I'm definitely not saying I want this to happen or even think this will happen. But between the deferred salary/escrow issue between the NHL and the NHLPA and the rising COVID situation in many provinces and states, I think there's at least a slight chance that the 2020-21 season doesn't even get off the ground.

On one hand, the owners are taking something that was promised to the players off the table. On the other hand, owners are no doubt losing a ton of money by running a season with no fans or fewer fans, which could even put a few teams' futures in serious jeopardy. It would be a shame if the NHL went down the same path as MLB, where a season almost didn't happen and eventually resulted in the bare minimum. Judging by today's news, both sides will need to make compromises that will have implications for years to come in order to have a 2020-21 season.

Ultimately, I think it gets done, but we still have to prepare for the possibility that it won't happen. Obviously time is of the essence if the season is to start on January 1, and time should not be taken for granted for the season to start at all.

If you're been awaiting a schedule to determine potential matchups, this is at least a start. Assuming this happens, this could be a lot of fun.

From today's column on ESPN+, this is what I'm hearing for potential divisions for the NHL 2020-21 season: https://t.co/RCLTYW6NZ2 pic.twitter.com/9dEuj1TUCx

— Greg Wyshynski (@wyshynski) November 19, 2020

I've discussed new potential Canadian team rivalries, but what about from the other three proposed divisions? The Pacific Division as currently constructed isn’t exactly a group of death, but Colorado and Dallas joining up with Vegas could be interesting. Then you have the Central, which pits St. Louis, Pittsburgh, and Tampa Bay all in one division – not something we'd normally see. The East has Boston joining up with most of the Metropolitan (Patrick?) Division for what could be the most powerful division of this format.

*

Given the notices from local governments that we need to keep our bubbles smaller, maybe this is the right time to discuss bubble keepers when your bubble of keepers happens to be smaller.

I noticed that some of the questions that came in to Bubble Keeper Week were from fantasy owners with five or fewer keepers. I believe that there are different factors that go into making keeper decisions with fewer keepers, not the least of which is a more short-term focus on staying competitive from season to season as opposed to taking a season or two to (re)build toward a potential championship. Drafting well is also critical with limited keepers, as there can be a better talent pool with potential elite players available. 

So as an extension of bubble keeper week, I'm going to address the decision making of a fantasy team of mine that allows for only four keepers, including only one goalie. I plan to keep a goalie, which will leave me with three skaters to choose from.

I realize that other owners in this league may be reading this, but there's still considerable time before I make my decisions (which means lots of time for me to change my mind). Other owners might look at my roster and be able to correctly guess at least some of the players I will keep, just as an expansion team's GM will look at other teams' rosters and already know which players won't be available and which players might be available.

For the sake of brevity, most of the players listed below are in the Top 100 Roto Rankings. You can check these rankings out for your own benefit if you have keeper decisions and/or a draft to prepare for. If something looks off in the rankings, by all means let me know and I'll examine further.

Decision 1: Keep one goalie – Tuukka Rask, Elvis Merzlikins, or John Gibson

Here's a comparison of these goalies from the 2019-20 season, using the Roto Rankings categories for goalies (which are the same as this league).

Name	Age	GP	W	GAA	SV%	Tier
TUUKKA RASK	33	41	26	2.12	0.929	1
ELVIS MERZLIKINS	26	33	13	2.35	0.923	2
JOHN GIBSON	27	51	20	3.00	0.904	3

This is probably a fairly simple decision if all you do is use Dobber's goaltending tiers. Yet I'll try to explain why Rask should be the goalie, even if the rumors that he may retire after the season have any substance.

If you're a rebuilding team with a higher number of keepers and a true minor league system, I can understand the decision to go with the younger Merzlikins, or even hope that Gibson rebounds along with the rebuilding Ducks. However, I'm interested in trying to win this league this season, and I know that Rask will be picked in the first draft round (after the keepers are selected). Rask should be a top-5 goalie again on draft day because of his strong ratios and his win percentage. Only Andrei Vasilevskiy (67.3%) had a higher win percentage than Rask (63.4%) among goalies that played at least 15 games last season, which matters if you're worried that Jaroslav Halak will cut into Rask's workload too much.

Should Rask retire, I will have probably drafted another goalie in the early draft rounds, like I did with Gibson in the 2019-20 draft. If not, I may get lucky and add a prospect goalie like I did with Elvis when Joonas Korpisalo went down to injury. I ended the season with five goalies on my roster, so I'm confident that I'll have something to choose from. If not, then I also have the option of keeping four skaters instead, which might not be the worst thing to happen if you consider the volatile nature of goalies.

Decision 2: Keep three skaters – John Carlson, Brad Marchand, Dougie Hamilton, Gabriel Landeskog, Dylan Larkin, Rasmus Dahlin, Drew Doughty, Jack Hughes

As you might be able to tell, I like targeting defensemen because of scarcity in production. Four of the eight players that I've listed here are blueliners, which mirrors my draft strategy in previous seasons. One particular stat category that I've missed out on is goals (I finished last in that category last season), so if I keep one or more defensemen, I will need to make a point of taking forwards with high goal totals. The downside of drafting defensemen early is that your point totals may be assist-heavy, which isn't a bad thing for the assists category. Just something to keep an eye on.

The decision to keep Carlson from this group is fairly simple. He was the leading scorer among defensemen last season, a good 10 points clear of second-place (and Norris Trophy winner) Roman Josi. Carlson also finished second in power-play points among defensemen (26 PPP). He should be a no-brainer first defenseman off draft boards this coming season. On a keep-4 roster, you want to keep the best player at any position. Even in a rebuilding state, that asset should fetch blue-chip prospects you can then build around.

I've mentioned here that I'd like to keep players that will help me win now. That's why it might not be wise on my part to keep a 32-year-old player who may miss the start of the season due to offseason surgery (expected recovery by mid-January; season could start in early January). Yet we know how valuable a scorer Marchand is (sixth in league scoring with 87 points) and how consistent he has been (80+ points over each of the past four seasons). I'll have to consider the most recent update about his status before making this decision, as I may need to look in another direction if he experiences a serious setback.

That leaves one more player to choose. In a keep four league, you don't get a massive prospect base to work with. If you finish in the basement one season and don't have many stud players, that can be fixed with one superb draft. So as someone like Hughes might be among the league scoring leaders in a few seasons, he's going to need some transition time between now and those lofty heights. Since he might still be another year or two away, he could prevent me from employing an elite player this season.

I think I'm going to narrow this down to two players: Hamilton and Landeskog. I have both ranked within the top 50 of the Roto Rankings, and both missed time due to injuries. Deciding whether to keep a forward or a defenseman is a bit of an apples-and-oranges comparison. Hamilton actually outscored Landeskog on a points-per-game basis last season (0.85 PTS/GP to 0.81 PTS/GP); otherwise, Landeskog has been the better scorer career-wise. Here's a comparison of roto categories over the last three years.

Name	GP	G	A	PTS	PTS/G	PPP	SOG	+/-	Hits
DOUGIE HAMILTON	211	49	74	123	0.58	31	699	31	295
GABRIEL LANDESKOG	205	80	101	181	0.88	58	571	31	355

This appears to lean heavily in Landeskog's favor, but there are two things to keep in mind: 1) Hamilton is a defenseman, and he plays at a position where scoring is lower, and 2) Hamilton's 63.9 PP% was much higher than it was in his previous two seasons (one of which was in Carolina), so his 2019-20 totals should carry the most weight overall.

You know what? I'm not going to make a decision on my last pick today. And if your keeper deadline isn't for a while, you don't need to either. There's no rush.

*

For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding