Top 10 Surprising Fast Starts

Tom Collins

2021-02-01

Every season begins with a few players who exceed all expectations.

The trick is determining which players can keep it up and which ones are flashes in the pan. Last season saw J.T. Miller and Travis Konecny get off to hot starts and keep it up, while Evander Kane and Nick Schmaltz slowed down.

It's no surprise to see names like Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, John Carlson and Nathan MacKinnon ripping up the scoreboard. But what about some of those players whom we didn't expect to be so awesome this early?

For the record, we're looking at 10 players who have been consistently productive this season, and not players whose numbers look impressive because of a game or two. Tomas Hertl, for example, had six points in his first three games, but just one in the last five.

10. Andrew Copp

While much talk has been focusing on the start of linemate Nikolaj Ehlers (who has 11 points in eight games), the 26-year-old Copp is off to a hot start of his own with nine points in eight games. Copp's ice time and shooting percentage are pretty much on par with normal, but he is at career highs for offensive zone starts and IPP (which measures how many points a player has on goals that were scored when he was on the ice). How long will this last? Tough to say since the lines will switch once Pierre-Luc Dubois can start suiting up for games. Copp may stay on the second line with Dubois and Ehlers, but it's also possible Paul Stastny moves to the wing and bumps Copp down to the third line.

9. Darnell Nurse

Going into Sunday's action, the top-ranked defenseman for Yahoo leagues was Cale Makar (no surprise there). Second was Darnell Nurse, who has seven points in 10 games before Sunday night's tilt against Ottawa. I know plus/minus isn't everyone's favourite stat, but his plus-five is helping with his ranking. So were his 23 shots (11th in the league) and 22 hits (eighth). Nurse and Justin Faulk were the only two defensemen with at least 22 hits and shots. (Side note, Faulk is the fifth-ranked defenseman in Yahoo pools because of his peripherals, so he might be worth looking into). Nurse did take over the top power-play for a couple of games with Tyson Barrie struggling, so there could be more opportunities for Nurse this season.

8. Noah Dobson

I could have put Ty Smith in this spot, but much has been written about Smith already and Dobson deserves some love. He's still underrated (rostered in 24 per cent of Yahoo leagues and owned in 60 per cent of Fantrax leagues), but there are plenty of reasons to believe he can continue his hot start. Dobson has five points in nine games to go along with 16 shots, nine hits, three power-play points and 14 blocked shots. So why the reason for optimism? He's averaging about 19 minutes of ice time per night. That's an increase of almost six minutes per night from his 13:17 average a year ago. He's also on the top power-play unit, averaging 4:12 with the man advantage.

7. Anze Kopitar

There's an old Toby Keith song that has the line "I'm not as good as I once was, but I'm as good once, as I ever was." In hockey terms, that pretty much means that an over-the-hill veteran may have a few good nights left in them, but the consistency is no longer there. We've been here before with Kopitar. After a few disappointing seasons, he had 92 points in 82 games in 2017-18. Then he went back to disappointing. This year, he is back up to over a point-per-game, with one goal and 11 assists in eight games. His ice time is up two minutes per night from last year, but it's on the power-play where he's doing the most damage. His seven power-play points were second in the league going into Sunday's action.

6. Jordan Kyrou

Kyrou often gets overlooked as many fantasy general managers believe Robert Thomas is the must-own in St. Louis, but there's a lot to like about Kyrou's season so far this year. Going into Sunday night's game, his ice time was up two minutes a night from a year ago, and thanks to his hot start, he's starting to get some power-play time (after averaging 20 seconds a night in the first three games, he averaged 1:17 in the next five games). His shooting percentage of 21.7 per cent was high, but he was also averaging almost three shots a game, a significant increase from his average of 1.39 a season ago. It also helps that his most frequent linemates are Brayden Schenn and Jaden Schwartz. All this led to five goals and 10 points in Kyrou's first eight games. He's going to come back down to earth a little bit, but there are plenty of reasons to believe to be optimistic for the rest of the season.  

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5. Carter Verhaeghe

I'm in a deep dynasty league, and a year ago, I drafted Verhaeghe after he made the Lightning's roster. The guy was a bit of a bust in my league setup (less than 10 minutes a night, no peripherals and 13 points in 52 games). Even though we keep 25 players plus 15 minor leaguers, he was an easy drop. When another GM drafted him this season, I almost sent a warning about how disappointing Verhaeghe is. So of course, Florida lines him up in a top-six role alongside Aleksander Barkov, plays him almost 18 minutes per night and gives him second-unit power-play time. Verhaeghe has responded with four goals and six points in five games.

4. Jack Hughes

The headlines should be reading "Former bust breaks through," but that would not be a fair assessment as you can't call Hughes a bust. Sure, he struggled in his rookie season, but he spent the offseason working on getting stronger to better compete in the NHL (reports had him putting on 14 pounds of muscle). It's paid off as Hughes has eight points in nine games to go along with a plus-two, 19 shots and two power-play points. He's averaging about 20 minutes a game, a huge increase from last year's 15 minutes per night. This is another example of how not to rush to judgement on a player based on his first couple of seasons, but if we haven't learned our lesson after Nathan MacKinnon, Dylan Strome, Taylor Hall, Tyler Seguin, etc., then we never will. Just keep this advice in mind for next year about Alexis Lafreniere.

3. Kevin Lankinen

It didn't take long for third-stringer Lankinen to steal the starter's job in Chicago. Each of the three netminders (including Malcolm Subban and Collin Delia) gave up five goals in their first start, but Lankinen is the only one to have settled down after that. He's only given up seven goals in his last five games and has a record of 3-1-2 this season. Sure, two of his wins came against Detroit, but he looked good against Nashville and Columbus. The Hawks don't play on back-to-back nights until Feb. 19-20, so it's conceivable that Lankinen gets six or seven of the next nine Hawks games.

2. Joel Eriksson Ek

JEE is finally getting some of the usage that many fantasy general managers wanted for years, so it's vindication that it's paying off. The Wild used to bury their young talent, giving them little even-strength time and little power-play time in favour of veterans. This year, the Wild have taken a different tact, giving the youngsters a chance to flourish. Before Sunday night's game, the team's top five even-strength ice time per game leaders were Kirill Kaprizov, Jordan Greenway, Zach Parise, Kevin Fiala and Eriksson Ek. Parise is the only one who has seen his 25th birthday. As well, JEE's power-play usage sat at 1:37 per game before Sunday, which is low but still miles ahead of the four seconds per game he averaged last year. The extra ice time also means he's shooting the puck more often (he's at three shots per night, almost twice as high as a year ago). With all these favourable usages, it's no wonder that he had five goals and seven points in his first nine games.

1. Joe Pavelski

Going into Sunday's action, Pavelski's four power-play goals were tied for the league lead, and his eight power-play points had no equal. Sunday night was the first time this season he failed to pick up a point, but 10 points in six games is still an unbelievable stat (last year it took him 19 games to pick up 10 points). Pavelski has benefitted from all the injuries to the team's top stars. His average ice time is at 20:28 per night, which is his highest since 2011-12. It's also more than three minutes per night higher than a year ago, thanks to an extra three minutes in power-play time per game. Pavelski is going to continue to get a high number of minutes so don't be surprised if he continues his high pace all season.

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