Ramblings: Dahlin’s Breakout, Mining the Wire, Trading Hellebuyck, Cozens & Schmidt (Jan 6)

Cam Robinson

2021-01-05

Things are certainly cooking now. We're a couple of days into all 31 teams' training camps. Everyone and their dog is either in the best shape of their life or stuck in some sort of quarantine purgatory. Either way, it’s exciting for all involved. Okay, maybe not for the guys stuck in their hotel room, but for the rest of us it sure is! 

We're sure to see storylines galore as the camps move forward and intrasquad games fire up. Players will be cut. Others will make the team's taxi squad in hopes of eeking out some NHL action when the bandaids begin to pile up and the IR fills up.

This leads me to my first point: Depth.

NHL teams will be bringing along expanded rosters and the aforementioned taxi squads because of quarantine rules but also because of the intimidating prospect of a condensed schedule. There will be injuries. A lot of them. As a fantasy manager, this year more than ever will demand your focus on depth players if your roster allows for it. Targeting second-line wingers who could step into a bigger role. Sheltered offensive defenders without a clear role. Goaltenders of all shapes and sizes as the tandem mode will be heavily used.

The next crucial step will be: Quickness

Having your finger on the pulse of all the movement this year will allow you to be decisive and fast-acting on the waiver wire. As I said, the injuries will pile up and oft-overlooked players will suddenly have a prominent offensive role – even if for just a week or two. This is where you can make hay. Ensure you have a roster spot or three dedicated to quick turnover and work that wire like it's the gift-giving siren that she is.



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Okay, so I just want to quickly remind everyone that it is Rasmus Dahlin breakout season. In my mind, the 20-year-old is ready to absolutely POP.

Sure, he produced the most points as an 18-year-old defenseman since Phil Housely nearly 40 years earlier. And sure, he played a 56-point pace as a 19-year-old last season – something we haven't seen since… well since Phil Housey went off as a 19-year-old.

Yet, Dahlin remains something of an overlooked fantasy asset in the shadow of Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes and even Miro Heiskanen. This is predominately due to two things:

          1. Buffalo has sucked. There's no sugar coating it, the Sabres have been dreadful in Dahlin's two seasons. Outside of    Jack Eichel and an aberration of Jeff Skinner being a star the offensive talent to work with has been wanting.

         2. The coaching staff have yet to fully take the reigns off of the 2018 first-overall selection. While his power-play deployment ramped up an additional 30 seconds between his rookie and sophomore seasons, his even-strength ice dropped by nearly 2:30.

However, there are signs of change coming. Firstly, the Sabres are appearing to be in finally-no-long-rebuilding mode. They signed a former Hart Trophy winner in Taylor Hall. They added Eric Staal to bring veteran leadership and poise down the middle. They have Dylan Cozens coming and looking ready to be a big piece moving forward.

On the deployment side of things, by the final stretch of contests in the shortened 2019-20 season, Dahlin was skating nearly 22 minutes a night. Coach, Ralph Krueger was allowing his thoroughbred to run free. 

Dahlin saw the 18th most power-play ice for defenseman last season. His 20 PPPs sat ninth overall. His value on a top unit with Eichel and Hall will be even more impactful in 2021. He could conceivably be one of the top PP point-getters from the blueline this season. Additionally, his even-strength production should see an uptick as well. We can expect an additional 120-180 seconds at 5v5 per game. Over a 56-game schedule, that equates to an extra 112 to 168 minutes. Even holding steady at his 2.1 points-per-60 from a season ago, that's an additional 4-5.5 points.

If you're familiar with my writing or shouting into the Twitter abyss, you'll know that I'm extremely high on Dahlin. For my money, he has the purest talent of any young defender. His upside is supreme. He just needs the horses around him to hit the high notes that Makar and Hughes are flirting with.

Call it a 62-to-65-point pace in 2021 with the steps growing thereafter.

 

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Speaking of Dylan Cozens, how good has he been for Canada at the WJC? This kid is big, fast and skilled as hell. He’s ready to play a top-nine role in the NHL yesterday. His ascension up the lineup will be pivotal to the Sabres climbing the Eastern Conference standings moving forward.

 

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Uh oh, world. It looks like Quinton Byfield is adding snarl to his game. That’s going to be trouble.

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Who are you taking?

 

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I had a follower ask me about my feelings on trading Connor Hellebuyck and it got me thinking about dealing players at their peak value. In the case of Hellebuyck, the 27-year-old is coming off of the Vezina win and covering up for all the holds on the Jets blueline. However, when considering his career to date, he’s a one-on, one-off type of guy.

Save Percentage Year Over Year

2015-16: 0.918

2016-17: 0.907

2017-18: 0.924

2018-19: 0.913

2019-20: 0.922

 

Some of this can be attributed to him being a young starter finding his way. Now he’s in his prime and the expectation should be that his numbers remain steady. But I’m also very concerned with the amount of rubber he’ll be seeing behind that defense core in Winnipeg. 

If you can pull a top-10 skater for him and can absorb the loss in net, I’m making that deal.

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Speaking of point projections, I released my annual document last weekend. It's bursting at the seams with over 260 skater projections. As always, half of the proceeds will be donated. This year, I'm sending some love to the Environmental Defense Fund – a non-profit that uses bold solutions to build a cleaner, healthier world, where people and nature live in balance. 

Check it out here

 

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Here’s something interesting: Last season, Nate Schmidt was the 4th most effective power-play producer by defensemen on a per-60 PPTOI basis (6.8). He trailed Neal Pionk (7.2), Torey Krug (7.1) and John Klingberg (6.9). 

Not bad company to keep.

Now, as you may have guessed, the newest Canucks' blueliner saw significantly fewer minutes on the man-advantage as those around him on the list. But this does indicate that Schmidt could represent an upgrade on the second power-play unit with his new squad. Something that Vancouver needs as Alex Edler inches closer to retirement.

Additionally, his even-strength production – which historically has been very strong, has the potential for further growth. The belief around the industry is that Travis Hamonic will sign with the club once Micheal Ferland's cap hit lands on LTIR at the beginning of the season.

 

Many believe that Hamonic will slide right into Chris Tanev's departed spot next to Quinn Hughes. They play a similar style on the right side. I think we'll see that combo dished out. But I think we eventually see Schmidt land in that spot. Sure, he's a lefty. But he's very comfortable on the right side – playing there almost exclusively the last two seasons.

He's also the team's second-best defender. It creates a dynamic offensive top pairing but also one who can play strong defense.

 

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Pavel Datsyuk’s backhand remains ridiculous even at the age of 42. Here’s his opening tally from Tuesday.

And here’s his shootout winner

The Magic Man remains magical.

 

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@Hockey_Robinson

 

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