Ramblings: Bubble Week Continues – Graves, Bean, Gurianov & Hintz (Nov. 11)

Cam Robinson

2020-11-10

Welcome back to the much anticipated Bubble Week here at DobberHockey. The McDavids, Makars, and MacKinnons of the world see enough inked spilled in their names to impressive an octopus. This week is all about isolating players who are on the cusp of your keeper list. They're the old dogs looking for one more productive go-around. The young pups waiting for that uptick in deployment. Or the mid-range cats who find themselves in improved positions and are salivating at the prospect of seeing ice with the studs.

And so we begin with 2019-20 plus/minus leader, Ryan Graves.

The 25-year-old was basically a rookie last season – having just broken the threshold by suiting up in 26 games in 2018-19. Yet, he played a considerable role on a very strong team. He started out seeing just 15 minutes through the first 20 contests. That number moved to 19:30 through the next 40 tilts.

By the final stretch, he was seeing 22:37. The level of deployment stayed pretty well through the playoffs as well. In the end, he played at a 31-point pace – the vast majority of that coming at even-strength as his PPTOI is nil.

Now, here's where I think things can get a bit juicier. No, I do not expect to see him earn any additional time on the man-advantage. On the contrary, with the addition of Devon Toews to the lineup, he slides back even further on the PP pecking order. But, I do expect him to maintain his position on the top pair next to Cale Makar.

There will be all sorts of opportunities to chisel points at even-strength with Makar as his mate and most frequent forwards being the MacKinnon, Rantanen and Landeskog. Chip in 125-150 hits and 150-plus blocks and you've got yourself the makings of a very valuable depth asset in multicategory leagues. 

 

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What heck are the Canes going to do with Jake Bean? Because he's ready for a spot.

Bean, who turned 22 last summer, is coming off of the 18th most productive AHL campaign for a U22 defender. His 48 points in 59 contests equate to 0.81 points-per-game. That mark is fifth-best in the last 30 years for the same criteria. 

There are a few decent players on that list. 

Slide down the board further and you'll see names like Torey Krug, Dustin Byfuglien, and Tyson Barrie.

The issue though, is that Carolina has five left-shot defenders on the NHL payroll for next season. Obviously, Jaccob Slavin isn't going anywhere. Brady Skjei and Jake Gardiner have multiple years left on their contracts at a heavy freight. And then Joakim Ryan offers safety in the press box. There is simply no room.

Two things coming down the pike may expedite the need to resolve this issue 

  1. Dougie Hamilton is an upcoming UFA
  2. The Seattle Expansion Draft

 

Hamilton will be first, second, and third on the list of things to take care of in Carolina. He's their top offensive weapon on the blueline and has developed into a marquee stopper as well. He's a legitimate Norris threat in the immediate future. 

How the team allocates cash to keep him will likely shift their structure beneath. That, to me, means one of Skjei or Gardiner (or both) needs to hit the bricks.

Secondly, the Expansion draft looms large. The process will be the same as it was with Vegas – meaning clubs can protect seven forwards and three defensemen for a total of 10 skaters. Or they can protect any combination of eight skaters. We can assume that Hamilton, Slavin, and Brett Pesce are locked to be protected. In which case, do you risk the Kraken landing Bean as he ripe to step in and step up? Do you protect four defenders and leave two extra bodies available? 

Most likely, I'd expect Bean to be dangled to the masses in short order. He's unlikely to earn a spot and earn the value to use a protection spot on. The team surely wants to extract some value from him if they can't keep him.

And so we wait. Because I have a feeling he's going to be a strong fantasy producer when he lands in a good spot. 

 

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The NBA announced they will fire up their 2020-21 campaign on December 22nd for a compacted, 72-game schedule. Do you know that that means? The NHL is going to have extra motivation to push closer to the January 1st start date than the February 1st target.

Do you know what else it means? You all need to start cramming for your drafts! 

Have you copped yourself a copy of the 15th Annual Dobber's Fantasy Hockey Guide yet? There is no better resource for the fantasy player. We're talking about sleepers, breakouts, 31 team breakdowns with upsides, 3YP, and all the projections you can handle. 

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An even better option is to ban the Keeper League Pack and read up on the youngsters on the way up with a copy of the Fantasy Prospect Report. Together, those two bibles will help you put your friends in your rearview mirror down the standings page. 

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What's up with Roope Hintz next season and beyond? Well, my guess is that he has an instant opportunity to become the Stars' top line pivot for the majority of 2020-21 as Tyler Seguin recoups from hip surgery.

I mentioned last week in the Ramblings that the torn labrum injury and subsequent surgery that Seguin is facing is a long and arduous one. It's an injury that sucked the juice right out of Ryan Kesler's Selke-level play. It ended Jarkko Ruutu's career. 

It's not to be underplayed.

But, while the Stars' star center is on the shelf, that glaring hole at the top of the lineup needs filling. We may see Dallas load up a geriatric first unit with Joe Pavelski in the middle of Jamie Benn and Alex Radulov. That would leave the second line to be a kid unit. Hintz would be working with his most common linemate from 2019-20, Denis Gurianov and perhaps Jason Robertson

There's a lot to like about either combo.

The other option is to swap Pavelski and Hintz and add some layers to both top-six lines. But either way, a spot on the team's top power-play unit is definitely at hand. Hintz was a high-end power-play producer last season. His 7.1 power-play points per 60 minutes led all regular skaters in Dallas. Hell, that mark sat amongst T-10th in the entire league for those who saw a regular PP shift.

That effort led to him playing at a 26-goal, 45-point sophomore pace. Nothing to sneeze at.

This information could sway you to find a 'K' to slide next to the soon-to-be 24-year-old. Or maybe you take that knowledge and make sure to snipe him a round early in drafts. Either way, his role is set to elevate at both even-strength and on the man-advantage.

Key ingredients to a burst in production. 

 

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@Hockey_Robinson

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