Looking Ahead: January 13-25

Adam Daly-Frey

2021-01-08

All fantasy owners need help in the short term AND the long term. The Looking Ahead feature identifies one player to plug into lineups in the short term, a second to invest in for the long term, a third to bench for the coming week, and a fourth who will struggle to meet expectations for some time. All players discussed are selected based on their upcoming schedule.

 

Because this is the first article of the season and games haven't been played yet, all stats are from 2019-20.

 

The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)

Joe Thornton, C, Toronto Maple Leafs (Available in 80 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Although Jumbo Joe may have been born in the 1970s – five decades ago! – and only put up 31 points last season in 70 games, Thornton has been assigned the cushiest spot on the Maple Leafs, riding shotgun on the top line with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner.

Thornton's point production last year looks bad on paper, but he still put up 1.48pts/60 at 5v5 which was better than both 2016-17 and 2017-18 and it speaks more to his diminished role in San Jose than any real drop-off in his play. His power-play production dropped off last season (3.32pt/60 vs. 6+ the previous two seasons) but that was more a function of the Sharks' PP setup, with Thornton getting a point on less than 50% of the Sharks' PP goals. With his cushy role, the Leafs' great opening schedule (see below) and his low ownership, he could be picked up for quick production to open the year before getting dumped.

 

The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)

Robert Thomas, C/W, St. Louis Blues (Available in 84 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – The Blues are deep on the wing – especially after grabbing Mike Hoffman – which means no matter which line Thomas slots into, he'll have scoring help on either side of him. To start the season, Thomas is looking at a second-line role alongside Jaden Schwartz and Hoffman, which means the sky's the limit in terms of scoring; the Blues love to match up Ryan O'Reilly against opposition's top lines, which means the second line gets much better scoring opportunities.

Averaging just 14:34 last season, Thomas put up a strong 42 points in 66 games (2.62pts/60) on 11.4% shooting, which is what right around what he shot in his rookie season so it doesn't seem out of the norm. Assuming a tick up of two minutes/game, Thomas should at minimum see another 40-point season this year (in ten fewer games) but playing with much better players than Tyler Bozak means there's really no cap on his potential. Thomas is still on the second power play unit which is the only issue, but he should be picked up immediately if he's available.

 

The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)

Kyle Palmieri, W, New Jersey Devils (Owned in 76 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – After leading the Devils in points last year – with all of 45! – Palmieri is the most sought-after Devil in fantasy leagues this season, which is fine in leagues that track peripherals (blocks/hits/PIM) but shouldn't be counted on for much production this season as a whole, and even less so over the first few weeks of the season.

The Devils have an atrocious schedule to start the year (see below) and are still missing Jesper Bratt and possibly Nico Hischier. That means Palmieri will most likely be playing on the Devils' top line with Nikita Gusev and Jack Hughes; while both players have a lot of potential in their careers, they put up 44 and 21 points last season respectively, with both playing protected minutes against poor competition. As the Devils' "top line" to open the season, they'll get tough matchups on the road – expect Travis Zajac to remain the shutdown option at home – so outside of the power play, Palmieri's upside is heavily capped. Palmieri is a fine season-long option in deeper leagues, but he should be benched in weekly h2hs until February.

 

The Anchors (They'll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)

Charlie McAvoy, D, Boston Bruins (Owned in 89 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – McAvoy has put up some decent numbers over his first three season, with 92 points (19G-73A) in his first 184 games, but he's getting drafted and is owned as if he'll be the direct Torey Krug replacement which just isn't the case. Last season when Krug was injured, it was Matt Grzelcyk who took the minutes on Boston's top power play unit, because the Bruins want a left-handed d-man in that spot.

McAvoy did play a decent amount last year (23:10/game) which kept him fantasy-relevant, but losing his partner Zdeno Chara means he may see a reduction in ice time; the Bruins' left-sided defense are all young and unproven, so the most likely scenario is that the pair of Grzelcyk and Brandon Carlo see additional minutes while McAvoy either stays the same or even drops slightly. McAvoy is a fine player to own with a bench spot, but he definitely shouldn't be targeted in drafts as anything outside of a flyer and the better Bruins' option of Grzelcyk is only 19 percent owned on Yahoo.

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Love 'Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)

Toronto – The Maple Leafs will most likely make a lot of appearances here this season thanks to playing in the all-Canadian division against some very weak opponents, and they'll kick off the NHL season with seven total games during this period (Jan. 13 to 25) which is the maximum possible. In those seven games they'll play the Oilers twice, the Senators twice, and single games against the Habs, Jets and Flames – and all with only one back-to-back. Betting on the team with the second-most goals scored last season is a good bet to make.

Edmonton – Somehow the Oilers are the only other team to play seven games during this period, but unlike the Maple Leafs, they face tougher competition – they can't play against themselves, after all – so they're more of a target based on volume. Edmonton will play the Canucks, Canadiens and Maple Leafs twice each along with a single game against the Jets, and get the bonus of having only one back-to-back and starting the season with four-straight at home.

St. Louis – A lot of teams could slide into this third Love 'Em spot given how many have six games, but the Blues get to play four home games against the Sharks and Kings (two each), with only one back-to-back. Picking on the two most porous teams in their division should mean good production from a team with a lot of fantasy producers – there's a better chance of rostering a Blues player than say, a Senator, so the Blues are more relevant to fantasy players.

 

Leave 'Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)

Calgary – The Flames start the season with a remarkable amount of time off – they play three games between the 13th and 18th but then get five days off, which in a condensed schedule will pay dividends for Flames players later in the season but hurts in a big way in the present. Calgary doesn't even get to reap the rewards of being in the Canadian division yet, as their four games this period come against the Jets (once), Canucks (twice) and Leafs (once). Avoid, avoid, avoid during this period, but don't be discouraged by a lack of production from legitimate sleepers like Rasmus Andersson – the schedule will improve eventually.

New Jersey – With Jesper Bratt being unsigned at time of writing and Nico Hischier injured (timetable unknown, but sounds like he'll miss a few games), New Jersey's already ugly schedule looks much worse: Hischier and Bratt were the Devils' third- and fourth-best point producers last season and Hischier is 41 percent owned on Yahoo!. The Devils only play five games this period and have to face the stingy Bruins and Islanders twice each, as well as the Rangers with Calder-favourite Igor Shesterkin.

New York Islanders – The Islanders' schedule isn't much better than the Devils': two games at Madison Square Garden, a home game against Boston, and a home-and-away against the aforementioned Devils. One positive is that there are no back-to-backs in the Isle's five games, but the Islanders struggled to score last year (bottom-third in GF/game) and oh yeah, have yet to sign their best player in Mat Barzal. While that could change over the next week, going into the season with JG Pageau as the top-line C makes the Islanders even uglier than normal.

 

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