Top 10 Players Who Will Disappoint in 2021

Tom Collins

2020-12-28

With NHL training camps are set to open this week, fantasy general managers are rushing to get their leagues underway.

I know plenty of people who haven't concentrated on hockey over the past eight months, so many are playing catch up. Part of the prep will be trying to remember each player's value after a turbulent offseason.

There are several players whose values are overrated, and you would be wise to steer clear of them. Think of last offseason, when players such as Matt Duchene, Kaapo Kakko, Jeff Skinner and Max Domi were valued highly, only to disappoint once the puck dropped.

Below are 10 players who will disappoint in 2021. Remember, this is not a list of players who will suck, but instead a list of players who won't live up to expectations. Keep in mind that some of these players are still valuable in keeper leagues, so I'm not recommending you trade all of these players unless you get an offer you can't refuse.

10. Dominik Kubalik

Everyone remembers Kubalik's excellent rookie season as he potted 30 goals in 68 games, thanks to a crazy scoring streak when he put up 15 goals in 21 games. He followed that up with two goals and five points in his first postseason game. For the rest of the postseason, he had two goals and three points in eight games. The Hawks are going to be a hot mess this year, and it wouldn't be surprising to see a second-year player struggle, especially one who might be as streaky as Kubalik.

9. Robert Thomas

I've seen a lot of love for Thomas this offseason, but you have to quell those expectations with the news on Sunday that the Blues have signed Mike Hoffman to a PTO. In past years, PTOs were given so teams would have enough veteran players to dress for exhibition games. However, with no exhibition contests this year, teams should only be handing out PTOs to players that have a shot of making the team. If rumours are correct and the Blues are waiting for the start of the season to put players on LTIR before officially signing Hoffman, that takes away a potential top-six spot from the 21-year-old Thomas.

8. Taylor Hall

I think Hall will do well in Buffalo, but this list all comes down to expectations. If you believe Hall is going to dominate like he did when he won the Hart trophy and finish with 68 points in 56 games this year, then you might need to re-evaluate that thinking. Anything more than a point-per-game may be asking too much of Hall, who struggled last year with New Jersey and Arizona. Sure, Hall will line up with Jack Eichel, but we've seen superstar pairings not work out before. What happens if Hall and Eichel have zero chemistry and Hall gets demoted to the second line?

7. Aleksander Barkov

This one was mentioned by Michael Clifford in the Dobber Fantasy Guide (available for purchase here, and already updated with the Mike Hoffman news), but it makes a lot of sense. The Panthers have overhauled their top power-play unit and their top-six. Barkov's top linemates last year were Jonathan Huberdeau, Evgenii Dadonov and Hoffman. Hoffman is in St. Louis and Dadonov is in Ottawa. That's 54 goals that need to be replaced. All of a sudden, the Panthers are hoping Anthony Duclair, Patrik Hornqvist or even a rookie such as Owen Tippett can fill in on that line. Weaker linemates should equal less production for Barkov.

6. Mika Zibanejad

After years of scoring about 0.65 points per game, Zibanejad broke through two years ago with 0.90 points per game, which jumped last year to 1.32. All of a sudden, he's on a 108-point pace instead of 50. He's also scoring on 19.7 per cent of his shots, up from around the 12 per cent he normally gets. If he scored at his normal shooting percentage last year, he scores 25 goals instead of 41. In the end, what's more likely: That he's a late bloomer and he continues this absurd run? Or that he comes back to reality and gets back to less than a point-per-game? My money would be on the latter. Don't forget he usually misses a few games a year to injury.

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5. Frederik Andersen

Andersen's peripheral stats haven't been that great the last few years (a high GAA with few shutouts and usually less than 60 per cent quality starts). However, that is offset by a large number of starts behind an offensive team that can win games 5-4. This year, Toronto has 10 back-to-back sets of games, which is tied for fourth highest. This is the year that backups will get a lot of starts, especially since Eastern Canadian teams will have to travel to the west coast more often. A smaller percentage of starts will bring down his win total.

4. Kirill Kaprizov

I mention this all the time, but don't overreach for rookies in one-year drafts. You're better off taking proven veterans over rookies the majority of the time. Kaprizov is expected to slot in on the top line alongside Kevin Fiala, but the word out of Minnesota already is that the coaching staff may split those two up to balance the lines. If that happens, and Kaprizov is playing alongside Marcus Johansson and Zach Parise instead of Fiala, expectations should be tempered.

3. Nick Suzuki

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about players who will reach 0.85 points-per-game for the first time in their career. One Twitter user commented that I forgot Suzuki, and he believes that Suzuki will outperform the majority of the players on the list. Many others believe Suzuki is due for a massive breakout after a hot postseason. Don't forget that Suzuki struggled late in the season last year with one point in his last nine games, that Philip Danault is the team's number one centre and that the Habs go with two power-play units instead of one, making it more difficult for any Habs player to inflate their point totals with power-play points.

2. Erik Gustafsson

I don't believe that Gustafsson will automatically assume the top power-play role in Philadelphia for an entire season. There are too many players in Philly that can slide into that role. Unless Gustafsson can produce immediately and consistently, it's too easy for the coaching staff to switch to Ivan Provorov or Shayne Gostisbehere. Then there's also the issue that Gustafsson couldn't produce in that top role last year in the regular season with either Chicago or Calgary, or in the postseason (he had one power-play point in 10 postseason games despite being on the top unit). He's also not signed long-term or for much money, so he doesn't have the golden boy status needed to keep him in that plum spot.

1. Patrice Bergeron

Bergeron has been a consistent 0.9 points-per-game player over the last three years, but he's going to struggle this year. The Bruins are going through a lot of changes, especially on the power play with Torey Krug in St. Louis and no decision yet on who is going to take that spot. With no exhibition games, it's going to be trial by fire. Throw in the fact that Brad Marchand may not start the season due to injury, and that David Pastrnak is out until at least mid-February, and Bergeron may be stuck playing alongside Jake DeBrusk and Ondrej Kase for a few games. Bergeron also can't stay healthy for a full season, so if you expect him to play the full 56 games, expect even more disappointment.

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