Eastern Edge: Kasperi Kapanen, Jake Guentzel, and Pittsburgh’s top line

Brennan Des

2020-11-17

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In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll take a closer look at Pittsburgh's top-six, which now features Kasperi Kapanen. With recent confirmation that Kapanen should start beside Crosby and Guentzel next year, we'll analyze the resulting fantasy hockey repercussions.

 

Guentzel, the Captain and Kapanen

Penguins coach Mike Sullivan plans to play the newly acquired Kasperi Kapanen alongside Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel to start the upcoming season. Such a favourable situation puts Kapanen in prime position to break out this season, which could mean a big boost for his fantasy value.

Kapanen shared the ice with some talented players in Toronto, skating alongside John Tavares and Mitchell Marner for some stretches last season, as well as Auston Matthews and William Nylander at other points. However, Kapanen's role in the top-six was far from secure as he often dropped into a depth role beside guys like Pierre Engvall, Alexander Kerfoot and Jason Spezza. In Pittsburgh, Kapanen will have a legitimate opportunity to prove himself beside Crosby and Guentzel. If he makes the most of that opportunity early on, he should continue to skate with those two throughout the season.

Now I don't know about you, but my earliest memory of Kapanen in the NHL was his overtime goal in Game Two of the 2016-2017 playoffs against the Washington Capitals. That seems like such a long time ago, which is why I mistakenly believed that Kapanen already had a large number of NHL games under his belt. While Kapanen did make his NHL debut back in the 2015-2016 campaign, he only featured in nine games that season and went on to play just eight games the year after that. So, although Kapanen's young NHL career spans over five seasons so far, he's only played 202 games – which translates to just two and a half full seasons. All this is to say that we shouldn't be too worried about his development – the fact that he hasn't broken out yet isn't overly concerning. He scored at a 45-point pace over the last two years while playing all over Toronto's lineup. I expect he'll be able to improve on that if he can find some stability on Pittsburgh's top line.

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Speaking of Pittsburgh's top line, it took on many forms last season as the Penguins battled through a number of significant injuries and lengthy absences. So, in order to gain a better appreciation for how well Crosby and Guentzel play together, we'll have to widen our view and look beyond just last year. Since Guentzel entered the league in 2016, he's played roughly 70-percent of his even-strength minutes beside Crosby during the regular season (via NaturalStatTrick). Together, Crosby and Guentzel have controlled 55-percent of both the shot- and goal-share – holding onto a similar majority of scoring chances. Over the years, we've seen a number of different wingers play alongside Guentzel and Crosby. During the 2016-2017 campaign, that role primarily belonged to Conor Sheary. He put up 53 points in 61 games – a 71-point pace – which remains his greatest offensive output over five years in the NHL. Bryan Rust was a prominent feature alongside Crosby and Guentzel during both the 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 campaign. However, Rust didn't manage the same level of offensive success, pacing for 40 and 45 points during those seasons. It's tempting to disregard those results and justify that Rust didn't have the talent to keep up with Crosby and Guentzel. However, Rust managed 56 points in 55 games last season, when he was trusted with more minutes due to Pittsburgh's long list of injuries. Rust was centered by Evgeni Malkin for most of those games, with Guentzel, Dominik Kahun and Patric Hornqvist all rounding out the line at different points of the year.

So, while we saw Sheary reach new offensive heights beside Crosby and Guentzel, Rust didn't experience the same boost in production. Essentially, there's a good chance that Kapanen sees success beside Crosby and Guentzel, but it isn't quite a guarantee. I personally believe that Kapanen's speed will help him find more open ice and Crosby's playmaking abilities will ensure that Kapanen gets a few good looks on net. However, it's all just speculation until we actually see the trio in action. I will say that Kapanen's fantasy value may be limited without a prominent power-play role. I expect Pittsburgh's top unit will consist of Malkin, Crosby, Guentzel, Kris Letang and one of Rust or Jason Zucker – leaving Kapanen on the second unit.

With Kapanen, Crosby and Guentzel slotting in on the top line, we should see Rust, Malkin and Zucker on the second line. You may remember that Zucker managed an impressive 12 points in 15 games after joining the Penguins, primarily skating alongside Crosby. It'll be interesting to see if Zucker can manage that level of offensive production beside Malkin and Rust– who showed quite a bit of chemistry last season. The duo skated together for almost 700 minutes, controlling nearly 53-percent of the shot-share, 58-percent of the goal-share and 55-percent of all scoring chances generated while they were on the ice (via NaturalStatTrick). We've already mentioned Rust's breakout performance last year, but I feel like Malkin hasn't been appropriately recognized for his excellent play. He tallied 74 points through 55 games during the 2019-2020 campaign – which translates to 110 points over 82 games. His 1.35 points per game ranked sixth in the league! A lot of fantasy hockey value can be found within Pittsburgh's top two lines. Let's hope everyone can stay healthy this season!

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