Dobber’s offseason fantasy hockey grades – Tampa Bay Lightning

For the last 17 years (12 with The Hockey News) Dobber has reviewed each team from a fantasy-hockey standpoint and graded them.

The 18th annual review will appear here on DobberHockey throughout the summer…er, winter. This is not a review of the likely performance on the ice or in the standings, but in the realm of fantasy hockey both for the season ahead as well as the foreseeable future. Offensively, will the team perform? Are there plenty of depth options worthy of owning in keeper leagues? What about over the next two or three years? These questions are what I take into consideration when looking at the depth chart and the player potential on that depth chart.

Enjoy!

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Gone – Zach Bogosian, Carter Verhaeghe, Kevin Shattenkirk, Cory Conacher

Incoming – Andreas Borgman

Impact of changes – There were changes?

I suppose if you're going to have one offseason in which you don't turn over the on-ice personnel at all, then the offseason after winning the Cup is the time to do it. However, Shattenkirk gobbled up 1:22 of PP time each game and that will be divvied up between Ryan McDonagh and Mikhail Sergachev. And if Sergachev ends up getting paired with Victor Hedman, his ES numbers should improve as well.

Recent news of Nikita Kucherov's hip injury become so serious that it could threaten his season will certainly make waves in fantasy circles if it comes to fruition. The team is waiting to see how he responds to an injection, but on the other hand if he did go on LTIR then the team's cap troubles would be over. However, that would kill the value of some of the forwards, such as Alex Killorn, who rely a lot on Kucherov for their points. It's a situation worth watching.

Ready for full-time – The Lightning roster is pretty much set already, but defenseman Cal Foote stands the best chance to make it as far as prospects are concerned. Tampa didn't (yet) replace Shattenkirk, and since they are unlikely to roll into the season with just six defensemen, Foote is the best bet. Borgman, who played 48 games for Toronto in 2017-18 and is still only 25 years old, is another strong bet to make the jump. Borgman doesn't hold much for fantasy upside, but the 6-4 Foote has upside in the high-30s down the road, and in the meantime offers some help in the Hits and BLKS categories.

Mathieu Joseph is the best bet a forward to make the team. But that's not entirely certain because the team already has 13 forwards without him, 12 if Kucherov can't suit up. It's a strange position to be in, given that he already has 107 NHL games under his belt. He has the advantage in that he must clear waivers in order to be sent down. Although a potential two-way third-line forward, Joseph is still a little tentative at both ends of the ice and needs to assert himself. He's still only 23 so there is plenty of time to develop in that area.

Alexander Volkov had a very strong camp a year ago, earning him several callups. His play in the NHL showed that he wasn't quite ready. He had better be ready now because he has to clear waivers in order to be sent down. For the Lightning to do so, they would have to be pretty disappointed with what they see early on. The 23-year-old is a two-time 23-goal scorer at the AHL level. How does Coach Jon Cooper see Volkov's role with the team? Well, his most common linemates during his nine NHL games were Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos. In second place were Stamkos and Ondrej Palat. They're okay linemates, I guess. His odds of making the team really spike if Kucherov can't go. But let me be clear – Volkov is no Kucherov!

Alex Barre-Boulet is a smaller player who was never drafted. After his 116 points in 65 QMJHL games, the Lightning signed him right away. Since then, he took to the pro game right away, compiling 124 points in 134 career AHL games. He's still probably a year away, but he'll get some looks in the season ahead for sure.

Tampa Bay Lightning prospect depth chart and fantasy upsides can be found here

Fantasy Outlook – The Lightning have been the top-scoring team in the league for two three consecutive years. (I'll just leave that sentence from last year in there until it stops being true) That's really all a fantasy owner needs to see, but I'll include some filler below anyway.

The Lightning own the top goaltender to own in all of fantasy hockey (Andrei Vasilevskiy). They boast former NHL scoring champ Kucherov, who actually started last season slowly and was rapidly rising up the chart before the season was called due to Covid. He ended up seventh in scoring, but had he been able to play the last 12 games I do not doubt he would have made it into the top three. They own five-time 40-goal mand and one-time 60-goal man Stamkos. They have Victor Hedman on the blue line, and he's only been a top 15 scorer among defenseman for five years running. And those players are surrounded by plenty of other fantasy-worthy owns, such as point-per-game guy Brayden Point, Alex Killorn, Anthony Cirelli, Palat and up-and-comer Mikhail Sergachev. The prospect pipeline isn't great, in fact it's weak. But that's the price of success over time. The aforementioned list of players are either still in their prime or not yet at their prime. Still this is still a great team to invest in.

Fantasy Grade: A+ (last year was A+)

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2020 Offseason Fantasy Hockey Grades

Winnipeg

Washington

Vegas

Vancouver

Toronto