Fantasy Hockey Poll: Biggest Falls from Fantasy Grace
Rick Roos
2020-12-23
Every NHL player peaks at some point in his career. From there, usually, the downward descent is slow, with it being several more seasons before he either retires or ceases to become fantasy relevant. There are exceptions though, which is where this month's poll comes in.
Each of the 20 listed players tasted significant fantasy success, only to then come back to earth with a crashing thud. And, in most cases, it's all but assured they'll never taste the same level of fantasy success again. It's up to you to decide which of these players had the biggest falls from fantasy grace – that is, the five players who have been the biggest disappointments since their fantasy peak.
How should you measure each player versus the others? Looking at stats is of course key; but what also matters are the expectations that accompanied the player and how far short he fell. For example, if a player had a great season but most figured even at the time it was a fluke, then him failing to subsequently play at an elite level is less of a disappointment. Similarly, it's fair to say that the later in one's career a player peaked, the generally less glaring it is for him to have not performed as well thereafter. In short, level setting matters.
Injuries also are a factor to consider, as if a player was seemingly on the fast track to sustained fantasy stardom but was derailed by injuries – think Mike Green – then he's arguably less of a disappointment than another player who remained healthy but simply underperformed. What about players who performed poorly after getting traded? That's up to you to decide how to factor, although if they were truly elite then I'd think a change in scenery should not have stood in the way of sustained success. Lastly, although in some cases these players had their "fall from grace" several or even many years ago, when it actually happened does not matter, only how far they fell and how unexpected it was that they did.
Now that you know the bases on which to cast your votes, here are the 20 voting choices, listed alphabetically. You should choose the five whom you believe had the biggest falls from fantasy grace. The voting link is at the end of the column.
Jamie Benn – From 2014-15 through 2017-18 Benn was a fantasy machine, playing a gritty style while also posting a cumulative scoring rate above a point per game, all for a Dallas team that was never an offensive juggernaut. With that resume and Benn still in his 20s, poolies were willing to look past his 53 points in 78 games in 2018-19 as an aberration, until he followed that up with 39 points in 69 contests in 2019-20. While there were some signs of hope in that he had a better second half than first and tallied 19 points in 27 playoff contests, it looks like Benn's playing style has caught up to him and he could continue to struggle, if not get worse.
Devan Dubnyk – After taking the NHL by storm in the 2014-15 season and becoming a Vezina finalist in the process, Dubnyk had a few more good seasons. But since turning 30 it all seems to have gone downhill, with three straight seasons of declining SV% and increasing GAA. And he had a mere 26.7% quality start percentage in 2019-20, playing his way out of Minnesota in the process. Could he be rejuvenated in San Jose? Stranger things have happened; and the last time Dubnyk was given up for dead, he rose like a phoenix. But at 34, with how poorly he fared, and on a San Jose team that doesn't look primed for success, this might just be the beginning of the end for Dubnyk.
Loui Eriksson – After a great start to his career, Eriksson was the key piece coming to Boston in the Tyler Seguin trade. And sure enough with the Bs Eriksson saw his production rise with each season, culminating in 63 points in 2015-16, a full four seasons after the last of his three straight 70+ point campaigns with the Stars. That led to him inking a UFA deal with the Canucks, after which he not only has failed to equal his 63 points in a season, he doesn't even reach that number if you take his best two seasons with Vancouver! At 35 he's clearly toast and the only question is whether he's not as much of a disappointment as five others on this list.
Nick Foligno – I wouldn't fault you for wondering why Foligno is on this list, as the memory of his 73 points in 79 games in 2014-15 has faded so far from memory. Yes, he posted 51 points two seasons later; yet in his last three campaigns, he's failed to crack the point per every other game mark. Is he a disappointment though, or did everyone figure his one great season to be a fluke, making it so what's subsequently happened was not unexpected or at least not shocking?
Mark Giordano – Yes, Giordano was 35 when he posted 74 points in 78 games in 2018-19; but if he managed to do that, shouldn't a lot more have been expected of him than 31 points in 60 games for 2019-20? Gio did have a three season stretch of 56-63 point scoring pace not too long ago; however, is he a disappointment or more so just someone who caught lightning in a bottle to thrive despite being a gray beard?
Shayne Gostisbehere – After a rookie campaign that saw him post a 59 point scoring rate Ghost made a bigger splash with 65 points in 78 games in 2017-18. Despite great deployment and chance after chance, however, to say Ghost has failed to live up to expectations is a vast understatement, as since then he's collectively had 59 points in 120 games and looks to have worn out his welcome what with Philly trading for Erik Gustafsson (spoiler alert – he's next on the list). Most d-men who score 65 points that young don't fall off a cliff like him, but it seems like a reach to predict him recapturing his past glory.
Erik Gustafsson – Think Ghost, except only one year removed from his breakout success, but also a year older and with no previous 59 point pace. This is a guy who not only had 60 points in 79 games in 2018-19 but got 53 of those points in his final 58 contests. And then he proceeded to be DOA last season. Now getting a fresh start again in Philly, will he step into the shoes once worn by Ghost and turn into a scoring machine again, or will it be like watching Ghost 2.0?
Tyler Johnson – The diminutive, undrafted Johnson stepped into the fantasy radar with a 50 point rookie season before vaulting to 72 points in just 77 games as a sophomore, earning him comparisons to Martin St. Louis and making many a poolie drool with excitement at what lay ahead for Johnson on the powerhouse Lightning. It turns out what lay ahead were four years of a points pace ranging from 45 to 56 before this past season not even managing a point per every other game. So bad is his situation that the Lightning can't trade him and may be forced to bury him in the minors, all despite him only just having turned 30
Martin Jones – Pop quiz, what goalie's GAA has risen with each season he's been in the league? That would be Jones. For a while, his peripherals were just okay but he racked up wins; yet over the past two seasons, he saw his quality start rate plummet and held onto his starting gig simply because there were no other options. Jones seemed to play his best when spelled by a good back-up though, so perhaps the addition of Dubnyk will lift him to past heights?
Phil Kessel – Conditioning and hot dog jokes aside, this is a player who from 2018-19 had the 14th most points among all forwards, more than the likes of John Tavares, Artemi Panarin, Mitch Marner, David Pastrnak and Jonathan Huberdeau. And he also had two 80+ point seasons back with the Leafs. But when tasked with once again being "the guy" as he'd been on Toronto, except this time with the Coyotes, Kessel laid an egg to the tune of just 38 points in 70 games. The question is did people expect more from an out-of-shape 32-year-old on a team without the likes of Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby to prop him up? Essentially, is this a disappointment or just merely inevitable?
Milan Lucic – Granted, his career-high in points is lower than any other forward on the list by quite a bit. Still, Lucic was for many years a stat-stuffing fantasy force whom GMs could put on their teams and know they'd get across the board stellar stats. Many thought Boston was crazy trading him after a 44 point 2014-15 season that, at the time, was seen as a blip in the radar; but after two more decent campaigns he's turned into such a shell of his former self that Calgary can't even put him on a top-six line to protect its players.
Kyle Okposo – What do you get when you combine a brief fling with fantasy greatness, plus the passage of time? Foligno, as noted above; but also Okposo, who let's not forget had 69 points in 71 games at age 25 in 2013-14 then another season of 64 points two years later. Since then his points have dropped with each season and, at age 32, he's still signed for three more seasons at $6M. Even at that amount though, and despite being on the offensively starved Sabres, Okposo has turned into such a poor player he's barely able to maintain a spot in the lineup.
Joe Pavelski – After quietly seeing his point total drop three seasons in a row on San Jose, albeit only from 78, to 68, to 66, to 64, the wind completely left his sails in 2019-20, as he posted a meager 31 points in 69 games, for his lowest full-season output…..ever! And although like Benn he seemed to come alive in the playoffs, one of the formerly most consistent fantasy stalwarts looks like he no longer has what it takes to produce anywhere near what we'd come to expect.
Jonathan Quick – A two time Cup winner and four-time 35+ win goalie, Quick looked like he was going to be one of those netminders who'd play great even well into his 30s. But after posting 33 wins in 64 games in 2016-17, Quick only managed 32 combined over the next two despite appearing in 88 games. Yes, to some degree the team around him isn't helping matters; but with numbers that would make it tough for him to be a back-up were it not for his contract, the glory days for Quick look to be long gone.
Brent Seabrook – Here to it seems like a lot longer ago than 2015-16 when Seabrook tallied 49 points in 81 games, especially after managing just four points – yes, that's not a typo – in 32 contests during 2019-20. Seabrook has become such a liability that his ice time has dropped for four straight seasons and he's now an albatross on the rebuilding Hawks.
Cory Schneider – After proving that indeed he was a star goalie once he escaped Vancouver, Schneider went from three seasons of 2.25 or less GAA and .921 or greater SV% to a 2.82 GAA and 0.908 SV% in 2016-17. But that was just the start, as remarkably his GAA has continued to rise and SV% to fall with each passing season, earning him a ticket to the minors during each of the past three seasons and a buyout in October, making it so he might have seen the NHL ice for the last time.
Justin Schultz – After igniting a frenzy upon becoming a free agent due to not signing with the team that drafted him, Schultz made a splash with 27 points in 48 games as a rookie, and then proceeded to not score at that pace again until 2016-17, when his total skyrocketed to 51 points in 78 games for the Pens. What he's done since then? The good news is he's scored 53 points; the bad news is it came in three seasons over the course of 138 games. Could he somehow find fantasy fortune with the Caps? Not likely.
Paul Stastny – With his pedigree and 78, 71 and 79 points in three of his first four seasons, many felt that Stastny was on the fast track to stardom. But for poolies who don't remember, those 79 points came a decade ago, with Stastny never topping 60 in any subsequent season, and now has settled into a guy who plays 60-70 games and tallies about 40 points, a far cry from what he was or seemingly could have been.
P.K. Subban – Now 31, it's been only two seasons since Subban posted 59 points with the Preds after many spotlight years with the Habs. His first season with the Devils though was a total disaster, with him managing a mere 18 points in 68 games. And unlike others on this list, he still was getting lots of minutes and chances – he just wasn't producing. Does he have what it takes to be a success yet again, or is that his larger than life persona is now casting a shadow over his eroding skill?
Vincent Trocheck – It seemed Trocheck was following the blueprint to success, with a point total that rose each season with the Panthers, culminating in a 75 point "magical fourth season" with the team, igniting hopes of a one-two punch at center with him and Alexsander Barkov. But in his next two seasons, he battled injuries and saw his production wane, with him now on Carolina in a role which, based on what we saw from him in limited action, might not be anything close to the great deployment he had in Florida. Is he another Tyler Johnson in the making?
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There you have it – 20 players who've all had mighty falls from fantasy grace. Your job is to pick the five who you believe became the biggest disappointments versus expectations, noting the factors I described above. To cast your votes, click here.
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