Ramblings: Thornton update; Detroit players returning; Devils players not; Mete; Rakell – February 2

Michael Clifford

2021-02-02

Toronto injury update as both Nick Robertson and Joe Thornton were skating before practice on Monday, the former with a knee injury and the latter with a fractured rib. That Thornton is skating just 10 days after the rib fracture is a good sign, but I hope he doesn't rush this back, especially at his age.

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Jakub Vrana opened Washington's game on the fourth line on Monday night. He didn't play true fourth-line minutes but it's worth noting where the team sees him right now i.e. not a cornerstone.

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A significant update from Detroit with regards to players returning from COVID protocols:

 

 

Fabbri and Erne haven't played in over two weeks while the others were more recent, but it's good news for a Detroit team that has certainly been scuffling to open the season. It is not as if they were expected to make playoffs, but they look worse than Chicago, a feat that seemed impossible with both Toews and Dach out of the lineup.

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And another significant COVID update:

 

 

As of now, the team’s games are postponed through to the weekend. That means at least the next two games against Pittsburgh but that is a lot of players on the list. There may be more cancellations beyond.

Also, add Kappo Kakko to the list.

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Dmitry Orlov and Eric Cernak returned for the respective teams last night, and both guys may have fantasy value moving forward depending on their role. I suspect Cernak over Orlov but let's see how the Caps decide to use Chara in the near-term.

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The big boys showed up for Boston as Brad Marchand had a goal and an assist and David Pastrnak scored his first two goals of the season to give Boston a 5-3 win over Washington. Brandon Carlo had one and one with a pair of shots and a block in a very stellar fantasy performance.

Despite being demoted to the fourth line and playing fewer than 13 minutes, Jakub Vrana had a pair of assists. He will be a frustrating fantasy own for the balance of the season, it seems.

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The Habs washed the Canucks 6-2. Jeff Petry had a monster night with two goals and an assist while Nick Suzuki and Artturi Lehkonen both added a goal and an assist each. That gives Suzuki nine points in nine games on the year.

Braden Holtby faced 40 shots in this one so Vancouver will want to tighten up defensively for the rematch Tuesday night.

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Everybody on Tampa Bay's top line scored a goal while Yanni Gourde scored a pair in Tampa's 5-2 win over Nashville. That makes nine points in six games for Stamkos, so it appears missing Nikita Kucherov isn't hurting him too much just yet.

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Crosby tried the Michigan on his backhand and nearly succeeded:

 

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Staying on the blue line, Victor Mete was in the lineup for the first time this season, and not long after his trade request was made known.

The Habs should tread carefully here. Mete hasn't really exploded yet, but his play-driving impacts compare favourably to another young defenceman who has seen his stock rise considerably in the last 15 months (from Evolving Hockey):

 

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And while Girard has a decided edge in shot assists – passes leading to shots – he and Mete both have similar exit/entry percentages, at least from 2017-20 (from CJ Turtoro's viz):

 

 

 

This isn't to say that Mete is the next Sam Girard, but that there are enough indications here that a young defenceman with just two seasons under his belt is not someone to give up on just yet. (It is also a reason why I hated the Joel Edmundson signing but once the cow is milked you can't squirt the cream back up the udder so here we are.)

I have my doubts that Mete will turn into the top-pairing guy I envisioned him being but he certainly looks like a future second-pair guy, and those guys have value. Maybe I am just being jaded by the Sergachev/Drouin trade.

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Just something I found funny: heading into Monday night's games, the Habs were averaging over 3.4 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. The wrinkle here is they're shooting under 10 percent as a team, which is one of those things that stops you in your tracks if you know the context here. Teams typically max out around 9.5-10 percent and if the Habs were to stay at this shooting percentage, they would be the first team to score over 3.3 goals/60 at 5-on-5 through the regular season, and they would do it by avoiding unsustainably-high shooting percentages (over 10 percent). That mix of high goal scoring with low shooting percentages, due to volume, should worry teams that will be facing the Habs throughout the campaign.

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Heading into this season, from a curiosity standpoint, I wanted to see how home-ice advantage would work with no fans. Well, so far:

 

 

That is an unbelievable gap. A 61 percent win percentage for home teams would represent a stark deviation from the 55 percent that had been the norm (at least up until 2018). We are not even three weeks into the season so let's give it a lot more time to work itself out but this is something that is notable. A persistent 60-plus percent win rate should change how we approach the fantasy game, be it season-long or DFS.

But before we jump on the "omg HOME ICE!!!" train, I want to remind everyone that this may be luck-based, as away teams have had the adjusted expected goals edge at 5-on-5 (~51.3 to 48.7) so there could be a reversal of fortunes ahead. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds.

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The two worst teams by expected goals against per 60 minutes are in the Canadian division, three of the bottom-6 and four of the bottom-10. Over half the Canadian division is in the bottom-10 by expected goals against at 5-on-5, and by actual goals against, again we have three of the bottom-6 and four of the bottom-11. This just keeps getting better and better. It will honestly be the most fun I will have had watching hockey in a long, long time.

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Larry Brooks of the New York Post is reporting that Tony DeAngelo has played his last game for the New York Rangers. After the altercation this past weekend, his very lengthy history of misconduct towards teammates, and being waived on Sunday, this seemed like the eventual outcome. The only blank left to fill is whether or not another NHL team takes a chance on him. I don't think we've seen him play his last game in the NHL.

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I am getting to the point where I'm finding it hard to find fantasy value among the Anaheim skaters. I get that some leagues may differ because of contracts or categories, but only one forward is averaging over 17 minutes a game (Rakell) and he's under 18 minutes a game. They don't have a single forward in the top-50 of the league by individual expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Moving to the power play, they have drawn just 23 opportunities in 10 games – 2.3 PPOs per game is one of the lowest PPO rates in the league.

On the blue line, Hampus Lindholm leads the team with 16 shots in 10 games – a poor mark – and no defenceman is managing over 23 minutes a night. Jani Hakanpaa is probably the best defenceman to own on this blue line in multi-cat leagues and I bet you've never heard of him. That is how much of a wasteland this team is for offence.

Teams and owners will be in different situations but I don't see Anaheim getting any better any time soon. Los Angeles may not be much better but at least Kopitar plays a ton of minutes.

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Not for nothing but with DeAngelo gone, Adam Fox should be the lock PP1QB for the rest of the season and that is tremendous news for his fantasy value. He is already on a 50-point/82-game pace while averaging over two shots and two blocks per game. Now that the top PP minutes are his alone for the rest of the year, what's he going to do? An exciting time for Fox fantasy owners.

It should also help Jacob Trouba's fantasy value. His PP role had been tenuous with Fox/DeAngelo sometimes each taking for their own PP unit with Trouba on the outside looking in. That shouldn't be the case now, with Fox on one unit and Trouba on the second.

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St. Louis looks like a juggernaut right now. Their second line of Schwartz-Schenn-Kyrou has an expected goal share, and actual goal share, over 70 percent, according to Moneypuck. That is just an absurd level of production and they have been one of the best lines in the league this year. There is a reason Brayden Schenn and Jordan Kyrou over a point-per-game players each.

That doesn't even get to the top-line duo of O'Reilly-Perron that is scuffling a bit right now, but may get Vladimir Tarasenko back in the next month as he was seen skating in gear on Sunday. What the timeline is, we don't know, but that he was skating in January is a very good sign.

Suppose that second line persists in its excellent play, and O'Reilly-Perron add Tarasenko to the mix a month from now. How good is that team going to be? Scary thought.

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