Dobber’s offseason fantasy hockey grades – Colorado Avalanche

For the last 17 years (12 with The Hockey News) Dobber has reviewed each team from a fantasy-hockey standpoint and graded them.

The 18th annual review will appear here on DobberHockey throughout the ~~summer~~…er, winter. This is not a review of the likely performance on the ice or in the standings, but in the realm of fantasy hockey both for the season ahead as well as the foreseeable future. Offensively, will the team perform? Are there plenty of depth options worthy of owning in keeper leagues? What about over the next two or three years? These questions are what I take into consideration when looking at the depth chart and the player potential on that depth chart.

Enjoy!

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Gone – Michael Hutchinson, Matt Nieto, A.J. Greer, Vladislav Namestnikov, Nikita Zadorov, Mark Barberio, Kevin Connauton, Colin Wilson

Incoming – Devon Toews, Dennis Gilbert, Brandon Saad, Miikka Salomaki

Impact of changes – An already-great team just upgraded big time. Devon Toews is a top-pairing defenseman (or maybe a No.3), and Brandon Saad is a real solid second/third-line tweener who can snipe 20 or 25 goals from the wing. Both players are in or just entering the prime of their careers. Saad gives the team real nice depth up front, giving them some pop on the third line. Toews saw the most PP time with the Islanders, but he'll have to play second fiddle to Cale Makar on the Avalanche. He'll take some PP time from Samuel Girard, and a lot of it from Erik Johnson. His arrival will also take power-play time from rookie Conor Timmins, and likely makes Bowen Byram wait a year before making the jump. Dennis Gilbert is a potential PIM and Hits guy, and he has a shot at becoming the No.7 defenseman. But that would be at the expense of Timmins and Byram.

Ready for full-time – Logan O'Connor was a good two-way player in college, never drafted, and the Avs signed him as a free agent after just his sophomore season. He took to the AHL immediately, posting about two points for every three games he played as a rookie. Last season he earned a call-up late in the year and made it tough to be sent back down, even getting into a few playoff games. The Saad acquisition will make it difficult for him to stick for the entire season but he should get into a couple dozen games. For fantasy purposes, he is a decent option for Hits if he can get enough ice time to dish them.

Adam Werner is a very solid goaltending prospect and he has the advantage of being behind two guys in Pavel Francouz and Philipp Grubauer who get hurt often. I think we'll see him on a couple of occasions, and he makes a nice dark horse keeper pick if he ever comes in to cover off injuries and establishes himself.

Conor Timmins missed the entire 2019-20 season due to concussion symptoms. Prior to that, it was expected that he was close to NHL-readiness. At the time, he was a top two or three prospect in Colorado's system. After missing a year, he made a solid return in the AHL, staying healthy and picking up 27 points in 40 games. He'll probably see half the season in the AHL, half in the NHL.

Bowen Byram was Colorado's 2019 draft pick (from Ottawa – fourth overall). He was probably going to make the team this season, but adding Toews probably put the kibosh on that. Still, I have him sticking for a six-game trial run before being sent back to junior, which will hopefully start up in February.

Colorado Avalanche prospect depth chart and fantasy upsides can be found here

Fantasy Outlook – Colorado was the fourth-highest scoring team in the league last season and they only improved their offense. If the key guys can stay healthy, both Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen will post well over a point-per-game (though with Rantanen, "healthy" is a tall order). Cale Makar showed indications last season that he is and will be the highest-scoring defenseman in the NHL capable of putting up a point-per-game average. He was derailed by a pair of injuries last year though, so let's hope that was just a blip and not a trend. Gabriel Landeskog has shown that he can be a 70-point player (or 56-game equivalent) when placed on that MacKinnon-Rantanen line, too. Andre Burakovsky broke out last season and, although he also has trouble staying healthy, if he can play the full year he will flirt with 35 or even 40 points. Nazem Kadri seems to be a 60-point player in a Colorado jersey, and I liked the way Valeri Nichushkin tallied 26 points in his last 49 games.

On the point, besides Toews and Makar, Girard has been improving his production bit by bit and should now be a 40-point player (which is about 27 points by this year's standards). The goaltending can be great at times, spotty at others, but it's a pretty good tandem (Grubauer-Francouz) with a pair of great prospect goalies on the way in Werner and Justus Annunen. Speaking of prospects, forward Alex Newhook is one of the best fantasy prospects out there, and the fact that there is a big dropoff after him isn't as big a deal with this team because the main roster is still young and rising.

Fantasy Grade: A (last year was B+)

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2020 Offseason Fantasy Hockey Grades

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 27 - 19:12	DET	vs	TOR
Dec 27 - 19:12	BUF	vs	CHI
Dec 27 - 19:12	CBJ	vs	BOS
Dec 27 - 19:12	N.J	vs	CAR
Dec 27 - 20:12	DAL	vs	MIN
Dec 27 - 20:12	STL	vs	NSH
Dec 27 - 21:12	UTA	vs	COL
Dec 27 - 22:12	S.J	vs	VGK