Scott Cullen: Using Shot Metrics to Spot Player Up/Down Trends

Dobber Sports

2021-01-01

By Scott Cullen, special for DobberHockey – It is easy enough to look at past scoring rates for players and that can provide a reasonable idea about what a player might be able to produce in the future. But there is more information available to dig a little deeper and one of the ways to do that is to look at changes in shot and expected goal rates to see whether a player has been creating more or fewer opportunities and whether or not they are trending in the right direction.

Sometimes that manifests itself in goals and points but not always so those underlying numbers can provide deeper evidence of a player's results, evidence that may not always be reflected in goal or point totals for a single season. This is the foundation for using shots as a source for hockey analysis: they provide a larger sample of data which can lead to more sound analysis.

https://www.dobbersports.com

Let's take a look at some of the players whose shot rates changed last season. Some of those with the biggest increases compared to 2018-2019 were Nathan MacKinnon, Mika Zibanejad, Max Pacioretty, and Jakub Vrana; their improved production was obvious.

Some of these players may be a little less obvious but this underlying information could help your draft day decisions this year.

TRENDING UP

Oliver Bjorkstrand, RW, Columbus

While Bjorkstrand obviously improved his own production, scoring as many points in 49 games as he did in 77 games the season before, the on-ice metrics all improved significantly so Bjorkstrand and his linemates (Gustav Nyquist and Pierre-Luc Dubois were most common, Nick Foligno and Boone Jenner next) generated notably more shot attempts, shots, and expected goals per 60 than Bjorkstrand had the season before when Alexander Wennberg was his most common linemate. Opportunity matters. Hey, speaking of opportunity…

Kailer Yamamoto, RW, Edmonton

In his two previous seasons, Yamamoto produced just five points in 26 games and his 2018-2019 performance was awful: two points and 13 shots on goal in 17 games. But last season, after getting called up from the AHL, he skated primarily with Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and scored nearly a point per game as his shot attempt, shot, and expected goal rates all jumped by more than 50% from the previous season. Turns out that playing with the league's leading scorer can offer some benefits.

Kevin Labanc, RW, San Jose

On the surface, Labanc obviously had a poor season in 2019-2020. His point total plummeted from 56 points in 2018-2019 to 33 points last season. However, he generated shots, scoring chances, and expected goals at a higher rate than he did in 2018-2019. His most common linemate the past two seasons was Joe Thornton, so that won't continue in 2021 but there might be some value to be found in Labanc this year if he merely has percentages swing more favorably in his direction.

Chandler Stephenson, C, Vegas

Stephenson's hockey world changed upon his arrival in Vegas last season. After two-plus seasons of work in a checking role with the Washington Capitals, Stephenson found himself skating between Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone; good work if you can get it. Everything went up for Stephenson across the board. He ended up with 22 points in 41 games for Vegas, 18 of which came at even strength. Though last season's 26 points counts as a modest career high, Stephenson has some deep sleeper potential for 2021, especially if Cody Glass isn't ready to handle a significant scoring role.

Christian Dvorak, C, Arizona

Following up an injury-shortened 2018-2019 season, the Coyotes pivot was more dangerous last season, in part because the Coyotes don't have a lot of competition down the middle of the ice (and less now that Derek Stepan has been traded to Ottawa). As a result, Dvorak skated with Arizona's playmaking wingers, including Taylor Hall and Phil Kessel who, along with Conor Garland and Nick Schmaltz, were the forwards that spent the most time skating on Dvorak's line. Arizona may not be a great place to produce offense but Dvorak should get quality opportunities given the lack of scoring centre depth on the roster.

Sometimes, even if the individual doesn't generate higher shot rates they still landed in a better situation and their 5-on-5 on-ice rates improved.

Jake Virtanen, RW, Vancouver

Shotgun Jake did have a career-high 18 goals and 36 points last season and he shuffled around the Canucks lineup, with much better results when he was fortunate enough to skate with Elias Pettersson or, more frequently, Bo Horvat at centre. It would seem likely that Virtanen is going to see more time in the Canucks' top six this season so he may be able to build last season's offensive progress.

Ryan Strome, C, N.Y. Rangers

It's not a secret that Strome's production last season was powered by Artemi Panarin, the Hart Trophy finalist skating on his left wing, but Strome's career-high 59 points included 41 points at even strength and it was supported by dramatically improved underlying numbers. The point isn't so much that Ryan Strome's improvement was real last season. It's more that that the legitimately improved production was heavily dependent on Panarin so beware any kind of line shuffling that could occur in New York if it is going to affect Strome.

Those are players that saw improved underlying numbers last season. Some of them had improved scoring rates, too, but there were also players whose shot metrics weren't so kind last season compared to previous years.

TRENDING DOWN

Brayden Schenn, C, St. Louis

📢 advertisement:

The Blues’ pivot scored 58 points in 71 games after producing 54 points in 72 games the season before. His 0.82 points per game was the second best of his career and yet his shot attempts, shots, and expected goals were all way down. The difference was that Schenn scored on a career-high 18.1% of his shots and that covered over his own declining shot rates as well as the declining rates of his linemates last season. Maybe he bounces back this season but a player with high percentages and poor underlying numbers is usually one to avoid.

Ryan O'Reilly, C, St. Louis

A double shot from St. Louis. The new Blues captain had 61 points in 71 games last season, the seventh straight season in which he produced at least 55 points. But a career-high on-ice shooting percentage of 10.6% masked the fact that O'Reilly's shot and expected goal rates cratered – his shot and shot-attempts-per-60 rates were easily the worst of his career.   

Some of that decline may be due to Vladimir Tarasenko missing most of the season but Tarasenko is also likely to miss most of the 2021 season, too, so the Blues signing Mike Hoffman to a PTO makes a lot of sense. It seemed to fly under the radar last season but St. Louis needs more dynamic scoring wingers to help their men in the middle.

Erik Karlsson, D, San Jose

Injuries have slowed down the Sharks blueliner and the numbers showed that last season. His rate of shot attempts was the lowest of his career, while his shot and expected goal rates were his lowest since his rookie season of 2009-2010, a decade before. Not only were Karlsson's individual numbers down but his on-ice results were lacking, too. When he was on the ice in 2018-2019, the Sharks generated 70.6 shot attempts per 60 minutes. Last season, they generated 57.1 shot attempts per 60 minutes, just a decline of 23.6% year over year. If the Sharks are going to have any hope of being competitive this season, they will need Karlsson to return to form.

Evander Kane, LW, San Jose

One of the defining features of Kane throughout his career has been his ability to generate shots. They haven't always been high quality shots so his goal rates haven't necessarily matched his elite shot generation and, last season, the shot rates dropped off. Kane's rates of shots and shot attempts per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play were his lowest since his rookie season in 2009-2010. Kane has rarely been a high percentage finisher so scoring on 12.0% of his shots last season led to 26 goals in 64 games, his 0.41 goals per game was the highest of his career, but if Kane's shot rates are falling that should warrant some concern about his production moving forward.

Ryan Johansen, C, Nashville

Viktor Arvidsson, RW, Nashville

Consider this pair a Predators’ special. Arvidsson's individual shot rates were the lowest of his career. His on-ice results were his worst since his rookie season in 2015-2016. Johansen has practically given up on shooting since he arrived in Nashville, but his on-ice shot results were his worst since his first year with the Predators, also 2015-2016. They have had success on Nashville's top line in the past but, in relative terms, 2019-2020 was forgettable for both.

Kasperi Kapanen, RW, Pittsburgh

When he played his first full season for the Maple Leafs in 2018-2019, Kapanen showed some promise, generating shots and scoring chances, producing 20 goals and 44 points. Last season, there was a drop in both his own shots and expected goals as well as the Maple Leafs' shots and expected goals when he was on the ice. Perhaps a spot on Sidney Crosby's wing will change Kapanen's outlook in 2021 but if Kapanen doesn't stay in that spot, his offensive upside would be limited.

Marcus Johansson, C, Minnesota

In Buffalo last season, Johansson's individual shot and expected goal rates were close enough to his previous performance but the on-ice numbers dropped significantly. His most common linemates were Jeff Skinner and Jimmy Vesey (followed by Conor Sheary, Vladimir Sobotka, and Michael Frolik) so the hope for the Wild is that Johansson can generate better results with more skilled linemates since he is expected to start the season between highly regarded rookie Kirill Kaprizov and Kevin Fiala on the top line.

There is a similar case for both Kapanen and Johansson. They are coming off seasons in which they did not produce as much as hoped offensively but they are now going to have a chance to play in a more offensive role with their new teams. That might make them worth a shot.

Scott Cullen is a contributor for The Athletic, a former fantasy columnist for TSN.ca and these days can be heard on Locked on Fantasy Hockey podcast. Follow him on Twitter @ByScottCullen

Pick up the 15th annual DobberHockey Fantasy Guide – updated through to today’s events. Line combos and injury notes also updated. Don’t fall behind, find out what the fuss is about. Pick it up now!

Leave A Comment

UPCOMING GAMES

Mar 18 - 20:03 CGY vs WSH
Mar 18 - 22:03 SEA vs BUF

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
DANIIL MIROMANOV CGY
ALEXANDER NYLANDER CBJ
EVGENY KUZNETSOV CAR
ANTHONY DUCLAIR T.B
WYATT JOHNSTON DAL

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
DEVIN COOLEY S.J
JAKE ALLEN N.J
LOGAN THOMPSON VGK
CHARLIE LINDGREN WSH
DUSTIN WOLF CGY

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency FLA Players
15.1 CARTER VERHAEGHE SAM REINHART ALEKSANDER BARKOV
11.8 VLADIMIR TARASENKO EETU LUOSTARINEN ANTON LUNDELL
10.6 MATTHEW TKACHUK EVAN RODRIGUES SAM BENNETT

DobberHockey Podcasts

FIND US ON FACEBOOK

📢 advertisement: