Eastern Edge: Buy low and sell high

Brennan Des

2021-01-26

In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll highlight players that you might be able to acquire at low cost, and others that you may be able to offload for a nice profit. As they say, buy low and sell high!

 

Buy Low

Rasmus Dahlin

The 20-year-old defenseman hasn't registered a point through his first six games of the season. As I mentioned in last week's article, the beginning of a new season isolates and magnifies short stretches of play that would normally get lost over the course of a full year. Some may panic when they see that Dahlin hasn't registered a single point through six whole games. However, more experienced managers understand that such dry spells aren't out of the ordinary for defenseman. Last season, Dahlin experienced a stretch of six games without a point and another stretch of five games without a point – yet he still managed to score at a 56-point pace overall. Since those scoreless streaks happened in the middle of the season, they were insulated by production across other games. This season, there's nothing to offset Dahlin's early scoring struggles, making his lack of production more striking.

Despite Dahlin's lack of production so far, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about his fantasy outlook. First, he's averaging over three shots per game and currently sits seventh among defenseman in that category. Second, he maintains a prominent role on the man advantage, seeing 63-percent of the team's total power-play time through six games. Finally, thanks to Victor Olofsson, Dylan Cozens, Eric Staal and Taylor Hall, the level of offensive talent across Buffalo's forward group is the highest it's been in recent years. Dahlin is an incredibly talented defenseman in an environment conducive to scoring. The points will come soon.

Other potential targets: Ryan Pulock, P.K. Subban, Nikita Gusev, Chris Kreider

 

Sell High

Patric Hornqvist

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Considering the Panthers have played just two games, Hornqvist's fantasy value probably hasn't increased dramatically since the offseason. Regardless, his present value is likely inflated after he tallied four points in his first two appearances with the Panthers. It's worth noting that both of Florida's games were played against Chicago – a team that has struggled to keep the puck out of their net so far in 2021.

I think a change in surroundings plays such an interesting role in how we evaluate players. There's an element of mystery when a player joins a new team. There's so much uncertainty about a player's fantasy outlook when he's playing beside new line mates and under the supervision of a new coach. It's interesting because we all have different ways of explaining that uncertainty. Some may predict a first line role for Hornqvist throughout his time in Florida, believing that to be a significant upgrade from last year in Pittsburgh, when he spent significant time outside the top-six. In contrast, others may struggle with the idea of Hornqvist maintaining a prominent role in Florida considering he's 34 years old. The beauty is, every explanation and projection still seems plausible at this point because we still don't have concrete evidence for one particular view. It's so early in the season, no one has been proven right or wrong just yet. As such, there's probably someone in your league holding onto the idea that Hornqvist is in for a strong showing this year and their belief may have been reinforced by his impressive start. I recommend finding this person and offloading Hornqvist for a decent return.

In each of Florida's first two games this year, Hornqvist has seen roughly 14 minutes of ice time. While the sample size is obviously small, I think 14 to 15 minutes of ice-time per game is a fair expectation going forward. However, it's relatively rare for players to put up lofty point totals when they're only seeing 14 to 15 minutes of action a night. It helps that many of those minutes are being played with the man advantage, as he's seen roughly 63-percent of the team's total power-play time so far. However, he saw a similar share of power-play time in Pittsburgh as a member of the Penguins' top unit. His power-play point totals throughout his time in Pittsburgh are underwhelming when you consider he was playing alongside offensive stars like Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang,

Florida has capitalized on three of its eight power-play opportunities so far and Hornqvist has registered a point on all three of those power-play goals. I don't see Hornqvist as the offensive catalyst on a top power-play unit with the offensive abilities of Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau and Keith Yandle, so I don't think he'll factor into as many goals going forward. More importantly, the team's success rate on the power play is inflated after two games against the defensively challenged Blackhawks. That should come back down to earth after a few games against other teams in the division.To sum it all up, I think Hornqvist has shown us in recent years that he's a 45 to 50-point player. In my opinion, moving to Florida doesn't significantly changes his fantasy outlook. If someone in your league is overvaluing Hornqvist based on two good games against a weak opponent, you'd be wise to trade him. I know it's early, but now seems like the perfect time to sell high if you can.

 

Other potential options: Tyler Toffoli, Kevin Hayes (wait until Sean Couturier is close to returning from injury before trading Hayes away)

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