I find this NHL realignment for COVID topic very interesting. For starters, it's brought up the idea of a permanent Canadian division. I've gone on record as saying that I'm against it permanently for travel reasons, but I'd love to see it play out this season only. It'll be like Hockey Day in Canada – every Saturday and more. Winning the Canadian Division will take on extra historical meaning.

Much of the recent chatter about realignment has surrounded where the Minnesota Wild will play. They've been known as a "mushy middle" team for a while for their usual placement in the standings, but apparently this also relates to geography. Where they are placed could affect how competitive the Central Division is, as St. Louis is being discussed as the team that would move west if Minnesota is in the Central. This also has fantasy implications, as you may already be trying to forecast players on your fantasy team with a schedule that could possibly include only intra-divisional matchups. I have a specific example of that later on.  

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Team Canada's World Junior roster was announced on Friday. As expected, it contains many names that dynasty/keeper owners will be familiar with. So far, COVID hasn't made it easy for multiple teams involved, but let's hope they can pull it off.

Hockey Canada announces 25-man World Juniors roster.

ROSTER: https://t.co/pONH62ppE4 pic.twitter.com/muWNvaYtRT

— TSN (@TSN_Sports) December 11, 2020

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Since the NHL season is expected to be 56 games, Dobber has updated the projections in the Fantasy Guide and the Draft List accordingly. If you're looking for those exact numbers, then you can go to the Downloads section on the website and download an updated version. That's one more reason that the Dobber guide is the best fantasy guide out there. Let's just hope that the season isn't further reduced, or else Dobber will be busy again for a while.

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The trade department also showed signs of life on Friday. The Red Wings traded winger Dmytro Timashov to the Islanders for good ol' future considerations. Timashov split the 2019-20 season between the Wings and the Leafs, scoring nine points (4g-5a) in 44 games while averaging eight minutes per game. I don't think there's much to discuss for fantasy purposes, other than maybe this is the domino that sparks the remaining signings that we've been waiting for. Maybe.

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Earlier this week I guested on the Fantasy Hockey Life podcast with Jesse Severe and Victor Nuno, where I shared my expertise on the… Tampa Bay Lightning. Well, at least what you should expect fantasy-wise from their key players for the coming season.

31 previews finish strong with @Ian_Gooding of Dobber Hockey to talk @TBLightning. From cap pains to a Captain in pain the cup-winners were loaded with fantasy value @VictorNuno12 runs down the prospects in the Dig @TheHockeyWriter @Fantrax #fantasyhockey https://t.co/KbDT1aNMuy

— Fantasy Hockey Life (@fanhockeylife) December 10, 2020

We discussed goalies toward the end, specifically Andrei Vasilevskiy and if he really should be considered the top goalie in fantasy hockey. That got me thinking about some of the goalie advanced stats on Frozen Tools. One in particular that I think is worth looking at is GSAA (goals saved above average), which I've referenced in past Ramblings when discussing goalies. This stat can be found by clicking on the Quality Starts button when searching for goalies.

In case you're wondering what GSAA is, it calculates goal differential between goalie and league average. A higher positive number is better. It may be a function of the team to some degree, although a goalie with a strong individual performance (Connor Hellebuyck) can also stand out here. Last season's numbers are probably a reflection of who you wanted/did not want on your fantasy team.

Top 10 GSAA, 2019-20

Name	GP	GSAA	GSAA/60
CONNOR HELLEBUYCK	58	23.22	0.43
TUUKKA RASK	41	22.51	0.56
ANTON KHUDOBIN	30	17.75	0.63
DARCY KUEMPER	29	16.65	0.57
BEN BISHOP	44	13.28	0.32
PAVEL FRANCOUZ	34	13.06	0.41
ROBIN LEHNER	36	12.67	0.37
ANDREI VASILEVSKIY	52	12.13	0.23
ELVIS MERZLIKINS	33	12.10	0.40
ANTTI RAANTA	33	11.69	0.38

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Not surprisingly, Vasilevskiy is among the top 10 in goals-saved above average, along with Vezina Trophy nominees Hellebuyck and Tuukka Rask. However, if you sort by GSAA/60, Vasilevskiy falls to 16^th (0.23 GSAA/60) among goalies that have played at least 15 games. In fact, the likes of Cam Talbot and Mikko Koskinen had higher GSAA/60s, which should also be noted if you're looking for a goalie later in your draft. Among the goalies who finished above Vasilevskiy in GSAA/60, only Hellebuyck played in more games.

It's the volume of starts and wins where you really benefit from owning Vasilevskiy, though. He finished tied for third in 2019-20 with 52 games, first with 35 wins, and third with 1605 saves. I still like Vasilevskiy as the first goalie to draft in fantasy leagues, but that also assumes that your league counts wins. Expect plenty of those if Tampa Bay plays in a US "central" division that appears to be short on teams that could push the Lightning for the division title. Keep in mind that the Bolts may only be playing those teams as well with the new divisional format, assuming US-based teams only play in their own division like Canadian-based teams will be forced to.  

It might be the trendy thing to do in this day and age of analytics, but you shouldn't draft a goalie purely based on their skill level relative to other goalies. Strength of team and volume of starts are also huge in determining a goalie's overall contribution to your fantasy team. Vasilevskiy has both of those in spades. Don't overthink this one.  

Anton Khudobin

Khudobin might have been the surprise story of the 2020 playoffs. Yet there were already indicators that Dallas goaltending wouldn't fall off if he had to take over. In addition to his stellar 2.22 GAA and .930 SV%, Khudobin led all goalies who played at least 15 games with a 0.63 GSAA/60. His overall GSAA total is lower than that of Hellebuyck and Tuukka Rask because he played fewer games.

Khudobin no doubt benefits from a strong defensive system in Dallas, as Ben Bishop was also within the top 10 in GSAA in 2019-20. Now that Bishop is expected to be out of the Stars' lineup until late March because of knee surgery, Khudobin can safely be drafted in fantasy leagues as a starter. There's that old saying that a starter shouldn't lose his job because of injury, but I think Khudobin has at least forced a timeshare once both are fully healthy. Khudobin's underlying numbers show that he is deserving of the opportunity, and he should continue to thrive.

Bottom 10 GSAA, 2019-20

Name	GP	GSAA	GSAA/60
JIMMY HOWARD	27	-22.12	-0.97
DEVAN DUBNYK	30	-16.50	-0.59
MARTIN JONES	41	-15.01	-0.38
SERGEI BOBROVSKY	50	-14.91	-0.32
PEKKA RINNE	36	-14.22	-0.43
BRADEN HOLTBY	48	-14.04	-0.31
LOUIS DOMINGUE	17	-11.85	-0.89
MATT MURRAY	38	-11.60	-0.31
CARTER HUTTON	31	-10.99	-0.37
MALCOLM SUBBAN	21	-10.63	-0.56

Jimmy Howard

The former Wings' goalie clearly stands out as the worst goalie in this category. Not surprisingly, his -0.97 GSAA/60 was also the worst among goalies that had played at least 10 games. The 36-year-old free agent Howard has not been picked up by any team and may be at the end of the road. So there isn't much point in discussing him for fantasy purposes.

Devan Dubnyk/Martin Jones

Cover your eyes if you're a Sharks fan. Jones had the third-worst GSAA, while Dubnyk (as a member of the Wild) had the second-worst GSAA. If you take into account GSAA/60 and filter for goalies that played at least 15 games, the numbers were at least a little more generous. Dubnyk had the fourth-worst GSAA/60 (-0.59), while Jones had the eighth-worst GSAA/60 (-0.38). It's possible that a massive workload has caught up to both age 30+ goalies, who both started 60+ games per season from 2015-16 to 2018-19. Needless to say, neither goalie will come anywhere close to that in 2020-21. 

I totally expect the Sharks to ride the hot hand here, and can't really say who will be the opening-night starter. Although I think the Sharks could be an improved team, I won't be targeting either goalie in particular. But since you're really wondering who I'd choose, I'll go with Dubnyk. He needed to take a leave during the 2019-20 season for family reasons, so a fresh start might help as he tries to put 2019-20 behind him. Plus Jones' poor play began prior to 2019-20 (2.94 GAA, .896 SV%, -22.87 GSAA) and necessitated acquiring another proven goalie. 

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Finally, you may have caught the news that a 1979-80 graded Wayne Gretzky rookie card sold for a record $1.29 million. From my experience collecting cards, I believe this would have to have been a card that was either straight out of the pack or never handled by kids while at the same time being perfectly centered and cut. Definitely not one that was used to play flipsies! If you've got a Gretzky rookie, it's highly unlikely it would sell for that much money. Still, it might be worth the small investment of getting graded if it's in great condition.

Although I've collected a ton of hockey cards through the years, I've never had the good fortune of owning a Gretzky rookie. Much of that has to do with the fact that I didn't start collecting until a few years after, as the best time to obtain a Gretzky rookie would have been in a 25-cent wax pack with gum or trading with friends. Even though the price of some cards has increased considerably since those days, filling old sets (hockey and baseball) is something that I've gotten back into during the pandemic.

When I was a kid, hockey cards and stickers were one way that I could follow the NHL, particularly for teams that I didn't see very often on Hockey Night in Canada or the local Canucks broadcasts. Few things could replicate the anticipation of opening a pack to see which players were inside!

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For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding