Ramblings: The OHL Season, Kapanen’s New Role, ’21s, & Krug (Nov. 18)

Cam Robinson

2020-11-17

The Panthers made history on Tuesday when they announced the hiring of Brett Peterson as the club’s Assistant GM. Peterson becomes the first black AGM in NHL history.

Normally, Florida is low-hanging fruit for ridicule, but between this and Kim Ng being named the Marlins GM recently, it’s nothing but good vibes from me.

 

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I don't normally talk about my leagues in detail as I find it's tantamount to telling someone about your dream last night. After about the 15-second mark, you've lost your audience. But I will take a moment to share a couple of interesting results from a draft I had last Saturday night.

For clarity, this is a 12-person league with 15 keepers apiece. Goaltenders are historically hard to come by, but defenders were kept at a very high rate this year.

Alexander Holtz went fourth overall ahead of Marco Rossi, Lucas Raymond and Yaroslav Askarov. 

This went against the consensus of the polling twitter mob but does make a lot of sense. Holtz is equally dynamic as Raymond or Rossi and he has the added luxury of landing in Newark with the prospect of receiving passes from Jack Hughes for the next decade. I honestly could not have picked a better situation for Holtz to step into. One of the most devastating young finishers partnering up with one of the best pure passing youngsters.

It should be juicy.



The Kasperi Kapanen hype didn't land

Recently, Jim Rutherford came out and stated that the newest Penguin would skate alongside Sidney Crosby in 2020-21. It's an unsurprising claim since Pittsburgh spent an arm and a leg to acquire the 24-year-old winger. They're going to put him into spots to succeed. 

The former Leaf fell to the very last pick of the third round in this draft – 216th overall. For comparison, Kapanen sits 121st on Dobber’s Top 300 Skater List. 

Seeing time alongside Crosby and Jake Guentzel is going to result in a bevy of even-strength points. If that line fits and sticks, we can absolutely pencil Kapanen in for more than his previous career-high of 39 EVPs. What we can't do is lock him down for much more power-play time.

Kapanen witnessed his PPTOI jump from 48 seconds to 1:15 last season. The result was the same: Three points, albeit in fewer games. The Finnish winger won't be starting on the first unit – a unit that consistently eats up the lion's share of the two-minute opportunities.

I think there's an opportunity for a 50-point pace here. Perhaps even 55, but it will have to come at evens. The only shot to hit big numbers is to bump Bryan Rust which is plausible, but after the success Rust had up there last season, it seems like a long shot unless there are clear difficulties. 

 

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Word is top OHL prospect for the '21 draft, Brandt Clarke is off to the Swedish Allsvenskan and that it's not a loan. It's a full-season agreement. The Swedish second-tier runs until late-March before playoffs kick in.

This a scenario that would see Clarke spend virtually the entirety of his draft-eligible season outside of the OHL. A bad sign for the league's return to play – a mandate that's already faced challenges with the public health officer stating there would be no bodychecking in the league if/when it returns.

Quickly, that’s a ridiculous assertation. As if players only get close to one another during big contact. Board work, faceoffs, chatting on the bench, battling in the netfront… all put players as close or closer than checking.

As it stands, the OHL season is scheduled to begin on February 4, 2021. Teams have been told to have players and staff ready for training camp in January. Let’s hope that is the case, as an entire lost season would be extremely detrimental to the league. The impact would last for years.

 

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Quickly, just in case you weren’t thinking along the same lines, I fully expect Torey Krug‘s numbers to slide. He’s averaged between 64 and 68 point paces in each of the last three seasons. Next year? I’m expecting more of a 50-55 type of deal.

 

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I had a question posed to me on Twitter the other day. It was a tough one so I figured I'd spill a little ink on it here. 

These types of deals always give me pause. On one hand, if you're a team in a rebuild or are trying to fill out a deep roster, nabbing two extremely exciting young players is awfully tempting. You fill a centre and wing spot with future high-impact talent. That said, Elias Pettersson is the best player in the group. 

I think realistic point upsides for the three are as follows: 

My gut says to hold onto Pettersson. However, if you believe Lafreniere can be a triple-digit guy (which isn't out of the question) then you make the swap. But if we're thinking that's the case, I'd make the argument that EP is more of a 110-point upside character.

Sorry, tdubbs, I don't have a perfect answer for you this time around. 

 

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Have you purchased your guides yet? Well, what are you waiting for?! They’re quite literally the best!

 

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As is my nature, I want to spend some more time talking about a young player. This time it’s 2021 draft-eligible forward, William Eklund. The Swedish forward has spent time down the middle but has found a hot home in DjurgÃ¥rdens of the SHL playing on the wing. His opposite wingmate is New Jersey Devils' top prospect, Alexander Holtz.

The two of them have been having some fun early on this season.

Eklund, who was about five weeks too young to be apart of the 2020 class currently leads all draft-eligible skaters in the SHL. His eight points in 12 games are third-most amongst U20s. He trails only Holtz and Lucas Raymond – who has 10 in 17. 

Eklund is a supremely intelligent offensive player. He anticipates well and meshes seamlessly alongside shooters or pass-first types. Watch this play below where he shakes pressure, makes a pass, bounces off of the check and times his approach to the net perfectly. It's a big-league play. 

 

 

DobberProspects Scouting branch ranked the 18-year-old 14th overall when they released their board earlier this month. European scout, Alexa Potack had this to say: 

"Eklund's advanced awareness of the game is something that sets him apart from many of his fellow 2021 Draft class members."

While he may not have blazing speed or a rocket of a shot, it's the sum of his parts to go along with the elite brain that makes him such an intriguing prospect. If he can maintain anywhere near this pace, there will be no keeping him outside of the top 10 on draft day. Only two other draft-eligible players have ever produced 0.67 or more points per game in the SHL.

Those two were Daniel and Henrik Sedin.

 

 

The 2021 class is being heralded early on for his impressive array of defenders. And for good reason, there are some absolute beauties coming from this crop. However, the lack of a truly elite forward makes it all the more intriguing for fantasy players. You'll need to mine a little harder than normal to get the top talent.

Eklund is a prime candidate. One who doesn't appear to have a long wait time and could slip down the list a bit meaning he'll step onto a team with the more ready-made talent to work with. 

 

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@Hockey_Robinson

 

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