Laidlaw: Over/unders and betting player point projections

steve laidlaw

2021-01-05

I love NHL player point total props. As a fantasy hockey prognosticator and someone who annually produces his own point projections (available for free), there is no other future bet that I have greater confidence in than player point totals. It's an excellent test of my projections and is added bit of fun to track and root for as the season goes along.

***Disclaimer before we dive in***

Bet within your means and bet for fun. I cannot stress this enough. I have this immense fear of having losses spiral out of control and I would hate for something that I write or discuss on my podcast to contribute to this happening to someone.

My usual betting site, Bodog, has been growing stingier on their player props over the years, waiting until the last minute to post them, if even posting them at all. It creates a thin window, to take advantage of. Fear not, I've found a new source for over/under props: Coolbet.

Coolbet is offering 50 player point total props for the season ahead, and I am going to break down every single one of them here.

Another word of caution: Coolbet is mitigating some of their risk on these bets by increasing the vig. Each of these props comes in at a price of -118, whether you bet the over or the under. For the uninitiated that means laying $118 to win $100. That's a lot of vig. Bodog, for instance will frequently open their lines at -110 and then adjust based on where the market goes.

In a typical year, I'll have extreme confidence in about 12 of these props and win roughly two thirds of those. Because of the added vig, I have to be extra confident about this year's bets.

*If you'd prefer to use Dobber's rankings, make sure to pick up his 2021 Fantasy Hockey Guide*

Okay, here are the available props, broken into three sections Stay Away, Not Quite Right and Lock It In:

 

Stay Away

This group of totals weren't even close to having me consider placing a bet.

Evgeni Malkin – Over/Under 57.5 Points

My Projection: 57 Points

I should mention that I have Malkin hitting 57 points in just 47 games, so if you want to bet on good health, there's a case for the over. Conversely, if you want to bet on worse health you could bet the under. Malkin's explosiveness, but propensity for injury makes him all kinds of volatile. Stay away.

 

Alex Ovechkin – Over/Under 52.5 Points

My projection: 52 Points

Ovechkin is the greatest goal scorer we have ever seen, but there is another component to his point total and that is assists. Ovechkin has lived in and around the point-per-game mark for the last decade and should remain there, but there's not nearly enough margin for error if no one else on an aging Capitals squad is finishing.

The thing you like about this bet is that the Russian Machine never breaks. Ovechkin simply does not miss many games so you can be confident that yo