The 15^th annual Fantasy Hockey Guide is out and ready for download! Draft List too! Updated up to the Derek Stepan trade – and the latest update has the full NHL schedule analysis and how you can use it to get an edge. Plus, Soderberg, Hoffman and more! (More on Mike Hoffman below)

Thank you everyone for your support. It's been a tough year with sales of course being down. As fantasy drafts pick up over the next couple of weeks you know which Guide you should recommend to your buddies!

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Washington has a very good, underrated, prospect goaltender in Vitek Vanecek. I was excited to see that he would become their backup to Ilya Samsonov and honestly wondered if he could sneak in there and make enough of an impression to land a starting gig somewhere in two or three years. But the team went ahead and invited Craig Anderson to training camp. Having a veteran to backup Samsonov is more ideal for the team, which probably means Vanecek is left out in the cold. However, Vanecek has to clear waivers in order to be sent down. This will be an interesting situation to watch play out.

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I feel bad for Dobber Darling Vinnie Hinostroza. After a good stepping-stone season in 2018-19, he was buried under an avalanche of big names with bigger contracts and pedigrees. No surprise he was unable to produce anything while misplaced on the fourth line while the declining Phil Kessel got top billing. The Coyotes didn't qualify him, likely their decision but possibly at his request, so he could become an unrestricted free agent. He signed quickly with the Panthers, which was a brilliant move because Florida recently lost two key top-sixers. A rebound was in the making! The Panthers have since added Anthony Duclair. And while that hurts, it's not backbreaking in terms of his chances. I still think the cream has a chance to rise to the top here, given a couple dozen games. However, the irony in this situation is huge because now it's the Coyotes who are lacking forwards! Funny enough, if Hinostroza had stuck around he would get a shot in the top six. With Derek Stepan and Taylor Hall gone, as well as depth guys Michael Grabner, Brad Richardson and Carl Soderberg, Arizona is looking pretty thin. They only brought in Drake Caggiula, a third-liner, and Johan Larsson, a fourth-liner.

With Stepan being gone, that opens up PP time for Conor Garland, Barrett Hayton and Christian Fischer. At even strength, this shifts Nick Schmaltz to center and bumps up the ice time for both Fischer and Lawson Crouse. You may want to look into grabbing a couple of Arizona prospects, because not only is the team fairly thin up front, but the two guys they signed – Caggiula and Larsson – get injured often.

My guess? Arizona just freed up some room to add Andreas Athanasiou, who to me is worth about $1M on a one-year deal but I can see them overpaying (otherwise why get rid of Stepan?). Or perhaps they're signing two players: one with potential in Athanasiou, and one with 'name' value in Corey Perry. UPDATE: Wrong and Wrong! Los Angeles took 16 hours to make me look bad here by signing AA, though it was for $1.2M about where I had it. And Montreal took about 12 hours to make me look bad by signing Perry.

Is there anyone else you want to see signed? I could just make another wrong guess and hours later they’ll sign somewhere if you’d like?

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Speaking of Stepan in Ottawa, the Senators signed their top prospect, Tim Stuetzle (I will always think of Alex Trebek when I write his name) to his ELC. I had Stuetzle not making the team originally, due to his German team maybe not releasing him. I later changed it to his making the team because, well, the team didn't have much in the way of centermen. And now he has signed the contract just one day after the team acquires Derek Stepan. After careful thought, and seeing what the Sens did with Brady Tkachuk after drafting him, I am keeping Stuetzle on the team. And I gave it a 60% certainty. Yes, another benefit I have in my Fantasy Guide is that I provide a percentage of confidence I have in decisions because it's more than just projecting XX points – in the case of Stuetzle it is XX points or zero points. And that percentage gives you the tools you need to make an informed decision.

Instead, I have Logan Brown not making the team and Josh Norris also getting cut. But in the case of Norris, I think he's in for a quick recall as part of the taxi squad, getting into about two-thirds of NHL game action. For Brown, just a dozen games.

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The toughest division to predict a winner is going to be the East. While I would be surprised if my prediction (in the Fantasy Guide) was completely turned upside down, I wouldn't be knocked out of my chair with shock. I mean, the Devils winning the division is unlikely, but I have six teams projected between 60 and 66 points. A win here or there puts one team in the playoffs and takes one team out. The Sabres are on most predictions as part of the Bottom 3 in the division. But they will probably have Dylan Cozens (who just tallied six points in a game at the WJC), Taylor Hall and Eric Staal. This is a team who many felt underachieved last year. So if last year's team meets those original expectations, plus add a Top 5 rookie, a recent Hart winner and a veteran second-line center, are they going to finish sixth or seventh in their division?

People point to the Rangers' defense and say "this is why they will miss the playoffs again". But that offense is monstrous. And who can say that they wouldn't trade a Tony DeAngelo for a left-shooting, defense-first stud? And… they have a goaltender who I think will win the Calder Trophy as the Rookie-of-the-Year. Igor Shesterkin thrives when he's busy – and he'll be busy. Keep this team out of the playoffs when possibly no team can match the three lines of offense that they boast?

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For the first time in 15 years of fantasy guides, I have picked the Toronto Maple Leafs to win the Stanley Cup. Not so much for the changes that they made in the offseason, although those moves were decent especially the TJ Brodie and Joe Thornton signings. No, the main reason is the playoff format. The Leafs may struggle again versus the stifling Columbus defense. And they may not be able to psychologically get around the Bruins. And Tampa Bay is just a better team, plain and simple. But this year they won't play any of those teams in the first two rounds. And I like the way they match up against the other Canadian squads. Like it or not, this is the best chance they have of getting through those first two rounds that we've seen in years. And facing Boston in the semi-finals with just eight wins needed to take the Cup is a lot different than facing the Bruins in the first round yet again. If this team gets that far, then they're not going to bow out easily after that. The playoff format is the reason I take Toronto.

I was a little afraid of being called a 'homer'. But then I decided to not choose them would be showing a bias. I can't not take a team because I live in the area (not in Toronto, but just outside of it). I have to look at it logically, and see how best it plays out. You have to admit – the playoff format really favors this team.

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In a weird, unexpected move, Mike Hoffman has signed a tryout contract with the St. Louis Blues. Currently the top unrestricted free agent still available, and he was in everyone's Top 5 all along, Hoffman was looking at a multi-year $6.5+M AAV contract in a 'normal' year. This year, he still may get $5.5M. And rather than agree to less, he is making this move. He is still free to sign a contract anywhere, but he is waiting for St. Louis to tell him how much they can offer him after they sign Vince Dunn. The delay would also allow them to put Vladimir Tarasenko and Alex Steen on LTIR. Here is Cap Friendly with more:

We currently show the Blues at $1,175,515 above the cap, with a roster of 21 players. None of the players that we currently have on the roster are waiver exempt.

The club must also sign RFA defenceman Vince Dunn.

What are their options? https://t.co/6TGEhGWz0g

— CapFriendly (@CapFriendly) December 28, 2020

2- Sign Dunn and build a 23-man roster as close to $87.25M as possible, then place Steen on LTIR on the last day of training camp to cover the amount they are above $81.5M

They could then place Tarasenko on LTIR on the first day of the season giving them $7.5M to sign Hoffman.

— CapFriendly (@CapFriendly) December 28, 2020

Hoffman made a mistake in not signing on Day 1 when there was money. But he is making up for most of that mistake with this move, and literally leaving it to the very last minute.

For the sake of the Fantasy Guide, I am leaving Hoffman as a UFA in the Draft List, but in the Fantasy Guide add him to the St. Louis chart. This knocks Zach Sanford out of the top six, and Mackenzie MacEachern out of the lineup. It also impacts how often Klim Kostin and Jordan Kyrou get into the lineup. I also think this knocks Jaden Schwartz down to the second PP unit – thereby upgrading that unit by a lot.

As for Hoffman's production in St. Louis – he won't be playing with any elite players, but he'll still be playing with very good players. Hoffman will produce the same as always, which is at around a 60- or 65-point pace.

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And now back to Ottawa for late-breaking news. This one is strictly paperwork, though the Sens do acquire depth and a great draft pick. They landed Braydon Coburn and Cedric Paquette 'and' a second-round draft pick from Tampa Bay! In exchange, Tampa gets Anders Nilsson and Marian Gaborik – they promptly announced that Nilsson and Gaborik will go on LTIR, thus getting them cap compliant and ready to go. The Sens add yet another body up front, scuttling Logan Brown's and Josh Norris' chances of making the team. I'll have all this updated in the Fantasy Guide, possibly by the time you read this.

Great move for the Sens though, as they can trade Stepan, Paquette and Coburn at the trade deadline for draft picks. Meaning, without really moving their cap they just added three or four draft picks. I think in 2021-22 this team will be ready to get back into it.

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See you next Monday.