Capped: Early concerns and buying opportunities
Alexander MacLean
2021-01-21
We have a week in the books and that means it's time to start sending trade offers to your fellow GMs to see who you can steal away while they panic about a bad first three games. Since this is the Capped section, we're going to focus on players who are also in a contract year, and theoretically would have more to play for. Some of these players will bounce back and have career years (or close to) in seeking the best deal they can find for themselves in free agency. Unfortunately, for their wallets and their fantasy owners, some are bound to flop. Let's try to sort out which is which.
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Ryan Getzlaf (C) – Anaheim Ducks
Current Cap Hit: $8,250,000
The 35-year-old veteran hasn't been on his usual scoring pace, and some reduced ice time is partly to blame. Getzlaf has one measly assist to his name through the first three games of the season. The saving grace for fantasy owners to this point has been Getzlaf's hit total which is higher than ever (15 through three games). His shot rate is struggling, and that is likely due to a reduction in ice time both at even strength and on the power play. The Ducks seem to be giving more minutes, and especially the offensive minutes to the young guns. Getzlaf is starting only 43 percent of his shifts in the offensive zone, the lowest number of his career, continuing a downwards trend from the last few years. He will bounce back to some extent, but his full season scoring pace in the 50s from the last two years may be the best we can expect from him at this point.
Kevin Fiala (RW) – Minnesota Wild
Current Cap Hit: $3,000,000
Fiala has been snake-bit through three games entering play on Wednesday, but there is no need to worry for the 23-year-old. As Cam touched on in his Wednesday Ramblings, Fiala's 18 shots through three games mean that the dam is going to burst soon. He is also seeing an absurd 5:50 per game on the power play plus another 14 minutes per game at even strength, and starting almost 70 percent of his shifts in the offensive zone. Deployments just don't get any tastier than that. The buy-low window is open just a crack, but try to squeeze in before it slams shut.
David Rittich (G) – Calgary Flames
Current Cap Hit: $2,750,000
At the end of last season with Cam Talbot on his way out it appeared that David Rittich would be in line for an increase in starts on a rebounding Flames team. This would be happening just in time for his bridge deal to end. Unfortunately for both Rittich and his fantasy owners, the Flames managed to poach Vezina candidate Jacob Markstrom from the Canucks. Markstrom has started each of the Flames' first three games, with a shutout and two wins to show for it. Regardless of how well Rittich plays, he's stuck in a backup role likely seeing at most 25% of the starts on the season (assuming Markstrom stays healthy). There's no getting around this one if you own him, he's a sunk cost for the year, but at least that means his next contract won't be as hard on your wallet.
Igor Shesterkin (G) / Ilya Samsonov (G) – New York Rangers / Washington Capitals
Current Cap Hit: Both $925,000
Both young Russian netminders were appointed as their teams' starters to enter the season, but with a combined 38 games between them entering 2021, there were bound to be hiccups. Both have since lost a couple of starts to their young backup goalies who have fared well thus far. Of the two though, Shesterkin's underlying numbers are a lot less worrisome. His issue is the defence in front of him, which will hopefully get better as they gel a bit. Without the pre-season to iron out issues and find some chemistry, their young core plus the sub-par Jack Johnson were always going to be tough to play behind. Push hard to buy now while you can.
On the Washington side, the team in front of Samsonov is a lot more solid, however it is concerning that his even strength save percentage number is extremely low. If Vanecek's numbers weren't better across the board then we might be able to chalk it up to some systems failure, but in the early going the struggles are squarely on Samsonov's inexperienced shoulders. Try to wait another week where he won't have enough time to right the ship, and then look into buying.
Joel Armia (RW) – Montreal Canadiens
Current Cap Hit: $2,600,000
Some managers were excited about Armia's outlook for the season (including yours truly), until Montreal completely revamped their forward depth. The additions have left Armia off of both power-play units and, at best, on the third line at even strength. He had upside for a sneaky 50-point season if his deployment continued its upward trend from last season, but with the step back he will now be lucky to hit 40. That being said, Armia can still fill up some peripheral stats, averaging almost three hits and three shots per game last season, but again it is being muted this year due to a lack of ice time. The four minutes he has lost from last year to now may start to be given back to him as the season goes, but in the short and medium term he's just someone to monitor, and not a buy-low.
Nikita Gusev (RW) – New Jersey Devils
Current Cap Hit: $4,500,000
Jack Hughes seems to have busted his slump, and he is dragging Kyle Palmieri up with him. It's only a matter of time until the other top right winger on the Devils also starts hitting the scoresheet with some regularity. However, 'regularity' is all relative, and expectations are high for Gusev. The 28-year-old winger from Russia should be adjusted to the North American style now. Alas, Gusev had one of the lowest even-strength ice time totals on the team in the Devils' last game, and he seems to be trending down rather than up. Optimism comes in threes, though, for Gusev: He's putting over three shots on net per game, he is seeing three minutes per game of power-play time, and he's currently only playing with the team's third-best centre. That last point is key, because it provides us with a specific date to look forward to for when Gusev is most likely to find another gear. As soon as Nico Hischier is back in the lineup (whenever that may be), expect Gusev to take off offensively.
Jordan Binnington (G) – St. Louis Blues
Current Cap Hit: $4,400,000
The last goalie on the list is possibly the most puzzling. His career arc is not a traditional one, and the team has seen quite the turnover of faces since their Stanley Cup win. Binnington 'struggled' last year to the tune of a 2.56 GAA and a .912 save percentage while the Blues in front of him seemed to follow the Stanley Cup hangover template to a tee. With a refreshed and younger roster, expect the Blues to once again contend for the West crown (both in the regular season and the playoffs). Binnington shouldn't see much competition from the rookie Ville Husso either, and despite the shelling at the hands of the Colorado Avalanche, should provide reliable cap league value whether you are looking for ratios or volume.
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All statistics are all pulled from FrozenTools, and all contract info from Capfriendly. Follow me on Twitter @alexdmaclean.
Stay safe!
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Previous Capped Articles:
Cheap producers to grab in cap leagues
If you're looking for other options to improve your fantasy team or cap situation, you can find all of the offseason buy/sell articles in order here.