It still feels strange that there's cold weather yet no NHL hockey being played. But it's business as usual here at the mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions while also giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it to me. The earlier you send me a question the more likely it is to be included, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

 

Question #1 (from Anthony)

I'm in a 12-team points only keep four league where each team starts 5F, 3D, 1G. I've narrowed potential keepers to: Nathan MacKinnon, Evgeni Malkin, Mark Scheifele, Mika Zibanejad, and John Carlson. My sure things are MacKinnon and Carlson. Which of the other three does not make the cut?

 

One missing piece of information is whether there are IR spots; however, for purposes of answering this question, I'll assume there are. This is relevant when talking about Malkin, as he's still as elite as they come when healthy; but if there was no IR, that would be a factor.

I totally agree about MacKinnon and Carlson. MacKinnon should be a top three, or at worst top five, scorer for the foreseeable future.  Carlson, although turning 31 in January, has undoubtedly the best deployment of any rearguard when it comes to scoring and has shown he's a points machine.

If there is an IR, I think Malkin has to be a keeper. Looking at the last three seasons, each of which came after Malkin turned 30, he's cumulatively sixth in the NHL in points per game (1.21) with two of the top 16 points per game outputs in these three seasons. And although he does miss time each season, let's say misses 15 total games. If he gets 1.21 points per game in the 67 he plays, that's 81 points; and when you add the output of the player who takes his place, you get 90-95+ points from that lineup spot. So even with him all but assured to miss time every season, if there's an IR he's still a must keep.

Zibanejad has arrived as an elite NHLer. Yes, his shooting percentage last season was elevated; but his IPP rose for the third straight season and he got his 75 points in 40 games of 57 played. Looking at other players who had at least a point in exactly 40 games, their average point total was 56. That means Zibs is an explosive yet also a consistent scorer.  And all this occurred on a Rangers team that was already very good in 2019-20 but stands to improve even further due to, among other factors, the addition of Alexis Lafreniere and the maturation of Adam Fox. He's a keeper too.

That leaves Scheifele, who is one of the most "what you see is what you get" players in the NHL. And as noted in detail in my most recent Forum Buzz column, what you get from him is the 80-85 point scoring pace he's posted each of the last four seasons. Could he still have another gear? It's doubtful, as he's already 27 and simply does not shoot enough. In short, if Scheifele was going to be a big scorer, he'd already be one or would be a higher volume shooter. He's your drop. Good luck!

 

Question #2 (from John)

I’m in a 12-team pool where we are allowed 5 keepers at any position. It's points only for skaters. Goalie points are 2 points for a win, 3 more for a shutout, and -0.5 points if the goalie gives up more than 3 goals in a game. We start only one goalie each week.

 

Four of my keepers will be Sebastian Aho, Mitch Marner, Elias Pettersson and John Carlson. For my last keeper I want it to be a netminder and have it narrowed down to Jacob Markstrom and Jordan Binnington. My concern is that while Binnington had a good regular season, his return to play was underwhelming. With Pietrangelo gone I also think his defense is weaker. On the other hand there's Markstrom, whom Calgary paid big bucks to land, performed very well in Vancouver, and seemingly has a better all-around defense in from of him. Which do you keep – Binnington or Markstrom?

 

If we assess the last two seasons collectively, Binnington holds the edge in areas that matter for your league. Binnington won two-thirds of the games in which he appeared, versus 50% for Markstrom, had eight shutouts to Markstrom's three, plus gave up three or more goals in 32 of his 82 appearances versus 49 in 103 for Markstrom.

It is true that Binnington laid an egg in the playoffs, plus was not faring well going back as far as the last two-quarters of the season, with 11 wins in his last 20 starts and only eight of those being quality starts. That being said, Markstrom also tailed off a bit as the season wore on, with six wins in his last 11 starts and only five of those being quality starts, but then righted his ship during the playoffs with 11 of his 14 starts being quality starts.

As far as the defense in front of them, yes Pietrangelo is gone from St. Louis but so is T.J. Brodie from Calgary. Both teams also added defensemen, Torey Krug to St. Louis and Christopher Tanev to Calgary. And although Tanev is the more goalie-friendly of the two, Boston was able to manage well with Krug on its team for all these years. Also, the Blues brought in Justin Faulk in anticipation of Pietrangelo likely not re-signing, thus cushioning the loss.

Although there is a legitimate concern that Binnington's early career run is not sustainable as teams see him for a second or third time and figure him out, there's just as much reason to worry with regard to Markstrom having a post-UFA let down. After all, if it can happen to Sergei Bobrovsky it can happen to a goalie like Markstrom too.

There's also the reality that St. Louis has gone all-in on Binnington, trading away Jake Allen, who was one of the top back-ups this past season. They realize that during his rookie season run Binnington was able to start many games, so he's likely to be among the league leaders in starts, which in turn should give him plenty of wins, as St. Louis still projects to be a solid team. In contrast, although given how much he's being paid Markstrom is the true #1 starter in Calgary, David Rittich figures to get more time in net than whoever emerges as the St. Louis back-up. So another advantage to Binnington.

On paper, Binnington is the keep. And you can take solace in the fact that most of your fellow GMs are likely wrestling with tough goalie keeper decisions as well, meaning that netminders of Markstrom's caliber should be available at the draft. Good luck!

 

Question #3 (from Adam)

I'm in a non-Cap 10 team H2H League. Rosters are 26 players, with each team keeping up to 16 and starting, during the season, 4C, 4LW, 4RW, 6D, and 2G. Scoring categories are G, A, Pts, PPPts, +/-, SOG, HIT, BLK, W, SV, GAA, SV%, and SHO. As of now, I envision keeping the following players (position(s) in our league listed in parentheses):

Forwards – Nikita Kucherov (RW), Mika Zibanejad (C, RW), Jack Eichel (C), Sean Couturier (C), Brayden Schenn (C, LW) Anthony Mantha (RW, LW) Tom Wilson (RW), Evander Kane (LW) Pierre-Luc Dubois (C, LW), Brock Boeser (RW) Kevin Fiala (C, LW, RW), Oliver Bjorkstrand (RW, LW)

Defensemen – Cale Makar

Goalies – Carter Hart, Sergei Bobrovsky, Tristan Jarry

That would mean the following players would not be kept:

Forwards – Kailer Yamomoto (C, RW) Victor Olofsson (RW, LW), Mikael Backlund (C) Nick Foligno (LW, RW), Dustin Brown (LW, RW)

Defensemen – Drew Doughty, Adam Fox, Rasmus Ristolainen, Alexander Edler

Goalies – Marc-Andre Fleury

 I'm having second thoughts about Bob, Jarry and Bjorkstrand, wondering if instead I should swap in any of Yamamoto, Olofsson, Fox, Doughty or Risto. I'm confident I need to keep at least two goalies and am heavily leaning towards keeping three, given that 5 of 13 categories are goalie-related. But I also realize that goalie situations are fluid and in many cases leagues are won not by the goalies kept or drafted but instead by those picked up.

How many goalies do you keep, and which one(s)? If you keep all 3 goalies, do you remove any skaters from my keep list in favor of one or more from my not keep list? And what do you do if you think I should keep fewer than two goalies?

 

In a ten-team league where just under 40% of scoring comes from two goalies who comprise 10% of your starters, I agree goalies should be prioritized. Also, when you can keep 16 players, retaining more goalies is easier to justify. Think of it this way, if you kept two, it would mean 12.5% of your keepers were goalies, while if you kept three then it would be 18.75%. That is not a major difference. Also, a third guaranteed starting goalie is most likely worth more than what would be your 14th best skater.

Of course, this all only makes sense if you think that your three goalies will be valuable, since if you keep three then you'll probably draft at most one more, so you'd be banking a lot on these three to give you the stats you need to win your categories. The good news is from where I sit, you'll have three guys who will be true #1 goalies, versus 1As, which is so key in today's NHL, as after all Pittsburgh traded Matt Murray to hand the reins to Jarry and under Alain Vigneault Hart has looked better by the game, and shined under the bright spotlight of the Stanley Cup playoffs. As for Bobrovsky, I stated in my last mailbag that based on what happened to other goalies who won two Vezinas, he should have more gas left in the tank, enough for one or even two more 35+ win seasons. So for your league and given your netminder choices, I like the idea of keeping all three as it will give you a better bang for your keeper buck than keeping two and another skater.

The question then becomes whether to not keep one or more of your skaters and instead swap in one or more of those you had earmarked to not be kept. I know you said you had second thoughts about Bjorkstrand, but he was playing too great for too long in 2019-20 to not be kept.

Where I might want to make a change is swapping out Couturier, since Philly is undergoing an identity change to where it is becoming more of a defensively focused team and I think Couturier's 70 point pace from last season is his ceiling for 2020-21, with 65 points being more likely. Plus, he's a pure center, which is not only the deepest position in fantasy but also does not give you the roster flexibility of other forwards. I'd swap in Fox, who scored at a 49 point pace despite barely starting to scratch the surface of what he might bring to the table. Yes, New York has Tony DeAngelo, and as I've said before in this column only six times since 2010-11 has a team had two 50+ point d-men; however, I think this is the season where Fox steps up and DeAngelo, whose numbers were padded by unsustainable luck (see my recent Goldipucks column for more on that), sees his offensive role dialled back. And if somehow Fox doesn't provide more value than Couturier this season, he offers a very bright future, whereas soon Couturier will start to slow in the normal course.

The other question is whether to keep Risto or Doughty instead of Wilson. Without PIM Wilson's value is not quite as high. And although he hits a ton, that can be found elsewhere. Doughty is "the guy" for his team, but not a great team at the moment; and although Doughty is only 30, he's logged a whole lot of miles and might be slowing. Risto would be a clear cut keep if he was traded, since if he isn't then he figures to get pigeonholed into a more defensive role while Rasmus Dahlin is deployed at even strength and on the PP in manners conducive to scoring. Still, Risto hits and blocks a ton shoots a good amount, and likely will give you close to a point per every other game. So although an argument certainly can be made to keep Wilson or Doughty, I'm keeping Risto, as his downside is still pretty darn good and if he's traded his upside could be huge.  But if you really want to keep Wilson you could drop Schenn instead, as Schenn's stats could suffer without Vladamir Taraensko.

As for the other guys, Yamamoto and Olofsson are tempting given what they showed in 2019-20 and their likely roles for 2020-21 and beyond; but I feel they're not upgrades over your weakest forwards. So don't swap either one of them in. Good luck!

 

Question #4 (from Joel)

In my league – which counts the standard ESPN categories – teams can keep 4F, 2D and 1G each year. My goalie keeper is set (Igor Shesterkin) but I'm agonizing over my last cut for both F and D. For forwards, I've got Nikita Kucherov and Nathan MacKinnon as locks, then I can keep two of Mika Zibanejad, Aleksander Barkov, and Johnny Gaudreau. I'm mostly sold on Zibs, but who's the better bet to bounce back, Sasha or Johnny Hockey? For defensemen, I can keep two of Dahlin, Chabot and DeAngelo. Dahlin’s ceiling is too high to not keep him even if he might be another year or two from superstardom. Chabot is the better player, I believe, but DeAngelo is on the better team and has better PP numbers (assuming he doesn’t lose his spot to Adam Fox). Is DeAngelo for real or could he be Erik Gustafsson 2.0? Would you keep Chabot or DeAngelo?

 

Let's start with defensemen, where, as luck would have it, I covered both Chabot and DeAngelo in the same Goldipucks column. I suggest you give that a (re)read; however, to sum things up, it showed why Chabot's 2019-20 was very unsustainably cold, whereas DeAngelo likely overperformed, perhaps but a substantial degree.

Since I wrote that, Ottawa added Evgeni Dadonov and Alex Galchenyuk, both of whom should help bolster Ottawa's PP, which had one of the worst conversion percentages of all teams in the past five seasons. Try to trade DeAngelo for picks; if unsuccessful, drop him for Chabot.

As for forwards, I certainly agree that Zibs, whom I discussed above, is a lock to keep. Barkov versus Gaudreau, however, is a very tough decision.

Both had a superb 2018-19 then came back to earth in 2019-20. For Barkov, 2018-19 was his only season besting a point per game, versus Gaudreau, who had done so for two straight seasons before faltering in 2019-20. What concerns me about Barkov is for the past three seasons, even including his great 2018-19, he's had an IPP of 64.6% to 67.2%. That is quite low for a top line center and shows he's not a huge driver of offense. Contrast that to Gaudreau, whose IPP has been above 72% each of the last five seasons, although on the negative side it has dropped three seasons in a row.

I'd say Gaudreau has more pure talent, but Barkov is not far behind and is in a better playing situation. As such, Gaudreau offers more home run potential, whereas Barkov has a higher floor. Lastly, we can't entirely look past Barkov's injury issues, even though those seem to now be in the rearview mirror, with him having missed no more than a handful of games in the past three seasons.

With Kucherov, MacKinnon and Zibs already as keepers, I'd gamble on Gaudreau because he's shown more in the past and I feel he will have the motivation to play well in 2020-21 to prove his doubters wrong or to help facilitate a trade. That's enough to put Gaudreau ahead of Barkov, whose injury-prone past, lack of multiple great seasons and recurring low IPP put him a notch below Johnny Hockey. Good luck!

 

Question #5 (from Jim)

Who would be your top ten rookie picks for a dynasty draft that includes goalies?

 

As knowledgeable as I like to think I am, for sure the best resource for answering this question would be the DobberHockey Keeper League Fantasy Hockey Pack, which can be ordered here and includes the DobberHockey Fantasy Guide plus the 2020 Fantasy Hockey Prospects Report. After that, take a look at this Weekly Top Ten column where it listed the top ten picks in a dynasty draft. Those guys are experts in this area, so I think their list could be used as a good guidepost.

But because you asked me the question, I'll give it my best shot, although not knowing the categories makes it tough. I'll assume since it's a dynasty the top players from previous years are already owned, meaning we're looking solely at players from the 2020 draft class, as was the case with the Top Ten list.

At the outset, and unlike what occurred in the Top Ten list draft, I'm not taking Yaroslav Askarov. Yes, he was drafted 11th overall, which is the earliest a goalie was picked since Jack Campbell was grabbed 11th a decade ago; however; if the career of Campbell isn't enough to caution against picking a goalie among the top ten of a dynasty draft, how about the fact that since 2000-01 there've been a grand total of five instances of a goalie getting 30+ wins in a season before age 23 and only two instances since 2011-12 of a goalie doing so before the age of 24 (Matt Murray at age 22 in 2016-17 and Andrei Vasilevskiy at age 23 in 2017-18).

Also, when younger goalies do excel, it tends to be those from North America, as you have to go back to 2013-14 to when any non-North American netminder other than Vas won 30+ games while younger than 26 (Sergei Bobrovsky at age 25 in 2013-14). Even highly-touted Igor Shesterkin will turn 25 this season and wasn't a top pick, while Ilya Samsonov was a first-rounder but will be 24 and might be splitting time with Henrik Lundqvist for 2020-21. So early drafted goalies are uncertain in terms of panning out; and if they do, it tends to take a while, especially for those not from North America. As such, I'm not taking Askarov with one of the top ten picks. 

As for my picks, I think Quinton Byfield will be superb; but the first pick has to be Alexis Lafreniere. After those two I probably go with Marco Rossi due to his upside combined with his likelihood of making an impact soon. Fourth I'm going with Cole Perfetti due to Winnipeg needing someone just like him, plus his talent and the chance to be on the team while it's still elite. The next two picks should be Tim Stutzle and Lucas Raymond, but it's tough to say in which order. Probably I go with Raymond before Stutzle, as I believe Detroit will be very good within three years whereas I have zero trust in Ottawa to make the team better any time soon.

After those six it gets less certain. I think I go with Jamie Drysdale for pick seven as like Perfetti he has the talent to be great plus should get an opportunity to make an impact sooner rather than later. I'm not wowed by Alexander Holtz; but he's probably the safe pick at eight. For nine, I'm picking Seth Jarvis, who seems like the last remaining tier one talent. And finally, although I didn't advocate taking Askarov, I think it is worth a risk to reach for Yegor Chinakhov, just as the Blue Jackets did. Good luck!

 

Question #6 (from Brad)

If, as looks to be more the case with each passing day, the 2020-21 season will be shortened, how do you think it will affect teams? Will more experienced teams like Boston, Pittsburgh, Washington be benefitted by more likely being able to hit the ground running? Or might the opposite be the case? Basically, what do you think fantasy ripple effects might be?

 

This is the magic question on every poolie's mind. What do we know as of now? Only that there are strong rumors of there indeed being a shortened season, most likely between 48 and 60 regular-season games, with the goal being not to play well into the summer such that, presumably, things can go back to normal in terms of the start date and duration for the 2021-22 campaign.

What we don't know is how the 48-60 games would occur, although more likely than not Canadian teams only will play other teams from north of the border. If so, that would likely be a net benefit to these teams, inasmuch as none of them were among the top ten in the NHL when it came to winning percentage in 2019-20. In a similar vein, if there's a Northeast division, it'd include many of the NHL's better teams and really hurt Buffalo and New Jersey, who some felt were each on the cusp of starting to turn things around. A Central division would be a mix of very good, good, and bad teams, whereas a Western division could be one where Colorado, Dallas and Vegas players should do well, what with playing the likes of Anaheim, San Jose, LA and Arizona, who were some of the worst teams last season.

A big question is what all this will do in terms of goalies. If teams end up playing a chunk of games within a period of weeks, followed by time off, that'd be a compressed schedule and presumably hurt the value of goalies who'd normally start 60%+ of their teams' games. Or perhaps teams won't be afraid to play goalies a lot, figuring they can rest them when there is time off. My guess is teams for whom a goalie is by far their best player will lean on him, while the rest probably will err on the side of caution and not overplay a goalie, at least until it gets close to playoff qualifying time.

Fewer games likely mean more teams jockeying in playoff contention, which, in turn, could mean veterans being leaned on heavily and rookies being deemphasized, especially as the season goes on. The exception would be teams who are out of the playoff hunt early, as they might figure they have nothing to lose and will give younger players a long look in this "lost season."

Although there has been talk of bringing in early the teams which didn't make the play-in or playoffs last season, I still think the extremely long gap between NHL games for them will lead to rustiness early on. On the other hand, players who are seeing game action overseas now or before the season starts should be better prepared to hit the ground running. I'd also be even warier of band-aid boys than normal, as during a shortened season might mean more injuries and each missed game will be more impactful.

Those are my thoughts as of now. Once the NHL lays things out in detail we'll know even more about what the ripple effects will be. Good luck!

 

Question #7 (from Ariel)

I'm in a 12 team H2H keep six league starting 2C, 2RW, 2LW 4D, 1UTIL, 2G (min 3 starts) and 5 bench spots, with categories of G, A, P, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, FOW, HIT, BLK, GS, W, GAA, SV% and SHO. My roster is below; who do you see as my six keepers and why?

C: Jack Eichel, Evgeni Malkin, Dylan Larkin

LW: Jake Guentzel, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evander Kane, Jonathan Huberdeau

RW: Brian Rust, Kevin Fiala, T.J. Oshie, Kailer Yamamoto

D: Cale Makar, Jeff Petry, Keith Yandle, Damon Severson 

G: Andrei Vasilevskiy, Darcy Kuemper, Jaroslav Halak

 

At first glance, the six names that jumped out were Eichel, Malkin, Guentzel, Huberdeau, Makar and Vasilevskiy. The question is whether anyone else, upon further review, is better than one of more of those six. What would've been good to know is whether any of these players were eligible at another position other than what is denoted, as that could raise or lower their value accordingly.

Let's go position by position. With only two centers starting and center being the deepest position in fantasy, you don't want to keep three, so Larkin is out. Malkin is an injury risk, but the categories are great for him and there's a bench if/when he gets hurt. As for Eichel, all he's done is up his scoring pace every season he's been in the league, and I see that continuing until he gets in 100-110+ territory. 

At LW, Kane has been a stud in leagues with SOG and Hits but become a far more consistent scorer in San Jose, both at ES and on the PP. His Hits and SOG are not as superb as they once were, but that's a trade-off most poolies are more than willing to accept. As for RNH, few players were as hot as he was over the latter part of the season, with 41 points in his final 30 games and 81 SOG in his last 23. Also, if he's not signed before the end of 2020-21, then he'll have the motivation to play well in order to up his value as a UFA. Could one or both make more sense than Huberdeau and/or Guentzel? Not Huberdeau, who has the ninth most points of any NHLer over the past two seasons and the sixth most PPPts. Couple that with solid but not spectacular hits and SOG, and he's for sure a keeper. As for Guentzel, dating back to the 2018-19 season he has 107 points in his last 103 games, of which 54 were goals. And he was scorching just before getting hurt in 2019-20, with 33 points (12 goals) in his last 20 contests.

Is Guentzel indeed a better keep than RNH? Guentzel holds the edge in hits, yet RNH also gets you FOW. GWG also would seem to favor Guentzel, who scores more goals in general plus the Pens figure to win more games, giving those on the team a shot at getting a GWG. The last factor is who would be an easier redraft, and of the two it's probably RNH, as folks know that Guentzel is stapled to Sidney Crosby whereas RNH's scorching end to 2019-20 is disguised by his season-long numbers, which were not even point per game. So I think I'm sticking to Huberdeau and Guentzel as keepers.

At RW, the choices are Rust, Fiala, and Yamamoto. The issue with Rust is his shooting percentage was sky high and he lacks a track record. Fiala had a breakout 2019-20; however, due to the ice time limits that Minnesota places on its players, others teams focusing more on him now, plus the departures of Eric Staal, Mikko Koivu, and even Ryan Donato, it's not clear whether he can keep up the point per game pace at which he played for the majority of 2019-20. And although Yamamoto was nearly a point-per-game player too, he didn't get a sniff of PP1 time, and if an Edmonton winger were to be kept, it would be RNH, not him. Long story short, I think there are no RWs worth keeping. Yes, that creates a void; but it is possible that one or more of the other keepers might already have – or gain – eligibility at RW, which would help address that issue.

As for defense and goalie, I think Makar and Vas are head and shoulders above the other options. And neither one would make sense to remove in favor of RNH, as both are just too great, plus they fill what would otherwise be void at those positions.

So in the end I'd stick with the six who jumped out to me: Eichel, Malkin, Guentzel, Huberdeau, Makar and Vasilevskiy. If you believe in RNH, then you could try to trade Huberdeau, as although he's great he's also unlikely to improve further, so you probably could get a fair return for him in the form of a nice draft pick or two. But the safe bet is to just stick with Huberdeau and what he brings to the table, and then hope to land RNH at the draft. Good luck!

 

Question #8 (from Shaun)

I'm in a keeper league (keep 8) which counts G, A, PPP, +\-, defensemen Pts, PIMs, GAA, SV%, and W. I need to select my eight keepers from this list of 12: Nikita Kucherov, Elias Pettersson, Patrick Laine, Jack Hughes, Kevin Fiala, Brock Boeser, Cale Makar, John Klingberg, Igor Shesterkin, Ilya Samsonov, Jacob Markstrom, and Dominik Kubalik. My thinking was the cuts would be four of Boeser, Klingberg, Fiala, Samsonov, or Markstrom. Do you agree with narrowing it down to these five? Either way, who would your cuts be?

 

Let's start with the auto-keeps, which are Kucherov, Pettersson, Laine, and Makar. So that leaves four more spots with eight contenders. Not knowing how many other teams are in the league, roster sizes, how many starts at each position, nor whether this is an H2H league makes this a bit more difficult. As a reminder to those sending questions, please err on the side of inclusion in terms of giving me details about your league as the more I know the better advice I can give.

What's clear is goalies are key, as they contribute to three categories versus five for forwards and six for d-men. That being said, two of those three goalie categories are not ones where the number of starts is paramount. As such, a goalie who might get 20% fewer starts than a workhorse but have solid GAA and SV% is arguably worth more than a netminder who plays a ton and might get wins, but at a cost of hurting the team's GAA and SV%. All things considered, if the league has eight or more teams, I'm keeping two netminders, and if there are 16 teams I'd keep all three.

How do I rank the goalie options? Samsonov would be at the bottom, as he has barely more experience than Shesterkin and played worse as 2019-20 went on, plus didn't exactly dazzle at the AHL level. Is it still realistic to expect that he has the tools to become a true #1 goalie? More likely than not; however, he's not in the same class as Markstrom and Shesterkin.

If it came down to only keeping one, the safer pick would be Markstrom, who should be in that sweet spot of a lot of starts but also above average for GAA and SV%. Shesterkin could well be better than Markstrom; but as great as he's been leading up to the NHL who's to know whether he'll succeed amid the pressure and spotlight of not just being a starting NHL goalie, but one who plays for the high profile Rangers. But chances are the league size would suggest you keep both. If somehow this league has fewer than eight teams, Markstrom would be the safer pick but Shesterkin would be who you keep if you want to swing for the fences, with some but not a lot of downside.

How do I rank the rest of the skaters? Hughes is the big wild card. Among the 23 forwards who skated for 50+ games as an 18-year-old dating back to 2000-21, his point per game rate was the third-worst. That having been said, the two beneath him were Ryan O'Reilly and Scott Hartnell, who both turned into successful NHLers, so perhaps his poor performance is not caused for concern? Still, I think his stock is way down, enough so that unless this is a 16 team league I wouldn't make him one of my keepers. Why the cutoff at 16 teams? In that case, it would be important to hold onto him because of the chance he has to be special, and what with nearly all #1 overall forward picks in the last 15 years turning out very good to superb.

I don't keep Klingberg, as I fear Miro Heiskanen's performance during the playoffs made it such that he will get top deployment, leaving Klingberg very much a secondary option. On some teams that would not be a big deal; however, with Dallas, not an offensive powerhouse to begin with, and to be without Tyler Seguin for a chunk of 2020-21, I can't see Klingberg scoring at much more than a 45 point full season pace. Yes, he could do great things in a couple of years if he goes elsewhere when his contract is up. But it's not worth holding onto him for that.

That means the last keep(s) will be one or more of Fiala, Kubalik, or Boeser. I could see a universe in which all three finish within five points of each other in 2020-21. Still, let's decide how they rank.

I worry about Kubalik because while he did get 24 points in his last 27 games and shined in the playoffs as well, he had a very high shooting percentage, high enough to raise eyebrows. Plus, there is enough talent on the Hawks such that it isn't clear Kubalik will have a locked-in spot on PP1. Boeser's 2019-20 was a step back; however, by age 21 he had totals of 59 goals, 116 points, 413 SOG and above 0.8 cumulative points per game average. Since 2000-01 only 17 other NHLers met those criteria, with all but one who already is 24-years-old or older having scored 90+ points in a season. Plus, on paper, he should be the first-line winger and on PP1. Fiala is perhaps the most purely talented of the three. But I worry the issues I laid out above (ice time, teams keying on him, departed teammates) will limit his production, to an extent that perhaps he even falls short of what he did last season. As such, I'd go with Boeser as the pick and Fiala as the runner up.

So the keepers are Kucherov, Pettersson, Laine, Makar, Markstrom and Boeser. If the league has eight or more teams, Shesterkin is also a keep. If it has 16 teams, Hughes is the final keeper, whereas if it has fewer than 16, then Fiala grabs the final spot. Good luck!

 

Question #9 (from Generational Talent)

I'm in an eight team, H2H, keep six league starting 4C, 4LW, 4RW, 4D, 1 UTIL, with two goalie starts max per game night and categories of G(3), A(2), PPP(1), GWG(3), PIM(.3), HIT(.2); W(3), L(-2), SV(.2), SO(5). Given the league set-up, who would be your six keepers among this group:

 

C – Jack Eichel, Elias Pettersson, Anze Kopitar, Dylan Larkin, Jack Hughes

LW – Brady Tkachuk, Jake Guentzel, Timo Meier, Tyler Toffoli

RW – Patrik Laine, Anthony Mantha, Alex Debrincat, Cam Atkinson, Rickard Rakell

D – Cale Makar, Rasmus Dahlin, Shea Weber, Oscar Klefbom

G – Sergei Bobrovsky, Igor Shesterkin, Phillip Grubauer

 

First off, if this is the entire roster, then that means there are 21 players per team, for a total of 168 owned league-wide. As such, six keepers comprise just over a quarter of one's team. Given this, I think a strategy of keeping surer things over risk/reward guys is wise, except perhaps reaching on one keeper as if it does not pan out the results won't be devastating.

Sure things here are Eichel, Pettersson, and Makar. As noted above, all Eichel has done is score more points every year and there's no reason to believe he's neared his ceiling. Pettersson has an 80 point downside and this could be the season he explodes, especially given the room he has for natural gains in SOG and ice time. As for Makar, all he did was follow-up a stellar rookie season with point-per-game output in the playoffs. His deployment is likely to be the most conducive to being a top defenseman producer with the potential exception of John Carlson. He'll be a cornerstone keeper.

Who are those in consideration for the other three spots? I'd say Shesterkin, Tkachuk, Guentzel, Dahlin and Laine. Of those, I like Dahlin the best. What he did as a teen has not been seen in literally decades and he only stands to get better, both on his own and as the team around him improves. He will hit 70 points in at least one of the next three seasons, and you can't let a player like that go.

If SOG was counted Tkachuk would be a no-brainer keep; but even without that category, I like him as one of the eight. Put it this way – what he produced in just hits and PIM would be equivalent to 40 goals; so even if he doesn't score a ton, his banger style will pay huge dividends.

The last spot is tough. First, we have to decide between Laine and Guentzel, and I'm taking the one who's been a point per game player and had 33 points in his last 20 games before getting hurt, namely Guentzel. It is possible that Laine gets moved and explodes, and I know I said to keep him above, but Crosby has never shown the kind of chemistry he has with Guentzel, and this is a guy who was able to get Chris Kunitz to 118 points in 128 games over a two-season stretch. A full season with Guentzel and Crosby both healthy could see them each push for 100 points, so he gets the edge over Laine.

That leaves Guentzel or Shesterkin. Given how shallow the league is and how it rewards goalies who play a lot since it's SV not SV% that counts, I'd go with Guentzel over Shesterkin.

I realize Shesterkin has the potential to be a truly special goalie; but as noted above, who's to say that will happen? He's played just 12 NHL games and was sheltered from the scrutiny and second-guessing that will come when he is "the guy" in net. Many a goalie thought to be a surefire success has ended up not panning out once it was put up or shut up time. I know above I said there is room for a swing for the fences keeper and Shesterkin fits that mould plus goalie categories do count for 33% of scoring despite making up a small fraction of one's overall roster; yet while there will be plenty of top goalies available to draft, there will not be players like Guentzel who could hit 100 points. Good luck!

 

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For those reading this now, it's never too early to start providing me with mailbag questions, which you can do in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.