Daily Fantasy Saturday: Stack Your Habs
Stephen Dotzel
2021-01-23
Coming into this season we knew it was going to be one unlike any other, and thus far that is holding true. To my count there has been five games postponed through the first ten days, with more on tap thanks to the situation in Carolina. In addition to games being postponed, you also have individual players being placed on the COVID list, sometimes just hours before a game like Mackenzie Blackwood was on Thursday. Of course, the big news in the fantasy world this week was the addition of Alex Ovechkin to the list. Keeping up with the constant news and changes is a must this year, for any form of fantasy. While losing Ovechkin for any extended period of time could be a major blow to your season long team, in daily fantasy we can use this to our advantage.
The absence of a player like Ovechkin, or even Evgeny Kuznetsov, has an obvious ripple effect. Ovechkin's spot on the top line needs to be filled, as does Kuznetsov's second-line center role. In addition, two new faces will have to be added to the team's top power-play unit as both players have been staples there. Perhaps the biggest beneficiary of this situation in Washington will be Jakub Vrana, who will now see PP1 time and has been moved to the top line in the team's latest practice. The fantasy sites will either be slow to adjust to this change, or simply not adjust at all. This creates a situation where a player like Vrana is severely underpriced for his new role.
To illustrate this, I'll give an example from Friday night's DraftKings slate. Alex Ovechkin is priced at $8,300 for a game he is not going to play while Vrana is priced at just $4,800. Now you certainly can't expect Vrana to just step in and give the same type of production Ovechkin does (he can in a small sample which this is), but for $3,600 less there is way too much value there to ignore. On this same slate Luke Kunin is priced at $5,000. While I think Kunin is a fine player, if given the option of playing him and his second line, non-power play role on the road against the Dallas Stars OR Vrana on the top line, top power-play unit at home against the Buffalo Sabres for $200 cheaper – I think the choice is obvious.
My point being, yes COVID is making this season difficult. However, it also creates opportunities that we may not have come across too often during other years. Whenever you hear of a player missing time because of COVID, or any reason really, think through the ripple effect that absence will have on their team and look to target players who all of a sudden will see more opportunity than what is reflected in their price.
Now let's take a look at tonight's games. Unfortunately, what was already a small slate has gotten even smaller with the postponement of the Carolina-Florida game. That only leaves four games left. But we don't make the schedule, so we have to work with what we've got. Here are some suggestions on how to handle this slate.
All players and prices are from DraftKings Main Slate (7 pm EST)
Top Options – High Owned
WPG1 – Mark Scheifele ($7,200), Blake Wheeler ($6,200), Kyle Connor ($7,600)
Winnipeg and Ottawa are set for their third meeting in the last five days tonight. Winnipeg has won both of the previous two games scoring four goals in each, while the above trio has combined for four goals and six assists. On Thursday's slate, they were the highest owned line with each player's ownership in the 20-30% range. With less games tonight to choose from, I'd expect these numbers to be matched at a minimum, and likely will come in higher. With ownership percentages that high in a sport as unpredictable as hockey can be on a nightly basis, there is merit to looking elsewhere in tournaments if you can stomach it. Don't get me wrong, this is the best spot on the slate, but everyone else knows that too.
MTL – Brendan Gallagher ($5,800), Tyler Toffoli ($5,100)
Another set of teams playing for the third time this week is Montreal and Vancouver. The first two meetings have been high scoring affairs with 21(!!) combined goals. This coupled with the reduced player pool due to the small slate leads me to believe Gallagher and Toffoli will lead the way in terms of ownership. Toffoli has a whopping five goals and 85 DraftKings points on his own in these two games. Gallagher has been much quieter with just one goal, but he typically produces the shot volume we look for in fantasy and thus the ownership that comes with that. I think both are fine plays again tonight but I like the idea of mixing in a few of the Canadiens who may go more under the radar. Tomas Tatar ($5,900), Joel Armia ($3,100, double check he's in the lineup), and the entire second line of Nick Suzuki ($5,700), Josh Anderson ($5,300), and Jonathan Drouin ($4,500) should all come in at half the ownership of Gallagher and Toffoli and make for great tournament plays.
STL – Mike Hoffman ($4,000)
As I mentioned in my column last week, Hoffman has always been a solid daily fantasy target as a one off because of his propensity to shoot the puck and make things happen on his own. Thus far in St. Louis Hoffman hasn't been shooting quite as often with just five shots through three games, but he does have a goal. His price tag, as it usually is, is still too cheap which usually puts him among the higher owned players on a slate. Regardless, I like the idea of working Hoffman into lineups as a way to get some exposure to the Blues who are playing a Kings' team that has allowed at least three goals in all four games this season. You can pair him with Robert Thomas ($3,000) and/or Vince Dunn ($3,000) to get a very affordable mini stack who share even strength and power play time together.
Top Options – Low Owned
MTL2 – See above for my thoughts on Montreal but I will add here that it should help all Canadiens that Vancouver could be without defenseman Alex Edler, Travis Hamonic, and Jalen Chatfield for tonight's game, leaving them incredibly thin on the blue line.
WPG2/PP2 – Paul Stastny ($4,600), Nikolaj Ehlers ($5,600), Andrew Copp ($3,900), Neal Pionk ($5,100), Ville Heinola ($2,700)
I touched on the Winnipeg top line already, but the second line has had some recent success as well and will garner a fraction of the ownership. Ehlers is the best play of the group as a standalone, as he has scored in each of the prior two games against Ottawa and is most likely to score among this line regardless. However, Copp assisted on both of those goals and Stastny racked up five shots on Thursday. Pairing Ehlers with one of these two or with Pionk or Heinola, who he shares power play minutes with, is a nice way to get some Winnipeg exposure outside of the top line.
BOS1 – Patrice Bergeron ($7,900), Brad Marchand ($7,400), Jake DeBrusk ($4,600)
This Boston-Philadelphia game is the least exciting of the four from a fantasy perspective and with that should come some of the lowest ownership. The Boston top line is certainly missing David Pastrnak, but of course guys like Bergeron and Marchand are no slouches. For whatever reason, Philadelphia is a team that struggled on the road last season. They allowed 121 goals last year in 34 away games as compared to just 70 goals in 35 home games. With the Flyers visiting the TD Garden, this could be a sneaky spot for the Bruins top line to awake from their early season slumber and nobody is going to be rostering them with their sky-high price tags.
Other Stacking Options to Consider
STL2/PP1 – Brayden Schenn ($4,800), Jaden Schwartz ($5,000), Jordan Kyrou ($3,300), Torey Krug ($5,600)
VAN1/PP1 – Elias Pettersson ($6,000), JT Miller ($5,700), Brock Boeser ($5,500), Quinn Hughes ($5,800)
Top Value Options for Filling Out Lineups
C – Jesperi Kotkaniemi ($3,600), Gabriel Vilardi ($3,300), Adam Lowry ($3,100), Adam Gaudette ($2,800)
W – Mike Hoffman ($4,000), James van Riemsdyk ($3,600), Joel Armia ($3,100), Evgenii Dadonov ($3,100)
D – Justin Faulk ($4,000), Ben Chiarot ($3,400), Erik Gustafsson ($2,800), Ville Heinola ($2,700)
Goalie Picks
Connor Hellebuyck ($8,200)
Jordan Binnington ($8,400)
Carey Price ($8,000)
Tuukka Rask ($7,800)
Matt Murray ($7,200) – Leverage against WPG ownership
Be sure to double check your lineups before lock for any last-minute scratches or goalie changes, especially this year with the COVID protocols. If you follow me on Twitter @SteveDotzel you can subscribe to my "DFS-NHL" list which is comprised of several team beat writers tweeting the most recent news in real-time. You can also reach out to me on Twitter and I'll do my best to answer any questions I can. Hope to see you on top of the leaderboards!