Scott Cullen: Using Shot Metrics to Spot Player Up/Down Trends
By Scott Cullen, special for DobberHockey – It is easy enough to look at past scoring rates for players and that can provide a reasonable idea about what a player might be able to produce in the future. But there is more information available to dig a little deeper and one of the ways to do that is to look at changes in shot and expected goal rates to see whether a player has been creating more or fewer opportunities and whether or not they are trending in the right direction.
Sometimes that manifests itself in goals and points but not always so those underlying numbers can provide deeper evidence of a player's results, evidence that may not always be reflected in goal or point totals for a single season. This is the foundation for using shots as a source for hockey analysis: they provide a larger sample of data which can lead to more sound analysis.