Every Sunday, we’ll share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Cam Robinson, and Dobber

1. I wanted to discuss whether Leon Draisaitl should be the top pick in a pure scoring league (or a multicategory league, for that matter). I didn’t know where to start the discussion, so I decided to reach the masses with a good ol’ Twitter poll:

Pure scoring non-keeper fantasy hockey league, you have the first overall pick. Who are you taking? Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Nikita Kucherov?

I thought McDavid would win, mainly because I would also pick him myself in that spot. However, I was surprised at how he easily ran away with this poll. Even though Draisaitl was the Art Ross Trophy and Hart Trophy winner in 2019-20, there’s still the feeling that McDavid is still the guy on the Oilers. Even though Draisaitl was 13 points clear of McDavid in scoring, their points-per-game averages were much closer than that (1.55 to 1.52 for Draisaitl). So, there’s no argument from me that McDavid should be the first overall pick in pure scoring leagues. (nov28)

2. Yet, is there a case that Draisaitl is underappreciated? In terms of goals, he has outscored McDavid over the past two seasons (93 goals to 75 goals). If goals carry more weight in your fantasy league than assists, you may want to give this one some more thought. Grab a Fantasy Guide (if you haven’t already), download the spreadsheet, then create a formula based on your scoring system (eg. G = 3 pts, A = 2 pts) and Dobber’s projections. Then you’ll have a better idea.

Draisaitl has been shooting at an unworldly 20 percent over those past two seasons, which far surpasses the 13-17% that he shot over his previous three seasons. Regression could have a major impact on his goal totals, but it also appears that he has developed better spots to shoot as he has become a more seasoned NHLer. Or, with Draisaitl and McDavid more often than not on different lines (at least later in the season), Draisaitl doesn’t always have to face the tougher matchups.

Oh, I almost forgot! Draisaitl was your leader in Draisaitl Hat Tricks in the 2019-20 regular season. In case you're not in the know, a player needs at least one goal, one assist, and a minus-1 for a DHT. (nov28)

3. Mike Clifford's November 19 Ramblings discussed the probability of Flames' Rasmus Andersson gaining first-unit power-play minutes. Mark Giordano‘s first-unit power-play minutes had declined as the 2019-20 season went on, although the steepest decline coincided with the addition of rental Erik Gustafsson (since signed with Philly).

As valued a contributor as Giordano has been for the past decade, he is now 37 years old. If you own him on your keeper league, you shouldn’t be making plans to retain him long-term. It’s also worth having discussion about a succession plan for the Calgary power play. Mike mentioned Andersson or Noah Hanifin as possibilities in the near term, while top defensive prospect Juuso Valimaki could eventually make his way there. (nov28)

4. Something that’s not up for debate is a top-4 role for Andersson. Although he averaged just under 20 minutes in 2019-20, his second-half ice time and postseason ice time were over 20 minutes. Although the Flames grabbed attention by bringing in numerous pieces from Vancouver’s roster like Chris Tanev, there was a net loss in experience on defense with TJ Brodie signing with Toronto and Travis Hamonic not returning. One preview that I read from a Flames beat writer even has Andersson projected for the top pair at even strength with Giordano.

With ice time will come opportunities to collect stats, and not just of the scoring variety. Andersson finished second on the Flames with 57 penalty minutes, so there’s some value in bangers leagues. His hits and blocked shots totals haven’t been especially high, but those should stand to increase with more ice time. (nov28)

5. Looking to get your podcast fix? Look no further than Dobber Hockey! You can check out our new podcast page, which now includes not one, not two, not three, but four podcasts:

– Dobber Prospects Radio
– Dobber’s DraftCast
– Keeping Karlsson
– Steve Laidlaw Podcast

Those of you who were big fans of Steve’s will be happy to know he is back on the Dobber site in a new capacity. So far, only one episode is on the Dobber site, but you can check out his other episodes on his podcast’s Apple Podcasts page. I’ve been invited onto several of his previous episodes, either to discuss the Vancouver Canucks or previous entry drafts (I don’t like to listen to myself talk, but you certainly can). Other Dobber personalities have also appeared on the podcast, so find a topic you’re interested in and give it a listen.

You’ll also find widgets for recent episodes of all the podcasts along the side of many different pages on the site. As well, all of these podcasts are also over at DobberProspects. (nov28)

6. I had written a little bit about the Bolts' cap situation but Mikhail Sergachev threw a wrench in that and signed for three years with an AAV of $4.8M. This means each of Ryan McDonagh, Victor Hedman, and Sergachev will be around for at least three years, barring a trade. If they can get Erik Cernak under contract, that's a very good top-4 for the near future.

But that's the crux here. The Lightning are now $3M over the cap with both Anthony Cirelli and Cernak left to sign. If they want to sign them both, they have to trade two of Alex Killorn, Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat, or Yanni Gourde, and each has some form of trade protection. With a flat cap, trading one will be hard enough. Trading two just adds more problems.

I think we see something like a Johnson+Cernak or Gourde+Cernak package going somewhere like New Jersey or Detroit, which kind of gets two birds stoned at once: they free up enough space to sign Cirelli to a bridge (or get close enough to it that they can trade someone cheap and without trade protection like Blake Coleman or Cedric Paquette) while not need to deal with Cernak's contract. Whatever ends up happening, there are still a few significant moves coming from Tampa before the season begins. (nov26)

7. Who the heck is going to start for the Blackhawks this season?

I think we all know Chicago is going to be bad, but just how bad will depend on the crease. I think we can reasonably expect the forwards to produce a decent amount of goals. Patrick Kane is remarkably consistent in his greatness. Alex DeBrincat should bounceback. Kirby Dach is likely to be leaps and bounds better which is a scary proposition. Additionally, we're likely to see some open-offense strategy as the team will need to outscore their deficiencies. The forwards should still hold value.

Those deficiencies are a soft backend and woefully inexperienced goaltending. Tough combo.

Personally, I wouldn't want to draft Malcolm Subban or Collin Delia onto my fantasy team. However, either could be strategic waiver stream options. Catch a little heater and you could have something there for a week or two. When the schedule comes out, finding stretches with a bit of rest will be key. If one guy gets hot, it won't matter with all the back-to-backs that will surely be prominent this season. That will be an important aspect in all of the likely timeshare gigs. (nov25)

8. Minnesota is in an interesting position. They're an older team (albeit a bit younger for this coming season). But they're undoubtedly going to be attempting a playoff run. At the same time, they do not have a top-line center. They have, what appears to be, four bottom-6 center options in Joel Eriksson-Ek, Marcus Johansson, Nick Bonino, and Victor Rask. That's no bueno.

What they do have is a rockstar of a prospect who fell into their laps at ninth overall this past draft.

I'm of the mind that the Wild should absolutely hand the keys to the kingdom to the 19-year-old Marco Rossi. Pair Rossi up with fellow rookie, Kirill Kaprizov and Kevin Fiala and see what's up. Those three will be an incredible fast, offensive and creative line. Will they take it on the chin some nights, especially on the road? Yup, they will. Is that okay? Yes, it is.

Minny will have three other lines that could be deemed 'shutdown' types. They don't have the horses to spread it out and hope to score by committee. They need their talent to shine. If it's me running things, I put them all together.

Hot Take: If this does come to fruition – which I think there is a very real chance of happening, then I'm ready to say that Rossi and Kaprizov will outscore every other rookie in the league. Yes, that includes Alexis Lafreniere. (nov25)

9. You don’t necessarily think defensive stalwart when you think Dougie Hamilton, but that’s exactly what he is. Toss in a 70-point pace in 2019-20 while racking up a very sustainable shooting percentage, secondary assist rate, and Individual Point Percentage and it’s really nothing but roses.

If you’re selecting a defender in a one-year league, I’d be hard-pressed to recommend too many above Hamilton for 2020-21. The Hurricanes are a team that has built their wow pressure to a boiling point. That team is ready to burst. Hamilton has just one season left on his deal before a monstrous UFA contract will surely kick in. The ingredients for a massive season are all ready and waiting.

Hot take: Hamilton is your 2020-21 Norris Trophy winner after sniffing a point-per-game season. (nov25)

10. To find some even more positivity about Cole Caufield's hot start in the NCAA: this is a player who has been pegged as a pure goal scorer. If he's not finishing off plays, he's not doing much at all. Well, early on in 2020-21, the 19-year-old has been very strong on both sides of the puck. He's been a terror on the backcheck and consistently in the right position.

These are excellent signs for his long term viability as a fantasy asset. If he can find a way to be a competent two-way player at his size in the NHL, he'll be afforded a great deal more opportunities. The type of opportunities that goal scorers need when the stick gets icy cold – as it absolutely will.

I remain extremely high on Caufield. I expect he'll play out this season with the Badgers and give the Hobey Baker a run. Then, he'll turn pro and slide right into the Habs lineup down the stretch. His upside remains as a kid with 40 tuck upside. There aren't many of those out there. (nov25)

11. The NHL Network released a list of their top-10 goalies:

1. Andrei Vasilevskiy, Lightning
2. Tuukka Rask, Bruins
3. Connor Hellebuyck, Jets
4. Ben Bishop, Stars
5. Jordan Binnington, Blues
6. Carey Price, Canadiens
7. Darcy Kuemper, Coyotes
8. Robin Lehner, Golden Knights
9. Jacob Markstrom, Flames
10. Anton Khudobin, Stars

These are fun for creating debate and not much else. The wording of “right now” would exclude someone like John Gibson, who had a .904 save percentage in 2019-20, which was his worst season in the NHL. Never mind that over the previous five seasons, he was first in the NHL in WAR/60 among all regular goalies, and over the previous three seasons, was fifth in high-danger save percentage. He is still one of the best goalies in the league, if not the best, but he had a bad year, so he’s not a top-10 goalie.

Anyway, I quibble with the order but not most of the goalies on the list. Mine would start with Gibson, Connor Hellebuyck, Corey Crawford, and the Arizona guys in some order. (nov24)

12. An interesting read from Helene St. James about the 2017 Red Wings draft. She brings up that they made 11 selections in that draft and there’s a chance no one becomes a regular for the team. (The closest is probably Michael Rasmussen and he’s no sure thing.) It is just a reminder that a lot of kicks at the can aren’t a guarantee (granted, many of their extra picks were third rounders and not first rounders). Teams still need to develop their players or else all that draft capital is a waste. (nov24)

13. Last year, the Ducks were bad, but Adam Henrique had a good year. His 82-game paces were 30 goals, 50 points, 195 shots, 591 face-off wins, and 87 hits. Those aren’t eye-popping, but for depth in deeper leagues, that is pretty good for a player on a real bad team.

The Ducks have some prospects but I don’t think there is a center ready for 17 minutes a night. The closest is Sam Steel but I think he still has a lot of offensive growth necessary before getting throw out against the likes of William Karlsson, Nazem Kadri, or Tomas Hertl every night. At the least, I think Henrique has one more year of being a top-6 center in Anaheim, and he’s averaged 24 goals/82 games for five years, missing just three games in that span. Put a star beside his name for a depth center option in your multi-cat leagues. (nov24)

14. Jake DeBrusk signed with the Bruins for two years with an AAV a little under $3.7M per season. His fantasy value in the upcoming season will depend on when the season actually begins. With both Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak out of the lineup on a January 1st start, DeBrusk could see a lot of top minutes. Even a later start could see him keep a lock on the top PP role with Pastrnak out until February. Any later than that, though, and his value just keeps going down. (nov24)

15. With the release of my Top 50 Fantasy Prospect Goaltenders last week, I’ve seen (and debated) some interesting commentary. Naturally it all depends on league and roster size but generally speaking, it is very important to consider the wait time.

Do you want that guy who looks like he’ll be a star in the NHL if you have to wait seven years? Six? Five? Where’s the line? He was drafted in the second round two years ago…does that make him better than a guy drafted in the first round this year (i.e. Yaroslav Askarov)? What if a goalie was drafted in the third round three years ago, is looking pretty good, but a goalie this year was drafted in the second round – is the newer guy the better own? How do you balance this? (nov23)

16. Well, you know the way your particular league works best. But generally speaking, I say that I don’t want to wait more than three years on a prospect goalie. And by “wait” I don’t mean 10 games in the NHL. I mean a strong chance at being a starter who gives me a 45-game season (at least!) in that time-frame. How do I do that? Well, I draft a guy I think could get a shot in the coming year, or two years at most. Because no matter how ‘close’ I think he is, I’m always off. I always overrate how quickly he arrives. And, frankly, I’m probably better at it than most people.

Everyone dives at the top goalies, taking them over lesser goalies who are ready now, thinking he’s just a couple of years away. But even Ilya Samsonov was drafted five years ago. This will be his first season in which he helps a team. So, his fantasy owner used up a spot for him for five years, passing up draft picks year after year, just to keep him. It will pay off, but what if it didn’t? Jacob Markstrom was drafted 31st overall in 2008. The wait time on him to help out in fantasy hockey? Nine years. (nov23)

17. So, why is everyone diving at a guy like Drew Commesso? He was drafted 46th overall. Meanwhile, a guy like Collin Delia is available. Or, Jonas Johansson. Neither of those two have great upside…but the wait time is pretty close to zero! Could a backup-caliber goalie be fantasy relevant? Well, I suppose you could ask Darcy Kuemper owners that question. Or, Craig Anderson owners. Pekka Rinne was a mediocre AHL goalie and at 26 had hardly had a sniff of the NHL. How did he end up doing? (nov23)

18. Both Logan Couture and Sean Monahan have fallen out of the Top 100 Roto Rankings. 2019-20 was a down season for both players when taking into account not only overall points but also points per game. I was recently asked why Monahan is not in the top 100. This article is the best explanation I can give, although I’ve since added Monahan back to the wait list as he could be back there with a rebound season.

Couture was held back by both a fractured ankle (missed 18 games) and overall declining production from the Sharks. If you take into account points per game, he was tied with Tomas Hertl for the team lead in points per game (0.75 PTS/GP). That points-per-game total is relatively consistent with what he has produced over the last five seasons. I wouldn’t be surprised if with better luck the Sharks bounce back (or improve to some degree) from 2019-20, which Couture would benefit from. At this point in his career, he’s a relatively safe option. (nov22)

19. Meanwhile, Monahan’s 0.69 PTS/GP was his lowest since his rookie season of 2013-14. All of Calgary’s primary scoring options (and for that matter, San Jose’s as well) fell off in 2019-20 from 2018-19. That undoubtedly had a major effect on Monahan and usual linemate Johnny Gaudreau. After posting back-to-back 30+ goal seasons, Monahan sagged to just 22 in 2019-20. However, with a lower-than-normal 7.1 5-on-5 shooting percentage in 2019-20, Monahan seems like a candidate to rebound in the goal department. Don’t draft him assuming the point-per-game production of 2018-19. If Gaudreau doesn’t rebound in 2020-21, then chances are that Monahan doesn’t either.

Based on the three-year averages, I’ll conclude that Monahan is the better player, and at five years younger (26) is the more desirable keeper own. However, I like the value that this owner was able to claim Couture for. The key to auction drafts is determining relative worth. If you can obtain productive players for a low price, then that leaves more money to shoot for the stars. (nov22)

20. I’m hoping there’s still some juice to squeeze from Pekka Rinne as he plays out the final year of his contract. New coach John Hynes has already begun the handover of the starting goaltending to Juuse Saros, who started all four of the Preds’ play-in games and most games down the stretch as the hot hand. Saros was one of the league’s hottest goalies before the season pause (8 GP, 1.68 GAA, .951 SV%), while Rinne allowed eight goals to Edmonton the last time he started (March 2).

Coaching changes matter to goalies. Since Hynes took over as head coach on January 7, Rinne has played 11 games while posting a 3.59 GAA and .895 SV%. Meanwhile, Saros has played 19 regular-season games, posting a 2.13 GAA and .935 SV%. Saros followed up with a 3.22 GAA and .895 SV% during Nashville’s four postseason games against low-scoring Arizona, which put a damper on any momentum he built up during the last two months of the regular season. (nov22)

21. Rinne finished the 2019-20 season with some abysmal numbers (3.17 GAA, .895 SV%), but his dropoff was sudden. He was a consistent fantasy option before that, playing in at least 55 games in each of his previous five seasons with no higher than a 2.50 GAA in any of those five seasons. His career accomplishments have been impressive, not the least of which was being named the top fantasy goalie of the past decade by this website (I take responsibility for that).

If this is it for Rinne as far as helping your fantasy team, then the aging curve wasn’t graceful to the now-38-year-old goalie – it whacked him suddenly. Saros has never played 50 games in a season at any level dating back to his days playing in Finland, so bet the under on him reaching that number (even if the season isn’t shortened much). That should make Rinne one of the busier backups, if you want to call him that. Remember that the tight 2020-21 schedule will be very two-goalie focused, which could give an older goalie like Rinne more time to recover without keeping him cold so that he can’t generate a rhythm. (nov22)

Have a good week, folks – be safe!!

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