Ramblings – Rossi, Yandle concerns, Devils’ goaltending, waiver thoughts, drafting and more (Jan 11)

Dobber

2021-01-11

The 15th annual Fantasy Hockey Guide is out and ready for download! Draft List too! Updated up to today.

Thank you everyone for your support. It's been a tough year with sales of course being down. Tremendous, tremendous support from the community over the past week – sales in such a short window have been making a dent in the overall decline, eating away at the deficit. Lots of people getting pumped up for their drafts and picking up the Guide. Thank you!

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The news coming out of NHL training camps is getting more and more significant with each passing day. Already updated in the Fantasy Guide are important notes and adjustments on Marco Rossi and Keith Yandle – two players who are most definitely involved in a lot of drafts.

First, let's review Marco Rossi. His seven-day quarantine after the WJC ended, but the Wild didn't clear him to play. They announced that he is out indefinitely with an upper-body injury. So what happened? Did he get hurt in his last WJC game? Did his Austrian team have him playing while hurt? Since being drafted, he played in one game in Switzerland before getting COVID-19. Then he was pointless at the WJC, albeit with the worst lineup around him in the tournament. I still had him ranked third for my dynasty points-only league after Alexis Lafreniere and Tim Stuetzle – but I drafted seventh. I hoped, with all this news, that he would slip to me. But no, he still went fourth. So people aren't adjusting their value of him based on the last couple of months. I did bump him down a little in my Fantasy Prospect Rankings, mainly because Stuetzle was able to do so much with so little and Rossi was not. It was just a tiny tweak, as I generally don't allow a short tournament make any significant adjustments to my thinking.

The Wild plan to give Rossi a six-game look and see if he earns a full-time spot. I still think he will. But this latest news has me dropping his odds from 65% down to 51%. I drafted him Saturday night in my Keep-12 league, using my third-round pick on him, so I certainly hope he plays as I could use the depth.

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As for Yandle, this has me concerned. Very concerned.

He had six points in his last 21 games last season after starting with 39 in 48. He's 34 years old now, which isn't that old when considering he's in peak physical shape as the NHL's reigning Iron Man. But there are rumblings that the Panthers' coaching staff is unhappy with the risks that he takes. Joel Quenneville generally runs a tight ship, and his coaching debut season with that team went badly off the rails mainly due to the defense. Coach Q being unhappy with his defense saw Mike Matheson get shipped off to Pittsburgh. I tweaked my projection for Yandle down by just two points. A small tweak, but enough to impact drafts in the sense that maybe he's taken a round or two later. I can see a strong start that tails off quickly as his ice time gets cut.

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Jesper Bratt has signed a two-year contract, ending the stalemate with New Jersey. He is still in Sweden and will need to quarantine for seven days. That will take him out of the first two games against Boston. I have Bratt penciled in for his best season yet, particularly in the second half as he passes his 200-game Breakout Threshold. I see him on a very solid second line in New Jersey, especially if Jack Hughes rebounds nicely as we all expect.

Speaking of the Devils, what to do with the Corey Crawford situation?

But the Devils will do their best to get the other GMs to back down, and perhaps not even go to them at all. Wedgewood has NHL experience and at one time he was a very good prospect. Senn is also a decent prospect, though he can be sent down without having to go on waivers, which hurts his cause. For now, I have upped Mackenzie Blackwood's workload in the season ahead, making him a slightly better option to own in fantasy than he was before. And I have the backup duties split between Senn and Wedgewood, with Senn getting an extra game or two.

I don't think Jimmy Howard is a good option. But what I think doesn't matter, unless Devils' brass read my Ramblings every Monday. It's what an NHL GM thinks, and I'm sure some of them believe that Howard can do well in a limited backup capacity behind the right defensive system.

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Remaining RFAs to sign: Jack Roslovic, Dmytro Timashov, Henrik Borgstrom and Aleksi Saarela. The deadline for an RFA to sign is February 11. It looks like Roslovic is awaiting a trade, and I can see Borgstrom staying overseas for this year. As for the other two – they are in a precarious position and I think they would be wise to get a deal done if they want to nail down an NHL career.

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Colorado Taxi Squad members look to be: Shane Bowers, Martin Kaut, Kiefer Sherwood, Dennis Gilbert and Hunter Miska. Taxi Squads can have a maximum of six players, but must include a goalie.

Jared Bednar quote: "I think it's got to be a 60-40, 65-35 split for Gruby. I view Gruby as our starter." That about how I have it in the Fantasy Guide.

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The following interesting names were placed on waivers yesterday and are free to be claimed by anyone:

Louis Domingue (would New Jersey bring him back?)

Gerald Mayhew (last year's AHL top goal scorer)

Andrew Hammond (another NJD option)

Jordan Weal

Noah Juulsen

Charlie Lindgren (another NJD option)

Joshua Ho-Sang (somebody save this guy from Lou!)

Maxime Lajoie (remember when he had that hot start for Ottawa and fooled some poolies into drafting him?)

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Here are the first 20 players on my draft list that I thought I would share, not just for the sake of interest but in case it helps. All leagues are different, but this should give you an idea of the value I place in these players and the order I place them. It's for my 15-team dynasty, 34 players on each team – points-only, best 12 F, 4D, 2G count. I identified these 20 players as not only can't-miss…but also very high upside.

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1              Alexis Lafreniere              NYR

2              Tim Stuetzle       OTT

3              Marco Rossi        MIN

4              Quinton Byfield LAK

5              Lucas Raymond DET

6              Yaroslav Askarov              NSH

7              Cole Perfetti      WPG

8              Seth Jarvis           CAR

9              Nils Lundkvist    NYR

10           Josh Norris          OTT

11           Nick Robertson TOR

12           Connor McMichael          WAS

13           Phillip Tomasino               NSH

14           Jack Quinn          BUF

15           Thomas Harley  DAL

16           Alexander Holtz NJD

17           Jakob Pelletier   CGY

18           Mavrik Bourque               DAL

19           Brendan Brisson               VGK

20           K’Andre Miller   NYR

I picked 7th and 30th. But I did my homework early and identified quickly that this wasn't a normal draft. Usually this list of "can't miss" is 12 players long, give or take. So I made moves to add higher picks. So I picked 7th, 13th, 30th and 33rd.

At 7 – The top guy on my list was Askarov. Ug. I hated that decision. Because I already have Lehner, Bobrovsky, Talbot, Kahkonen and Delia. I'm really not looking for a goalie. But this is the 'best' goalie to come around in years. I'll admit that his WJC performance influenced me a bit. It shouldn't, but it did. I really wanted a forward. So I took Perfetti, knowing Askarov wasn't making it to me at 13. But if he did, then of course I'd have to take him.

At 13 – Top guy on my list available was Lundkvist. But I told myself that Lundkvist had a chance to slip to 30. A small chance, but a chance. And if he didn't, then Harley would. Norris had no chance. And again, it is high-upside forwards that I need. So I took Norris and crossed my fingers. I'll worry about defensemen at 30 or 33.

At 30 – Sure enough, Lundkvist was taken 27th. So close! Top two players on my list now were Harley and Pelletier. The reason I wasn't comfortable with Harley was the roadblocks in front of him. He's a sure thing, a future star. But when will he help me in this type of league? Sure, he'll be a regular next season. But when will he help? Four years? This is when I started eyeballing the 'almost' sure-things. Ian Mitchell and Scott Perunovich were the next two, followed by Daniel Vladar. I had Connor Zary in there as well, but Zary was drafted at this point. I decided to take Pelletier here and let Harley slide, and think about which of those three defensemen I want.

At 33 – I went with Ian Mitchell. Only one roadblock – Adam Boqvist. And as much as Boqvist is the top fantasy prospect defenseman…he hasn't produced yet and was getting scratched in the playoffs. Mitchell, being older and also a high draft pick, could feasibly steal the spotlight. Certainly fewer obstacles than Harley.

Last two picks (67 and 69) – These were my gamble picks and I like how Jonatan Berggren is playing right now overseas. His gamble is his injury history, so we'll see how that goes. My last pick was Brogan Rafferty. The good thing about grabbing a 25-year-old is that you find out right away if it didn't work out. No sitting on him for five years and then dropping him. Naw, if he fails I can figure that out in one year.

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See you next Monday.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 05 - 19:11 CAR vs PHI
Nov 05 - 19:11 MTL vs CGY
Nov 05 - 19:11 BUF vs OTT
Nov 05 - 19:11 TOR vs BOS
Nov 05 - 19:11 NYI vs PIT
Nov 05 - 20:11 MIN vs L.A
Nov 05 - 20:11 STL vs T.B
Nov 05 - 20:11 WPG vs UTA
Nov 05 - 21:11 COL vs SEA
Nov 05 - 22:11 ANA vs VAN
Nov 05 - 22:11 S.J vs CBJ

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
CONNOR MCMICHAEL WSH
ALEX LAFERRIERE L.A
MARTIN NECAS CAR
PAVEL DOROFEYEV VGK
TIMOTHY LILJEGREN S.J

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN
PYOTR KOCHETKOV CAR
JUSTUS ANNUNEN COL
FREDERIK ANDERSEN CAR

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency MTL Players
17.8 BRENDAN GALLAGHER JAKE EVANS JOEL ARMIA
15.5 JURAJ SLAFKOVSKY ALEX NEWHOOK KIRBY DACH
13.1 OLIVER KAPANEN EMIL HEINEMAN CHRISTIAN DVORAK

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