The Journey: Buy Low Prospects

Dave Hall

2021-01-09

Well, folks, we have made it. It was a long stretch. But finally, we have rounded third and are heading towards home plate. Just five days until NHL hockey. 

If you are all done with your fantasy draft(s), I hope that all of your airtight strategies turned out the way you had planned. Of course, they never do. If you have not drafted and are set to do so over the weekend, make sure to go back and check out my previous five pieces, where I touched on a variety of prospect options with both immediate and long term benefits. 

Here they are:

I would like to place some emphasis on last week's article, where I discussed what I like to call the "WJC effect". While I fully understand the hype surrounding certain players such as Trevor Zegras and the want to draft him early (in redraft leagues) based on recency bias (believe me, I am right there with you), it is crucial to keep your expectations reasonable. He, much like many of these young prospects, is by no means a shoo-in to make his NHL team out of camp. Jump in with caution, as you may end up disappointed and wasting away crucial waiver-wire dollars (if you use fantasy bid money).

The same can be said for goalies. In fact, even more so. How many goalies have stepped up for their countries, get hyped up, only to fizzle out into the darkness? Mark Visentin, Al Montoya, Zach Fucale…the list goes on. 

Now, given his strong outing, I am expecting Devon Levi's stock to rise substantially this season, at least in dynasty formats. With zero major junior experience to his name, he still has a long way to go to prove his worth.

You get my point, I digress. On to this week. This season will certainly be one for the ages, and one that could see an increased volume of young players fill more prominent roles. You can thank taxi squads and COVID protocols for this. 

There are few names floating around various training camps that intrigue me as potential bounce-back players (prospects). Players that could easily drop in drafts based on previous shortcomings and provide fantasy value. Buy low, sell high.

Let's take Jack Hughes and Kappo Kakko as perfect examples. Both put up quite disappointing rookie seasons, but are we going to cut them out of our drafting plan based on one year? Heck no. We are going to take full advantage of their low rankings, and capitalize!

In shallow leagues, how far did these two falls in your drafts? In one of my leagues, I was able to select Kakko in the seventh round (14-team league, with five keepers each), which was even considered a reach for some. Both are coming back for “prove it” sophomore seasons and I expect both to be just fine going forward.

Here are some names who will likely fall and could be worth taking a risk on as "buy low" candidates.

Jesse Puljujarvi, RW, Oilers

Forgive and forget. After Puljujarvi's failed post-draft stint, that is exactly what fantasy owners must do going forward. The former fourth overall draft pick is back in Edmonton and ready to take on his redemption shot following a successful year-and-a-half stint in Finland. He played a prominent role for Karpat (Liiga), posting 65 points over 72 games, and has taken significant steps towards his growth in the process. 

Take training camp lines with a grain of salt, but as of right now, he is listed to be skating on the third line alongside veterans Kyle Turris and Tyler Ennis. However, if he manages to come out of the gate strong and demonstrates the ability to compete at this level, don't sleep on him finding time in the top six next to one of their powerhouse stars. The same can be said for his power-play utilization. 

He could be primed for a breakout and you should be able to get him at a nice discounted price. 

Owen Tippett, RW, Panthers

Aside from taking a few seasons to develop, Owen Tippett has done nothing to warrant a slip in his stock. However, since his 2017 draft, the Peterborough native has taken the long road to the NHL, spending two years in junior before transitioning to his first-year pro during the 2019-20 campaign. With this in mind, combined with a few crops of shiny new prospects around the league, the buzz surrounding him has somewhat faded. This could work to your advantage and may result in him slipping to the deep end in your drafts. 

As mentioned, he turned pro last year, and had a respectable outing, producing 40 points (19G + 21A). This total sat tops on his team and eighth in the league among rookie skaters. The addition of Anthony Duclair may throw a small wrench in any immediate plans to have him dress in the top six. However, he remains a sharpshooting winger, capable of producing secondary offense for this Panthers team. 

Given his skill set, there is no reason to argue that he couldn't find his way into a prominent role during the season. You can etch him in the club's special teams unit, while you are at it.

Eeli Tolvanen, LW, Predators

Predators GM David Poile has confirmed that the coaching staff will be giving Tolvanen every opportunity to make the starting roster our if camp, which should come as a surprise to no one. The 2017 first rounder dropped from hero to zero quite swiftly, as he was unable to translate his overseas success to the North American game. 

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It's no secret that he carries an elite shot, but he's had issues creating room on the small ice in order to utilize that cannon. This instantly takes away a large piece of his effectiveness as an offensive driver. 

The Preds lack high-powered scoring options within their middle six, so if Tolvanen can have a good showing and insert himself into the opening-day roster, he could be utilized in roles that compliment his style. Regardless of where he plays at even strength, I anticipate the majority of his success to come via special teams. He is a prominent shooter and enjoys setting on the half walls, where he could play opposite Filip Forsberg. 

If he can tidy up his game up, goals like this are still very much a possibility.

Barrett Hayton, C, Coyotes

He may be a work in progress this year, but Hayton should be given a chance to make up for his forgettable rookie campaign. He is fresh off a quick stint in Sweden, where he suited up in eight games for Ilves (SHL), producing four assists during his stay.

The important thing is that he is healthy, and still has much room to grow. He may not see top-six immediately, but he should slip down the draft and in a deeper league, could be worth the gamble.

Gabriel Vilardi, C, Kings

The Kings are carrying tons of young ammunition right now, and if you are lucky, you could benefit from others rushing for name value. with GMs likely targeting more obvious names like Quinton Byfield, Alex Turcotte, or perhaps even Arthur Kaliyev, thanks to his recent WJC hype, you may be able to catch Vilardi quite late in the draft. 

If so, you will likely win the sweepstakes, as far as short term gains go. Vilardi, who missed over a year of action with back issues, has a good shot to play in Los Angeles this season and could easily enjoy increased minutes out the gate. He posted seven points through just 10 games with the Kings last year, following a strong showing with 25 points run through 32 games at the AHL level.

You could be looking at one of the top rookies for the 2020-21 season. 

Alexandre Texier, LW, Blue Jackets

Riddled with inconsistency and injury, Texier's rookie season wasn’t quite what we had hoped for. Fear not, he is healthy, eager, and with Gustav Nyquist out of the lineup, is poised to receive some increased minutes. Attempting to predict John Tortorella's line combinations is quite the task, but the swift-skating forward is likely to receive some time on the club's top-six. 

Lias Andersson, C, Kings

He is a project, there are no questions about that. Given his uncertainty, you may even be able to skip the draft and claim him off of the waiver wire as you await final roster announcements. Yet, Andersson is an interesting case. His original plan was to continue with Swedish hockey for the 2020-21 campaign, but with his recent move to LA, has decided to jump back into the North American circuit full-time. 

He’s had a great camp so far, and the coaching staff seems to be quite pleased with his progression. He’s already gelled with fellow countrymen Carl Grundstrom, who is also expected to make a push for a spot. Perhaps they could make up the club’s third-line together. He’s a skilled two-way prospect who you may be able to pick up for pennies.

*****

Thank you for joining me for another week. Best of luck to all of you fantasy owners in your first week of matchups.

Follow me on Twitter @hall1289.

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Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
LUKE HUGHES N.J
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
PATRIK LAINE MTL
KIRILL MARCHENKO CBJ
BRYAN RUST PIT

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
DUSTIN TOKARSKI CAR
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN
JONAS JOHANSSON T.B
JACOB MARKSTROM N.J

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency NYI Players
23.8 MAXIM TSYPLAKOV BO HORVAT SIMON HOLMSTROM
21.5 JEAN-GABRIEL PAGEAU ANDERS LEE MATHEW BARZAL
18.4 KYLE PALMIERI BROCK NELSON ANTHONY DUCLAIR

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