Saturday’s NHL Picks: Flying High

Flip Livingstone

2021-01-23

Hockey heads, puck pundits, and degenerate gamblers rejoice, your boy is back for a third season of Saturday picks for Dobber Hockey. If you've been following along and making some cash here and there, much love and props for the support. Last year was a bit of a rocky ride as it pertains to my Gold Picks especially, but I really appreciate the support big time and I am fired up for an NHL campaign that has already proven to be both interesting and tricky to navigate from a betting perspective.

The COVID-19 impact on lineups on a nightly basis is a very real thing to consider when it comes to laying wagers, and it will continue to be all season long. That level of unpredictability is never a good thing in the gambling world, so remember that when it comes to sprinkling bets and setting lineups daily.

With the unpredictability of what I mentioned above coupled with the new divisional alignments and a shortened season, this year is shaping up to be like no other as it pertains to the NHL betting world – but there is obviously still money to be made.

Strap on your boots, get those deposits into the ol' account and let's get this paper. Welcome back, enjoy the ride and be sure to follow along on Twitter @FlipLivingstone and @Flips_Picks for more. Good luck!

2019-2020 record

Gold: 5-14 

Silver: 10-8-1

Bronze: 11-8

Side bets: 37-29

Overall total record: 63-59-1

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Gold Pick
Philadelphia Flyers @ Boston Bruins – Pick: Flyers

Hate it or love it, at the very least the realignment of the NHL's divisions has provided the opportunity to watch some tantalizing matchups at a high frequency – this is one of those matchups. Philadelphia is an exciting dark horse team, Boston is a perennial contender, and this rivalry is alive and well.

Now, as many of you likely already know, being a Maple Leafs fan I get easily triggered by even the site of a Bruins logo, and I never miss the chance to rub in a Boston loss. But all the anger, tears, and bias aside, I legitimately think the team no longer has the talent to get it done, especially in a division of killers the NHL has put together in the East. Bottom line: they aren't deep enough, even with a healthy David Pastrnak.

It is noted the Bruins are fresh off the heels of a tight 5-4 shootout win over Philly just two nights back, but the Flyers play well in bounce-back situations, are a strong road squad, and own a 5-2 record against Boston over their last seven. I like those trends to continue tonight.

Flyers put up a few early goals and roll in this one, my Gold Pick of the week.

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Silver Pick
LA Kings @ St. Louis Blues – Pick: Blues

A new year and another season betting heavy against the Los Angeles Kings, basically whomever they go up against. Look, the Kings had their time in the spotlight with two Cups in three seasons in the early 2010s, but thanks to poor roster and salary cap management, those days are long gone. No disrespect to guys like Adrian Kempe, Alex Iafallo, and Blake Lizotte (three guys who now find themselves playing top-six minutes), but that is just not going to cut it.

Before we get too hasty here and start throwing down pick slips on St. Louis, I'll be honest, the Blues have also taken a step back. Having their offensive catalyst and top goal-scorer Vladimir Tarasenko out for the foreseeable future is obviously a huge blow, but the team still boasts a balanced attack up-front and a big, strong and skilled top-four group of blue-liners.

Back to business with some numbers you want to know: The Kings are a poor road team overall and have recent struggles when visiting The Gateway City, winning only four of their last 13 contests at Enterprise Center. Let's not overthink this one, the much better team playing on home ice gets the two points and earns me my first Silver Pick win of the year. Hammer time.

Bronze Pick
Montreal Canadiens @ Vancouver Canucks (Over/Under) – Pick: Over 6.5

As the degenerate saying goes: "Overs never die." While the validity of that statement is still up for debate, there's no denying the recent head-to-head stats for these two clubs point in the direction of a high-scoring tilt. Aside from the fact that the Canadiens are off to a scorching-hot start and lead the entire NHL with 24 tallies, the Canucks are loaded with young offensive weapons (even if some are struggling right now, cough, Elias Pettersson, cough) that can light up the scoreboard in a matter of seconds.

Not to mention, the last three meetings between these North Division rivals – no, sorry, not giving the corporate shout out – have been the definition of barn burners. Over nine goals per game on average and a total of 28 tallies in just 180 minutes of hockey obviously has me heavily leaning to an Over bet here.

The Canucks were embarrassed on home ice to the tune of a 7-3 smackdown only two nights ago by this very same Montreal team, so I fully expect a better effort from Vancouver and a much closer contest overall. However, with that said, aside from the above numbers I am still loving this spot for a high-scoring game. This one could easily end up a 4-3 or 5-2 game by the end of the second frame, especially if a couple slumping Canucks rise from their early-season slumber, so jump on this while the number is still favorable.

Habs-Nucks goes over the total, good for my Bronze Pick of the week.

Side Bets

Montreal Canadiens @ Vancouver Canucks – Pick: Canucks

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Columbus Blue Jackets – Pick: Lightning

Ottawa Senators @ Winnipeg Jets (Over/Under 6.5) – Pick: Over

Flip Livingstone is a former NHL writer for theScore with past experience at such outlets as Narcity Media, Postmedia, and Hockey Night in Canada. You can follow him on Twitter @FlipLivingstone and @Flips_Picks.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Mar 28 - 19:03 OTT vs CHI
Mar 28 - 19:03 TOR vs WSH
Mar 28 - 19:03 MTL vs PHI
Mar 28 - 19:03 PIT vs CBJ
Mar 28 - 19:03 FLA vs NYI
Mar 28 - 19:03 CAR vs DET
Mar 28 - 20:03 MIN vs S.J
Mar 28 - 20:03 STL vs CGY
Mar 28 - 20:03 WPG vs VGK
Mar 28 - 21:03 EDM vs L.A
Mar 28 - 21:03 COL vs NYR
Mar 28 - 22:03 SEA vs ANA
Mar 28 - 22:03 VAN vs DAL
Mar 28 - 22:03 ARI vs NSH

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
TAGE THOMPSON BUF
JJ PETERKA BUF
ANTHONY DUCLAIR T.B
JORDAN GREENWAY BUF
JURAJ SLAFKOVSKY MTL

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
ALEKSEI KOLOSOV PHI
JOONAS KORPISALO OTT
KAREL VEJMELKA ARI
UKKO-PEKKA LUUKKONEN BUF
JUSTUS ANNUNEN COL

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency MTL Players
31.4 NICK SUZUKI JURAJ SLAFKOVSKY COLE CAUFIELD
20.1 ALEX NEWHOOK BRENDAN GALLAGHER JOEL ARMIA
16.5 JESSE YLONEN JAKE EVANS JOSH ANDERSON

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