Daily Fantasy Saturday: Back in Business

Stephen Dotzel

2021-01-16

With all the chaos and uncertainty currently going on in the world, how nice is it to finally be able to flip on some hockey and take a little breather from everything if only for just a few hours a night? It has been over ten months since you, I, or anyone else has been able to play any form of fantasy hockey during the regular season, so I'd like to hit on a few key concepts in the daily game as a refresher. If you're completely new to daily fantasy, I suggest going back and checking out my articles from the beginning of last season (November 2019). You can find them under the "Columns" tab on the DobberHockey.com home page and navigating to "Daily Fantasy". There I go into much more detail about many aspects of daily fantasy.

Please note that I play almost exclusively on DraftKings and therefore will tailor my suggestions to their scoring. If you play on FanDuel or any other site, there are enough similarities between them that you can apply much of this advice to those sites as well. Just be sure to be aware of the scoring and roster differences that exist between each site.

As you probably know, goals and assists are what we're looking for when rostering players in daily fantasy. However, there is another component that plays a large role in fantasy scoring and that is shots. This is especially true on DraftKings, where a three-point bonus is awarded to a player for recording five or more shot attempts on goal. With a value of 1.5 points per shot, a player who simply has five shots during a game and nothing else will accrue 10.5 DraftKings points. For perspective, two assists are worth 10 DraftKings points. When you consider the fact that shots for a player are typically more predictable than goals or assists on a nightly basis, you can begin to see why targeting players who shoot the puck frequently could have better results that hunting for goals. Another good thing that happens is that when players shoot the puck a lot, it sometimes goes in!

Another major concept I want to hit on before getting into my suggestions for tonight's action is correlation. While this varies between some of the top players in NHL DFS, I think they all would agree that when playing tournaments, you often want at least some correlation between skaters in your lineup which can be achieved through "stacking". Before the revamp of the DraftKings scoring a few seasons ago, when they added the shot and block bonuses, stacking was basically a necessity. Full line and power-play stacks are the most common and involve rostering at least two skaters who are either on an even strength line together, a power play unit together, or both. 

Many top DFS players use multiple stacks within a single lineup resulting in 4-3-1 or 3-3-2 stacks to comprise their 8 skater roster spots. You will more often than not see stacks like this at the tops of the leaderboards most nights in DFS. While these stacks can be successful, it is still possible to do well in tournaments with less full stacks as long as your lineup as a whole has plenty of shot upside. A 3-2-2-1, 3-2-1-1-1, or even a 2-2-2-1-1 lineup construction can hit for a big score if each one-off player achieves or comes close to the shot bonus, even without scoring a goal as I've previously mentioned.

Each slate is unique so just try to be cognizant of each player's situation and try to think through what would have to happen for that player to have a big night. Two examples I will give are Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Mike Hoffman. Nugent-Hopkins, to me, is a guy that you would not want to play "naked" or not in a stack. Since he skates with one or both of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on a given night at both even strength and the power play, it is highly unlikely that if Nugent-Hopkins scores say two goals, that McDavid or Draisaitl is not involved in one or both. Because of this I would always roster Nugent-Hopkins with one of those two, probably which ever he is projected to skate with at even strength that night. On the flip side, Connor McDavid is a guy who we all know can make things happen on his own. As a result, if I'm rostering Connor McDavid I can stack him with Nugent-Hopkins but I can also play him naked or with a different Oiler. I don't HAVE to use Nugent-Hopkins.

In Florida, Hoffman was a great example of someone who I often rostered naked. He was a guy who seldom found himself on the top line, often had a revolving group of skaters around him at even strength, but still managed to shoot and produce fantasy points on a consistent basis. It helped that while not skating on the top line at even strength, he was often on the top power-play unit. All of this combined to give you someone who could certainly be played on his own if necessary. We'll see if this is something that carries over to his new digs in St. Louis.

Hopefully, the above concepts and examples can help you improve your daily fantasy lineups! Now let's get into tonight's slate. In the past I've written this from a cash game perspective but let's be real, nobody is playing NHL cash games these days. You can't even find a contest over $2 with more than a few hundred entries. We all want to turn our $10 into $10,000 or our $4 into $5,000 so that's what I'm going to focus on. Below are some suggestions on handling Saturday's eight game slate.

All players and prices are from DraftKings Main Slate (7 pm EST)

Top Options – High Owned

EDM1/2 – Connor McDavid ($8,500), Leon Draisaitl ($8,300), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (7,400), Kailer Yamamoto ($4,800), Tyson Barrie ($4,600)

Any time Edmonton is on the slate and you don't roster Connor McDavid, you run the risk of missing out on a game like Thursday where he put up 53 DraftKings points on the back of nine shots, three goals, and an assist. With that performance fresh in everyone's mind, I'd expect this group to be among the most owned players on the slate. That elevated ownership coupled with sky-high price tags has me looking elsewhere in tournaments, but I certainly wouldn't fault anyone for rolling with the Oilers.

TOR1/2 – Auston Matthews ($8,200), Mitch Marner ($6,300), John Tavares ($6,800), William Nylander ($6,800)

One positive of teams playing back-to-back games within a day or two of each other is that on the second day we get the benefit of seeing how the ownership landed on the first day. Since Toronto and Ottawa just played Friday night this is one of those situations. By looking at Friday's data we can see that the Toronto top line consisting of Matthews and Marner came in at double the ownership of the second line's duo of Tavares and Nylander. A trend from the 2019-2020 season that we will have to keep an eye on is Matthews home/road splits. 32 of his 47 goals from last season came at home. With the Maple Leafs on the road in this one, I like the idea of taking the salary and ownership discount and dropping down to the Tavares and Nylander line for tournaments. If you want to go even further, I think the third line of Zach Hyman ($5,100) – Alexander Kerfoot ($2,500) – Ilya Mikheyev ($3,900) offer some nice value pieces to stack up with some other high-end guys.

VGK1 – Max Pacioretty ($7,300), Mark Stone ($7,000), Alex Pietrangelo ($6,400)

As expected, the Vegas Golden Knights had success finding the back of the net Thursday night against Anaheim and will get a rematch with the Ducks Saturday. Pacioretty was the highest owned player on that Thursday slate so I would anticipate much of that to carry over to tonight's identical matchup. Someone who shoots as often as Pacioretty, he trailed only Nathan MacKinnon and Alex Ovechkin in shots on goal last year, is always in play for the five-shot bonus on DraftKings and is the type of player I look to target in all formats as often as possible and tonight is no different. Stone joins him at both even strength and the power play making him the preferred stacking option for Pacioretty. The newest Knight, Pietrangelo, had a solid debut racking up 14.9 DraftKings points and joins both skaters on the power play.

I don't anticipate too much ownership in any other spots, making this slate a good opportunity to get a little off the beaten path for tournaments. If any or all of the above players faulter you can put yourself in really good position with some of the situations below.

Top Options – Low Owned

CGY1/2 – Sean Monahan ($5,500), Johnny Gaudreau ($5,900), Elias Lindholm ($5,600), Matthew Tkachuk ($6,000)

In what will be Jacob Markstrom's first game against his former team, I expect Calgary to have a little extra pep in their step in this matchup against the Canucks. I think both of the top lines make great, affordable options for tournaments but I'll give the slight edge to the Lindholm-Tkachuk line if forced to choose. You can add Dillon Dube ($3,400) or Mark Giordano ($6,500) to the stack for increased correlation.

MTL1 – Phillip Danault ($3,500), Brendan Gallagher (5,800), Tomas Tatar ($5,500)

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The second line took all the headlines in the Canadiens opening night victory as Josh Anderson and Nick Suzuki combined for three goals. I think the trio above, in particular Gallagher, will fly under the radar in Saturday's action in a favorable matchup against the Edmonton Oilers. Shea Weber ($6,000) and Jeff Petry ($4,900) are two defenseman you can add on to this stack, or pair with Gallagher alone.

MIN1/2 – Kevin Fiala ($6,600), Kirill Kaprizov (4,200), Jared Spurgeon ($4,500)

Kaprizov wasted no time impressing in his first NHL game with a beautiful overtime winning goal on Thursday night against the same Kings team the Wild find themselves matched up with tonight. There still might be some time to roster Kaprizov at discounted ownership before he becomes a well-known name to the casual fantasy player. But the greatest fantasy asset of this group is Fiala who since February 1 of last season has scored 17 goals in 23 games and has reached at least 15 DraftKings points in just under half of those games. Fiala, like Mike Hoffman from above, is a guy you can certainly roll out naked as he can create enough shots on his own.

Other Stacking Options to Consider

VGK2 – Jonathan Marchessault ($5,700) – William Karlsson ($5,800) – Reilly Smith ($4,300) – Shea Theodore ($6,800)

CAR2 – Andrei Svechnikov ($6,900) – Vincent Trocheck ($4,400) – Martin Necas ($3,700) – Dougie Hamilton (6,200)

Top Value Options for Filling Out Lineups

C – Pierre-Luc Dubois ($4,300), Max Domi ($3,800), Cody Glass ($2,800), Derek Stepan ($2,500)

W – Alex Tuch ($4,800), Brock Boeser ($4,600), Ilya Mikheyev ($3,900), Andrew Mangiapane ($3,100)

D – Zach Werenski ($4,700), Tyson Barrie ($4,600), Tyler Myers ($3,700), Ben Chiarot ($3,600)

Goalie Picks

Petr Mrazek ($8,300)

Jacob Markstrom ($7,900)

Cam Talbot ($8,000)

Robin Lehner (8,500)

Carey Price (7,200)

Be sure to double check your lineups before lock for any last-minute scratches or goalie changes, especially this year with the COVID protocols. If you follow me on Twitter @SteveDotzel you can subscribe to my "DFS-NHL" list which is comprised of several team beat writers tweeting the most recent news in real-time. You can also reach out to me on Twitter and I'll do my best to answer any questions I can. Hope to see you on top of the leaderboards!

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UPCOMING GAMES

Mar 19 - 19:03 DET vs CBJ
Mar 19 - 19:03 N.J vs PIT
Mar 19 - 19:03 PHI vs TOR
Mar 19 - 19:03 NYR vs WPG
Mar 19 - 19:03 BOS vs OTT
Mar 19 - 19:03 NYI vs CAR
Mar 19 - 20:03 NSH vs S.J
Mar 19 - 20:03 STL vs COL
Mar 19 - 21:03 EDM vs MTL
Mar 19 - 22:03 VGK vs T.B
Mar 19 - 22:03 L.A vs CHI
Mar 19 - 22:03 VAN vs BUF
Mar 19 - 22:03 ANA vs MIN

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
DANIIL MIROMANOV CGY
CONNOR MCMICHAEL WSH
CONNOR BEDARD CHI
EVGENY KUZNETSOV CAR
TAGE THOMPSON BUF

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
DUSTIN WOLF CGY
CHARLIE LINDGREN WSH
DANIIL TARASOV CBJ
DEVIN COOLEY S.J
JOEY DACCORD SEA

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency BOS Players
24.2 BRAD MARCHAND JAKE DEBRUSK CHARLIE COYLE
17.7 JUSTIN BRAZEAU JESPER BOQVIST JOHN BEECHER
14.8 DANTON HEINEN MORGAN GEEKIE TRENT FREDERIC

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