start planning for your 2020-2010 fantasy championship!

In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll highlight understated performances in individual fantasy hockey categories – with a focus on shots and power-play points. As always, leave a comment down below or shoot me a message on Twitter @BrennanDeSouza if there's something you want me to cover in future articles!

 

Taylor Hall

The 28-year-old winger has been a high-volume shooter throughout his career, averaging about 3.5 shots per game in recent seasons. Hall finished 12th in the league with 232 shots on target during the 2019-2020 campaign. His new teammate Jack Eichel directed 227 shots on goal, finishing 13th in the category. At first this seems like cause for concern. Two players that shot at a high volume while they were on different teams – now presumably playing on the same line in Buffalo. Will one player take over as the primary shooter while the other sees his shot totals plummet? Well, perhaps. However, it's certainly possible for them to coexist as high-volume shooters. As I look through the shot leaders from last season, I see a few examples where two high-volume shooters played on the same line, including Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat, Patrice Bergeron and David Pastrnak, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, and Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor. An even more relevant example can be found from the 2018-2019 regular season – where both Jack Eichel and Jeff Skinner averaged over three shots per game while skating on the same line. As such, while we don't know for sure the type of dynamic that will exist between Hall and Eichel, it's certainly possible that both players will continue to shoot at a high volume next season.

 

Jack Eichel

The Sabres' captain tallied 27 points on the man advantage last year – only seven players across the league recorded more power-play points. While most players with high power-play point totals benefitted from playing on successful units, Buffalo's power play sat 20th in the league – scoring on just 18.9-percent of their power-play opportunities. Buffalo should have a more dangerous power play now that Taylor Hall has joined the roster, which should help boost Eichel's point totals.

 

Jakub Vrana

The 24-year-old forward put together an understated breakout performance during the 2019-2020 campaign – his third real season in the NHL. He managed 25 goals and 27 assists through 69 games, despite skating just 15 minutes a night. Vrana's offensive output has seen linear progression throughout his career. He put up a 30-point pace in 2017-2018, took a step forward with a 47-point pace in 2018-2019 and maintained the upward trajectory with a 62-point pace last year. He also put more pucks on net last season, averaging 2.71 shots per game after averaging just under two shots per game in previous years. Vrana is an interesting player because we've seen how well he can play in a limited role, but his offensive production will always be limited without a significant opportunity on the power play.

The top power-play unit consists of Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov, T.J. Oshie and John Carlson. These five players get the lion's share of power-play time because they've been so successful with the man advantage in recent years. As a result, it doesn't make sense to break them up because they work well together – why fix something that isn't broken? With that being said, Vrana has seen a few stints on the top unit when one of the regulars has been injured. He has done fairly well when promoted and remains a top option to stand in when members of the first unit are sidelined. In addition, if the top unit begins to struggle during the season and coaches opts to shuffle players around, Vrana could see a more permanent promotion.

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While a more prominent role on the powerplay would certainly elevate Vrana's fantasy hockey value, there's still room for growth at even strength. As I mentioned earlier, he was only seeing 15 minutes of ice-time last year. Even if his power-play role doesn't increase, he can still be given more time at even strength – with 16 to 17 minutes seeming like a reasonable projection for next year. With more ice time, he should have more opportunities to boost those shot totals and point totals even further.

 

Dylan Larkin

In what was widely considered a disappointing 2019-2020 campaign, Larkin still managed a 61-point pace and over three shots per game. He is the undisputed top center on the Red Wings, granting him ample opportunity to contribute to your fantasy roster. He skated 21 minutes and 15 seconds per game last season, with only seven forwards across the league seeing more ice time. In addition, he saw 62-percent of the team's total power-play time – which translates to over three minutes with the man advantage each game. I strongly believe that Detroit's top line of Anthony Mantha, Tyler Bertuzzi and Dylan Larkin remains one of the most underrated units in the league. I think the trio would have received more recognition last year had Mantha not suffered a couple of significant injuries. Speaking of Mantha, he recently signed a four-year deal with the team with an average annual value of $5.7-million. Larkin's on contract for the next three years and I expect the two will continue developing the chemistry they've displayed in recent seasons. There seems to be a stigma against the Red Wings in fantasy leagues, but just because the team has been bad, doesn't mean that all of its players are bad. Even if your league counts plus/minus as a category, I think that Mantha, Bertuzzi and Larkin can bring great value to your fantasy roster through their contributions to other categories.

 

Travis Konecny

Konecny saw a greater role with the man advantage in 2019-2020 than he had in years past. During his first three years in the NHL, he was seeing about 30-percent of the team's power-play time, which translated to roughly a minute and a half per game. Last season – his fourth in the NHL – Konecny saw 52-percent of the team's time with the man advantage, which translated to nearly three minutes on the power play each game. The increased role contributed to his breakout performance, as 23 of his 61 points last year (66 games) came on the power play. In his first three seasons, Konecny had just 15 power-play points over 233 games.

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