Capped: A team-by-team buy and sell – Part 3
Alexander MacLean
2020-12-03
The first two weeks of the buy/sell series are complete (here & here) and there are some interesting teams heading in different directions to cover today. One team with a few aging stars and even more questions, and another without a player over the age of 32, but even more questions. Let's get back to it with the San Jose, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Ottawa.
To reiterate for the uninitiated, this multi-week feature will cover each NHL team, analyzing one player to buy and one to sell. These recommendations will be based on their performance versus cap hit. That means in non-cap leagues, some of these suggestions may not be as relevant, but that doesn't mean the analysis isn't relevant. Generally, these players will either be riding new contracts into the season or be expected to have a large shift in value, for one reason or another. We went alphabetically last year, so this time we're going for the reverse.
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San Jose Sharks
Buy: Tomas Hertl / Timo Meier
Current Cap Hit: $5,650,000 / 6,000,000
Both Hertl and Meier disappointed to the tune of 60-point paces after putting up better numbers the year before. Their established floor is now 60 points, and with Hertl healthy again, the line mates should be able to put 2020 behind them like the rest of us want to. Everything went wrong in San Jose last season, and the rebound is going to start with the best players. These two both have the upside to pace for 80 points while adding excellent peripherals, and should both see top unit power-play time.
Side note: I also still want to see the Sharks sign Anthony Duclair to put the trio together as a line. They would wreak havoc both around and through opponents' defenses.
Sell: Ryan Donato
Current Cap Hit: $1,900,000
No one on this team has a high stock after last season, so we're going to sell off one of their offseason acquisitions. Donato is still a season away from his breakout threshold, couldn't break the top-six on a Minnesota squad lacking in higher end forwards, and statistically due for some luck based regression which would cancel out any increases due to seeing more ice time in San Jose. If you really like him you could likely re-acquire him next summer for less than you get in return this year.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Buy: Jason Zucker
Current Cap Hit: $5,500,000
After being traded to the Penguins at the deadline last year, Zucker produced well with 12 points in 15 games and only three of those coming on the powerplay. With some more time to get accustomed to the group, he could be in line to flirt with his career high of 64 points. The perception on him of late has just been the 40- to 50-point player that he was held down to on some anemic Minnesota Wild teams of late. He's a 60+-point player that could possibly be bought as a 50-point player on an average contract.
Sell: Kris Letang
Current Cap Hit: $7,250,000
Letang had a relatively healthy season last year, and that along with his reputation for large fantasy contributions across the board should mean that his value is at more of a peak than a valley. On this contract, Letang has never been a bargain in cap leagues, however he has always been worth rostering. With him being 33 years old, and always an injury risk, this may be the last time to sell him to a contender and receive and genuine return.
Philadelphia Flyers
Buy: Erik Gustafsson
Current Cap Hit: $3,000,000
I covered Erik Gustafsson a few weeks ago, and mentioned that the 60-point barrier is more than just a pipe dream for him if two things happen. First, he needs top power-play time, and second, he needs to conquer the mental aspect that held him back while worrying about another contract. If Neal Pionk was highly valued in your league last year, then do your best not to miss out on this year's $3 million bargain, stat stuffing defenceman.
Sell: Ivan Provorov
Current Cap Hit: $6,750,000
While Gustafsson carries all of the easy offensive minutes, the depth of the Flyers' blueline will also allow Provorov not to have to play 25 minutes a game and wear himself out in the regular season. This will take away from both Provorov's offensive numbers and his quantities in the peripheral stats that he is so valued for. He is still going to be valuable, but this upcoming year may not be quite to his standards. The return for him can be massive.
Ottawa Senators
Buy: Erik Brannstrom
Current Cap Hit: $863,333
Erik Brannstrom has been forgotten, buried in the wasteland that is the Ottawa Senators of the past couple years. With their future looking bright, now is the time to get in on another slick puck-moving defenceman while everyone else is focused on the Cale Makars and Quinn Hugheses of the world. Brannstrom may not quite hit those highs, but he can certainly help your fantasy team more than whatever it should cost to acquire him right now.
Sell: Evgenii Dadonov
Current Cap Hit: $5,000,000
Past the obvious downgrade in his supporting cast from Florida to Ottawa, there are few other things to note with Dadonov that make him less appealing in fantasy leagues next year. First, he shot 15% last season, which may only be a little over high career high, but it is still a red flag when he is moving to a team where he won't get the same easy opportunities to finish at such a high rate. Secondly, his 63 percent offensive zone starts are higher than any Senators forward from last season, in part because the Sens don't have the same level of offensive zone time as better teams do. Additionally, Dadonov saw a high percentage of the powerplay time, and for an Ottawa team that draws less penalties, his more productive ice time with the man advantage will decrease. Bottom line is there are red flags all over for Dadonov.
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All statistics are all pulled from FrozenTools, and all contract info from Capfriendly. Follow me on Twitter @alexdmaclean.
Stay safe!