The NHL finally returned to action this week. And as much as I want to dive into the happenings of the first two nights let me summarize that article by saying your question "is definitely due to a small sample size. Let's wait a few games and see what happens." In the meantime, go read the Ramblings for the most recent news and happenings.

Until we have a few more games to go on I wanted to dig into goalies. Not just any goalies either – the ones that are being left behind in drafts.

Goalies are basically impossible so when writing about them I try and focus on opportunity and track record. Each league weighs them slightly differently, so one of the things we will do is try and break down which guys might be better for wins and saves (so volume starters) and which guys might be better for save percentage or goals-against average. Often with bargain bin goalies you don't get both, so figuring out which is the most valuable in your league is key.

For process this week I pulled ownership numbers out of Yahoo. So again, some tedious cutting and pasting. I also grabbed the data earlier in the week, so it is possible that some of the ownership numbers have changed slightly since then. Our other data for these goalies will come from their Player Profiles on Frozen Tools as well as the team depth charts.

To start let's take a look at a few goalies who have higher ownership numbers than most that we will talk about, but still less than 50% owned (oh and the preseason rank is according to Yahoo – settings include wins, saves, and save percentage).

I wanted to briefly highlight two goalies from this list: Murray over in Ottawa, and Sorokin on the Islanders. Murray is intriguing if your league values goalies who play a lot or see a lot of shots. He should get both in Ottawa (assuming he can stay healthy). Craig Anderson has been an underrated value for many seasons because of the amount of time he played and the shots that Ottawa allows. He may not be great for wins or for save percentage since Ottawa might have a bit of trouble defensively. On the plus side, his three-year average save percentage on Pittsburgh prior to a terrible 2019-20 was .917, so there is an outside shot he might be okay (notice all of the caveats in that sentence?)

On the flip side, Ilya Sorokin may not get a ton of games (splitting time with Semyon Varlamov) or a ton of shots because he plays for a stingy Islanders team, but he should be great for save percentage and for wins when he does play. And there is also always a chance that Varlamov gets injured (it has been known to happen), which would make Sorokin a must own.

Also somehow Mikko Koskinen is also owned in less than 50% of leagues. As a starting goalie for what should be a high-scoring Edmonton team I would anticipate that number increases.

The table below is made up of the goalies who are owned in less than 25% of leagues. It is sorted by that Yahoo rank. I put the goalies in bold that are discussed below.

Petersen and Jonathan Quick are on the list to discuss – but for different reasons. Unfortunately, Petersen is now listed as injured to start the season. Prior to that there was a fair amount of buzz and optimism about him taking time from Quick over the course of the season. That made him an interesting prospective add. He still could be a sneaky value as you can stash him now and there is still the hope he will take that job at some point. In the meantime, Quick becomes the undisputed starter, which means he could be useful if you need the starts. Recently though, Quick hasn't been great in net. His save percentage was .904 in 2019-20, and .888 in 2018-19. Starting him definitely carries a risk, but again, if your need is games played, he is worth a look.

Ullmark is a bit more owned – but has been falling in all drafts and is still below 25% owned. He is the starter in Buffalo so should be a good bet for games played. He also has a .911 personal career save percentage with a .915 in 2019-20 and a .905 in 2018-19. Buffalo has been steadily adding pieces over the last several years and once again there is some optimism for team growth. With Jack Eichel, Taylor Hall, Victor Olofsson, Eric Staal, and Sam Reinhart there is a pretty solid core up front and Rasmus Dahlin, Rasmus Ristolainen, Brandon Montour, Henri Jokiharju, and Colin Miller give some options on D as well. Ullmark is certainly not a sure thing, but a starter on what could be a better team likely deserves higher ownership numbers, particularly since Koskinen is owned in more than twice as many leagues.  

Raanta's three-year save percentage average is .924. He has been good for Arizona when not injured. The problem is his injuries opened the door for Darcy Kuemper, and Raanta now likely starts the season as Kuemper's backup. It was not long ago though when Raanta was a hot commodity on draft day. He should be good in the games he plays (though it does remain to be seen what percentage of games he is scheduled to get). If you are in need of a solid save percentage outing and Raanta looks to be starting, he could be a good bet. Arizona does also seem to be cursed with goalie injuries, so it seems fairly likely that at some point Raanta may be able to step into a more active role.

One final comment here. Subban got the start on opening night in Chicago. It could be a positive sign for him, but he is getting paid less than Collin Delia, so who knows what we can read into anything at this point. The start did not go well, so that isn't great.

The Chicago situation is interesting in that we don't know for sure who is going to get the job and we have some young guys who are about to get their first real shot at a starting gig. Robin Lehner and Corey Crawford have shown that a goalie can still be valuable in Chicago, even though Chicago is pretty porous defensively. It remains to be seen whether Subban or Delia can morph into Lehner or Crawford caliber goalies – though the initial data doesn't look great. Subban did have a monster save in his first game for whatever that is worth. It is worth keeping an eye on Chicago as both guys are widely available.

That is all for this week. Thanks for reading.

Stay safe out there.

Want more tool talk? Check out these recent Frozen Tool Forensics Posts.

Frozen Tools Forensics: Draft Yahoo – Part 2

Frozen Tools Forensics: Drafting Yahoo

Frozen Tools Forensics: Five-on-Five Shooting Percentage