Ramblings – Thoughts on Goalies, Hoffman, Suter, Lafreniere, Byram, Kyrou, Puljujarvi and lots more (Jan 25)
Dobber
2021-01-25
I thought that this season would be a very difficult one to navigate through in fantasy hockey. I even considered punting one of my three dynasty/keeper leagues for this year and just build for a big 2021-22 (a friend of mine actually did/is doing that). Just a few games in and it's tougher than I thought, and I'm sure most of you are with me. With Covid protocols (Ovechkin? Really?) coming at you with no warning, and players moving in and out of the lineup seconds before the game, it's a lot to stay on top of. And you can be the king of staying on top of roster moves…and you'll still miss some. The Taxi Squad is just super-handy, and with the rebuilding teams especially – they're trying different things with their lineup. Dylan Cozens scratched? Lucas Wallmark? Ryan Graves?
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I thought Ilya Sorokin would come in and make the same splash as Igor Shesterkin. So far, it would appear that I was wrong. I figured he would show enough this season that by next year he would split the starts equally with Semyon Varlamov, primarily spurred on by a Varlamov injury that seems to happen often. But Varlamov is stepping up his game when pressed – back-to-back shutouts in his first two starts, just one goal allowed in Start 3. While Sorokin coughs up five goals in his debut. On Sunday, Sorokin was solid. Give him time.
It's early, but my goalie predictions are off to a rocky start. This has been my strength over the years – really just evaluating talent and properly balancing that with opportunity as well as the talent of what is above him on the depth chart. Sorokin is in a good spot in terms of timing, with Varlamov's contract up after the 2022-23 season.
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My other big call – Collin Delia – isn't doing so shit-hot either. Then again, all Chicago goaltenders began poorly. Delia was the first goalie on the team to get a second start, so that speaks to who the coach was leaning towards. But he blew it. So the Coach Jeremy Colliton turned to Kevin Lankinen…who gave up five goals. In the first four games, Chicago had given up (in order): five goals, five goals, five goals and five goals.
But Lankinen's five goals took an extra five minutes (overtime), so he got another start. And he won. He got the next start Sunday – and won again. Kevin Lankinen, 25, is now 2-0-1, with a 2.63 GAA and 0.909 SV%. The job is his for now. And with the Chicago offense figuring it out, he makes for a good add. I still lean Delia long-term, because I don't drastically shift my opinion based on two games, but Lankinen is absolutely the guy who will get most of the starts over the next 10 games. Last year in the AHL, Lankinen had seized the Rockford job over the first six weeks. But then Delia fantastic after mid-November while Lankinen stumbled. I suspect they'll be back and forth throughout the year. The only thing we can be sure of with Chicago goaltending is that Malcolm Subban is weak link and will never be a fantasy option. I think.
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Lankinen was helped along by Chicago's offense. In the first three games, with Subban and Delia in net, the Blackhawks scored a whopping five goals. In the next three games, with Lankinen between the pipes, the Hawks tallied 14.
The big shocker on Sunday was Pius Suter, who not only scored his first NHL goal – but his second and third as well. The diminutive (5-9) forward made the team thanks to all the injuries and the team's desperation to be cap compliant. Otherwise, he was probably looking at a year of AHL service time, or at least a partial year there. But he made the big club and was given a prominent role. He was never the shooter that Dominik Kubalik is, but he's a potential top-sixer. I just didn't see too much from him in this first year. Things were moving along that route, too. In the first five games he had just an assist and was a minus-6 despite seeing a lot of time with Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat. That line has played better together with every game, and good on the coach for sticking with it. Again, as with Lankinen, I only like Suter for the short term, with hope for something longer. Because Carl Soderberg is now back in the lineup and Jonathan Toews could return too (still zero word on when, and the team seems to be bracing for his absence lasting months and not weeks). They actually scratched Lucas Wallmark, who had three points in his last two games, to make room for Soderberg. And if Suter went pointless yet again, then he would probably have been scratched next game. But Suter got the hatty, and bought himself some more time on that line. That's why I suggest caution.
Chicago's roster, for fantasy purposes, was a hot mess in the preseason and it hasn't cleaned up any after five games. Other than Kane and DeBrincat, you can't rely on anyone. I had planned to suggest Wallmark as a sleeper fantasy option in these Ramblings…and suddenly he gets scratched. So lots of high risk/high reward short-term options here.
Another one is Philipp Kurashev. The 21-year-old is on the team a full season earlier than I expected, and this one is due to the Alex Nylander injury. He plays with Dylan Strome and Dominik Kubalik. Strome has a couple of volume shooters on his wing. Kurashev has at least a shot on goal in every game so far, while we all know how much Kubalik likes to shoot – he has 20 of them in his last five games. Strome has just one ES assist so far, but as Kubalik finds his stride that number should increase.
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Pushed out of his job by a younger top goaltender, Marc-Andre Fleury seems to be at his best. Undefeated with just three goals allowed in three games. And Sunday he picked up his first shutout of the season. So far Vegas is taking turns with the goalie starts, and I think this will continue as long as the team keeps winning. Why fix what ain't broke? Fleury has been the superior goalie so far though. For fantasy purposes, both great goaltenders are worth less than they should because they cannibalize each other's starts.
Of note in that game – Shea Theodore finally pushed Alex Pietrangelo out of the top PP unit. Vegas is stopping pucks, but not really scoring and this is one move designed to change that.
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Taylor Hall was taken off the Jack Eichel line and played with Eric Staal late in the Buffalo game. The line had been toyed with in other ways, with Victor Olofsson taken off the line at times as well. And looking at our new line combo page (I'm actually looking at them via our fantasy-driven box scores, but there are many ways to find them, such as player profiles too) – the most effective line was when Hall played with Sam Reinhart and Eichel, followed by Reinhart, Eichel and Olofsson. The Staal, Hall and Kyle Okposo line was the least effective of the five most-used lines at even strength. For effectiveness, I am referring to the Chances-For/Chances-Against ratio that we now have in our line combos.
Hall has six points in six games, but has been shut out for three straight now, despite a whopping 15 shots in those three games.
Jack Eichel leads the league in total shots without scoring a goal. He has 23 shots on net with a goose egg to show for it.
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Other big shooters with nothing to show for it:
Quinn Hughes: 22 SOG
Roman Josi: 19 SOG
Rasmus Dahlin: 19 SOG
Jeff Skinner: 18 SOG
Drake Batherson: 18 SOG
Ryan Ellis: 17 SOG
Rickard Rakell: 17 SOG
Jesse Puljujarvi: 16 SOG
Brandon Montour: 15 SOG
Kris Letang: 15 SOG
And Nikita Gusev, Ilya Mikheyev and Seth Jones with 14 SOG each and no goals.
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Justin Schultz picked up his first two points as a Capital and it took his sixth game to get there. The key? Dmitry Orlov on COVID protocol. Schultz was paired up with Carlson on Sunday. His ice time went up by over four minutes and his five SOG exceeded the four SOG that he had in the five prior games combined.
Vitek Vanecek stopped 45 of 48 shots. He's been the better of the two goalies and with Ilya Samsonov out (COVID protocol), he'll keep getting the starts.
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Jimmy Vesey got a shot with the big boys on Sunday, lining up with Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews. The line was very ineffective, giving up eight shot attempts while managing just three of their own. Zach Hyman replaced Vesey by the end and in less than half the time – the line with Hyman on it had four shot attempts and gave up just one.
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With his goal Sunday, Jack Hughes has seven points in five games so far. He's still struggling at the faceoff dot, but the Hughes we expected last year has arrived. The key seems to be placing him on a line with hard workers who can dig out the puck (Yegor Sharangovich and Kyle Palmieri). I don't believe he gets 56 points this year (point-per-game), but the way he's looking I would think 40 is in the cards. I had him for 33 in the Guide, and obviously now feel he's definitely going to exceed that by quite a margin.
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Speaking of first overall picks, Alexis Lafreniere is now pointless in five games. Very odd, considering he is such a talent and he's playing with Artemi Panarin and Ryan Strome. Or at least he was before Sunday. On Sunday he was swapped to the Mika Zibanejad – Chris Kreider line. Either line is pretty awesome. Do I think Lafreniere will have a 'bust' of a rookie season, the way Kaapo Kakko did? No. But I didn't think he'd start pointless in five games, either. People point to Lafreniere's ice time and how it's several minutes more than Kakko's each game. But last year in the first five games, Kakko's ice time was almost exactly the same as Lafreniere's – and Kakko actually had a goal. The pressure is on Lafreniere right now, and I wonder if he shouldn't be moved to the third line the way I have it set up in my Fantasy Guide. A "Kid Line" with Lafreniere – Filip Chytil – Kakko. Think about it. The Panarin line draws the top defensive unit. The Zibanejad line draws the elite players. What's left to face the Kid Line? And as a bonus, Kakko gets an upgrade in linemates. Dobber for Coach!
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Adrian Kempe has a four-game points streak going. This is his BT season (Breakout Threshold), and it's always nice to see players performing according to our (secret) plan. He's playing with Anze Kopitar and Alex Iafallo.
Jordan Kyrou, who is averaging 13 minutes per game and not even a minute per game of PP time, now has six points in six games. He's playing with Jaden Schwartz and Braden Schenn. His success there is keeping Robert Thomas on the third line. But the Blues are trying to make that line a third threat by including Mike Hoffman on it. The weak link is Tyler Bozak, and I think they should give Oskar Sundqvist a shot there instead. Or Ivan Barbashev, and move Thomas to center. Anyway, I digress. Kyrou is producing well with little ice time, and if he can keep it going then the ice time will come.
Speaking of Hoffman, I wonder how he feels about the cut in his ice time. Nearly three minutes per game down versus last year, which was a full minute below the year prior. His PP time is down a buck-twenty per game too. I know it would be selling low right now, but part of me thinks the sell-high window is still kind of open. After two great years and then lots of hype in the summer, I think some of that is still sticking and you can still get a good return on him.
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Apologies for not letting you know that I dropped Ryan Donato in my one league. Because it's like giving you a heads-up that he's about to have a two-point game right after.
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Bowen Byram was only 'supposed' to play the six games this year as a trial. It keeps him under contract that extra year, but keeps him playing a few games until junior hockey opens up. That's how I had it, and that's how the Colorado insiders had it. But he's just too good. Already at three games, he's worked his way up to 18:32 of ice time and now on the second pairing with Sam Girard. Byram was also put out in the final minutes of a 6-on-5 attack. I'd look for him to stick for the duration now.
This is bad new for owners of Ryan Graves. Very bad news. He thrived last year because the Avs didn't have any other options for that role. He was a prospect who was stumbling, with dwindling hopes of becoming a steady full-time NHLer. And then last year happened where he played with Cale Makar, the second coming. Now it would see that Byram has taken his job. And because Byram is 10 times better than Graves, methinks Graves is in trouble.
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If you tuned in at the 53-minute mark of the Edmonton-Winnipeg game, you would have been just in time to see the Jets tie it 2-2. A minute later, they took the lead. Two minutes after that, the Oilers tied it. And with 0.5 seconds remaining, Leon Draisaitl scored for the win. Rollercoaster!
Nikolaj Ehlers, who scored and was arguably Winnipeg's top player, is off to a blazing start with seven points in six games. What I like the most about this is that he's doing it without playing with any top guns, nor is he getting these on the power play. If he stays healthy – I think this is the big year we've been waiting on.
Jesse Puljujarvi had a coming out party. Not in terms of production, although he did pick up a point. He had six shots on goal, and saw 17:33 of ice time. From what I could find, that marks the fourth-highest ice time of his career and his highest TOI since 2017 in the NHL. But he also played with Connor McDavid and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and looked good doing it. He was a big part of that game-winning goal in the final second of play, too.
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Frozen Tools Announcement in case you missed it last week: We have new and improved line combos that are in-game, updated every 15 minutes during the game. Bookmark it here.
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See you next Monday.