Eastern Edge: Best values from each Eastern team
Brennan Des
2021-01-12
In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll predict the most valuable fantasy hockey asset from each team in 2021. For the purposes of this article, fantasy hockey value is the difference between expectations and reality. If you're spending a high draft pick on a player, you expect a lot from them. With such lofty expectations, there isn't much room for the player's actual production to surpass their expected production. In contrast, if you steal someone in the later rounds of your draft or add them from the waiver wire, then there's more room for that player to outperform expectations. So, this isn't an article about each team's leading scorer, or conventional 'MVP'. Rather, it's a list of players who can be acquired at a relatively low cost given their projected production.
Boston Bruins – Matt Grzelcyk
Torey Krug's departure creates an opening on Boston's top power-play unit, which will be filled by either Charlie McAvoy or Matt Grzelcyk this year. It sounds like Grzelcyk has performed well on the top unit during training camp, sparking optimism around his fantasy outlook for 2021. Krug was tallying 25-30 power-play points in recent seasons as Boston's power-play quarterback. Even if Grzelcyk can't match that elite level of production, a prominent power-play role would certainly help boost his point totals. Considering he's currently available on the waiver wire in 70-percent of Yahoo leagues, there's great potential for Grzelcyk to outperform expectations this year.
Buffalo Sabres – Rasmus Dahlin
He scored at a 56-point pace last year on a Sabres team that wasn't exactly overflowing with offensive talent. The acquisitions of Eric Staal and Taylor Hall significantly improve Buffalo's scoring depth, increasing the amount of time that Dahlin shares the ice with competent offensive players at even strength. Staal and Hall should also make Buffalo more dangerous with the man advantage, which in turn helps Dahlin's power-play point totals. Aside from Hall and Staal's positive impact on the team, I think Dahlin takes a massive step forward this season, developing into the elite defenseman he was projected to be as the first overall pick of the 2018 draft.
Carolina Hurricanes – Jaccob Slavin
There was a time when Carolina's top players flew under the radar. A time when you could select Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen outside the first few rounds in your fantasy draft. Unfortunately, that's nothing more than a memory today – where you'd be forced to spend top dollar to acquire the likes of Aho and Teravainen. Similarly, there's no discount for players that broke out more recently as Andrei Svechnikov and Dougie Hamilton are also being drafted early in most leagues. Jaccob Slavin is one of the few fantasy-relevant Hurricanes that is slipping to the later rounds of most drafts. He stepped up big time in Hamilton's absence last year and should still be able to contribute a significant number of points, shots and blocks – even while playing second fiddle to Hamilton.
Columbus Blue Jackets – Oliver Bjorkstrand
If you're an avid reader here at DobberHockey, you've probably seen numerous articles praising Bjorkstrand, with many of our writers prophesying his imminent breakout. The 25-year-old winger had an underappreciated showing last year, tallying 30 points in his final 30 appearances of the season. His current ADP of 169 suggests that he's being stolen late in most fantasy leagues. With such a low ADP, he's primed to provide great return on investment.
Detroit Red Wings – Anthony Mantha
Mantha broke out in the second half of the 2018-2019 campaign, tallying 33 points in his final 38 appearances – a 70-point pace! He carried that momentum into the 2019-2020 regular season, posting 38 points through 43 games – again, a 70-point pace. He remains undervalued because of his injury history, as he's missed long stretches of action in recent years. However, in my opinion, his past injuries don't necessarily make him more likely to miss time in the future. At present, Mantha has only been drafted in 65-percent of Yahoo leagues and when he is drafted, he's frequently taken outside of the top-150. That's insane value for someone who should score near a point-per-game pace this year.
Florida Panthers – Aaron Ekblad
The 24-year-old defenseman managed a career-high 50-point pace last year, tallying 41 points through 67 games. Only six of those points came on the power play as Ekblad didn't have a prominent role with the man advantage. That could change in 2021, as coach Quenneville seems ready to trust Ekblad with more power-play time. Adding power-play production to his repertoire should boost Ekblad's fantasy value, allowing him to outperform his ADP of 131. While Keith Yandle has been Florida's power-play quarterback over the last few years, transitioning Ekblad into that role makes sense considering Yandle turns 35 this year.
Montreal Canadiens – Jonathan Drouin
According to Yahoo's draft analysis, Drouin wasn't drafted in most fantasy leagues. In the few leagues he was chosen, a late-round pick was enough to acquire him. To some extent, I can understand why this would be the case. Drouin's talent has always been obvious, but he's struggled to translate that raw talent into meaningful results. He's frequently fallen short of our lofty expectations and it seems most fantasy managers have finally run out of patience. I personally think that injuries derailed what would have been a career season last year. He started the 2019-2020 campaign with 15 points in 19 games before suffering a wrist injury that kept him sidelined for nearly two months. He looked like a dynamic and dangerous player in those 19 games, displaying a level of diligence in his game that had been missing previously. Drouin also had a strong showing in the postseason, tallying seven points in 10 appearances. He showed impressive chemistry with rookie sensation Nick Suzuki in those playoffs – chemistry which should carry into the 2021 campaign as Drouin and Suzuki are expected to play alongside Josh Anderson. I'm really excited for that trio as I think Anderson's speed and size could create more space for Drouin's skill and Suzuki's intelligence to shine.
New Jersey Devils – Nikita Gusev
I discussed Gusev as an undervalued fantasy asset in last week's Eastern Edge, so I'll avoid repeating myself too much here. The short of it is that Gusev produced at an impressive rate last year after taking some time to adjust to his new surroundings in North America. Offensively minded head coach Lindy Ruff should hopefully make the most of Gusev's scoring abilities.
New York Islanders – Anthony Beauvillier
The young winger scored at a 47-point pace during the 2019-2020 regular season and followed that up with nine goals in 22 playoff games. The 17 minutes of ice time he averaged last year represents a significant increase from previous years when he was seeing fewer than 15 minutes a night. Expect him to hold a prominent role in the top-six again this year, resulting in plenty of chances to score as he continues to develop his own game. He's currently sitting on the waiver wire in 87-percent of Yahoo leagues. Adding him to your roster for free at this point could be a good idea considering he's on the verge of breaking out.
New York Rangers – Pavel Buchnevich
The Rangers have an abundance of fantasy-relevant players, but most of those players are being drafted early in fantasy leagues. Buchnevich represents the exception. With an ADP of 169, Buchnevich is currently rostered in just 21-percent of Yahoo leagues. He averaged nearly 17 minutes of ice time last season after seeing roughly 15 minutes per game in previous years. His offensive output has seen gradual improvement over time and he could flirt with a 60-point pace this year as a member of New York's star-studded top-six.
Ottawa Senators – Colin White
Two months ago, I did a breakdown of White's injury history and how it seems to have diminished his fantasy hockey value. I came to the conclusion that his past injuries don't necessarily make him more likely to get injured in the future, and therefore shouldn't limit his fantasy value. Although White is coming off a disappointing sophomore campaign that saw him score at a 31-point pace, he's just one season removed from the 47-point pace of his rookie year. He should see increased minutes in 2021 now that he has more experience under his belt and a solid claim to the title of Ottawa's second-line center. He's sitting on the waiver wire in most fantasy leagues but should provide great value in deeper formats.
Philadelphia Flyers – Erik Gustafsson
He's currently rostered in just 11-percent of Yahoo leagues and makes for a great low-risk, high-reward target. His offensive abilities were on full display in 2018-2019 when he tallied 60-points in Chicago. That past success should qualify him to at least get a shot on Philly's top power-play unit. While Ivan Provorov was the team's top power-play defenseman last year and fared well during the regular season, the Flyers scored on just four of their 52 opportunities during the 2020 playoffs. Sure, the sample size is small, but that 7.7-percent success rate with the man advantage indicates the team will at least see what Gustafsson can do on the top unit. If he makes the most of that opportunity, he could be a huge steal this year.
Pittsburgh Penguins – Kasperi Kapanen
I'm excited to see what the talented and speedy winger can do as a part of Pittsburgh's star-studded top-six. He's currently rostered in just 28-percent of Yahoo leagues and his fantasy value is currently limited by a combination of visa issues and quarantine, which will cause him to miss the first couple game of the season. I could also see Bryan Rust and Jason Zucker outperforming expectations this year, so keep an eye on them as well if they fall to the later rounds of your draft.
Tampa Bay Lightning – Alex Killorn
By now, we have a solid understanding of the fantasy value that Tampa's big names provide. Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman, Mikhail Sergachev and Andrei Vasilevskiy are valuable fantasy assets, but they're all being drafted early in most fantasy leagues. Thus, there isn't much room for them to outperform expectations. In contrast, Alex Killorn has only been drafted in 12-percent of Yahoo leagues and currently possesses an ADP of 164. He scored at nearly a 60-point pace last season and should feature prominently in Tampa's top-six at even strength and top unit with the man advantage.
Toronto Maple Leafs – Ilya Mikheyev
It's slightly more difficult to find hidden gems in a market that receives such a high volume of media coverage – where every player is constantly discussed and frequently evaluated. From a hockey perspective, nothing flies under the radar in Toronto. While the team's big players aren't being undervalued in most leagues, Ilya Mikheyev is someone who could provide a lot of value to your fantasy roster. He may start 2021 on the third line, but I think there's a good chance he eventually works his way into the top-six. A 55-point pace from a waiver wire addition could be a great deal in deeper leagues.
Washington Capitals – Jakub Vrana
Through his first few years in the NHL, Vrana has consistently improved his offensive production. That upward trajectory should continue in 2021 as he cultivates a greater role for himself. He managed a 62-point pace last year while averaging fewer than 15 minutes of ice time per game and only seeing sporadic stints on the power-play. He should tally more points as he sees more minutes this season. Ultimately, none of the other fantasy-relevant players in Washington are being undervalued, so Vrana was the obvious choice for me.