Welcome to the first mailbag of 2021 and, accordingly, of the 2020-21 season. For new readers, this is a column where I answer your fantasy hockey questions while also giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it to me and as well as the details you should provide. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Question #1 (from Lincoln)

I'd like an audit of my activities this offseason.

The league is a Dynasty keeper (eight managers, 100 players each). Points only, except that goals by a defenseman are worth two points. Goalies get .125 for every save, lose a point for every GA, and have any assists or goals they get count as points. Each team starts 12F, 6D and 2G.

The moves I made were as follows:

First I traded Drake Batherson, a 4th and a 5th rounder and I got Jordan Kyrou, a 2nd rounder (15th overall; now Connor Zary) and a 3rd rounder (20th overall, now Yegor Chinakhov). For the second deal, I moved Neal Pionk, Filip Hronek and Seth Jones and received Johnny Gaudreau, Nicolaj Ehlers and Vitalii Abramov. I then flipped Ehlers Straight up for Rasmus Dahlin. For the next deal, I moved Connor Hellebuyck, Tony DeAngelo, Alex DeBrincat and Kieffer Bellows for Jack Eichel, Thomas Chabot, Evan Bouchard and Patric Hornqvist. I also traded Ilya Samsonov and Drew O'Connor for Ilya Sorokin and Connor Mackey. I then flipped Sorokin and a 5th and 6th rounder to the team who finished in last place for Drew Commesso plus first round picks in 2021 and 2022.

I worry that although I stockpiled top picks for 2021 and 2022, I may have chipped away too much at my strong foundation, plus hurt my team by losing both Samsonov and Sorokin. I still have Igor Shesterkin, Frederick Andersen, Marc-Andre Fleury and Pekka Rinne in net, and addressed that long term in a preseason waivers getting Daniil Tarasov, Ville Husso, and Samuel Ersson. I think my defense is about equal for now, but looking much better long term. I still have, in addition to Chabot, Dahlin (and Bouchard coming), Morgan Rielly, Ryan Ellis, Matt Dumba, Keith Yandle, Nate Schmidt, Alex Edler, Duncan Keith, plus Ty Smith, Juuso Valimaki, Scott Perunovich and Ville Heinola on the way. My forwards not mentioned are Sidney Crosby, Steven Stamkos, Jake Guentzel, Travis Konecny, J.T. Miller, Elias Lindholm, William Nylander, Nikita Gusev, Victor Olofsson, Dominik Kubalik, Nazem Kadri, Kirill Kaprisov, with depth guys like Pavel Buchnevich, Anthony Cirelli, Liam Foudy, Ryan Getzlaf, Clayton Keller, Phil Kessel, Alexander Radulov, Martin Necas, Ilya Mikheyev, Peyton Krebs, and Vasili Ponomaryov all on the way. In addition to those players I also have Alexander Texier, Max Comtois, Nick Abruzzese, Brendan Brisson, Jack Quinn, Shane Pinto, Kristian Vesalainen, Alexander Volkov, Jack Ahcan, Travis Dermott, Timothy Liljegren, and Jordan Spence.

So what is your opinion on my offseason and where my team stands for now and down the road?

At first, I thought that was a lot of deals; however, when each team has 100 players, chances are many offseason trades are routinely made. The other thing is in an eight-team league, and it's difficult to gauge, within a vacuum, whether a roster is strong, since with only seven other teams there will be a lot of very good players (and prospects) to go around. What you do need in an eight-team league though, are guys who are or can truly become elite; and at first glance, I worry you don't have enough of those.

In terms of your situation in net, the three guys you picked up figure to be – on paper – a major step down from what Samsonov or Sorokin stand to bring to the table. But if you've read my columns, I'm not too excited about either of those two, as while there still is a good chance one or both turn out to be very good, Samsonov has fared just so-so since coming to the US and Sorokin, due to playing for the Islanders, probably will max out at starting 60% of his team's games, and that's if he pans out. Both could still turn out to be disappointments. Where concern arises, however, is other than Shesterkin, who as we're seeing might not be as great – at least not yet – as some people had already anointed him, and Andersen, you won't really have any depth in net in another season or two, as Rinne likely will retire after 2020-21 and Fleury after 2021-22. Maybe one of the three guys you grabbed could pan out, but none are very highly regarded. Most likely next offseason you will need to prioritize getting at least a third starter or 1A goalie. So in hindsight, notwithstanding my feelings about them, I still probably would have either not traded either of Samsonov and Sorokin, banking on one of them panning out, or held onto the one who you thought had the better upside, leaving you less exposed at the position.

Your second trade is one I'd have surely made. Yes, you traded three defensemen with point per every other game downside, and that's a nice luxury to have; however, in getting Gaudreau and Ehlers you landed guys with very high ceilings, which is so key. Is there a concern Gaudreau won't return to his formerly elite ways? Yes, but that's a risk/reward you need to take to try and rise to the top. And even though Ehlers has started very strong and has a better path to success without Patrik Laine in the fold, the chance to land Dahlin could not be ignored. All Dahlin did is post the best age 18 offensive season from a rearguard in decades, then did the same thing for his teens overall. And he did this on a Sabres team that was far from an offensive juggernaut. Dahlin could be a generational talent, so with all due respect to Ehlers, he's the one you want if you can pick one of the two.

As for your first trade, although Kyrou is red hot, I worry that he's doing what he's doing in the absence of Vladimir Tarasenko and before Mike Hoffman has really gotten his feet wet. Still, if Kyrou plays this well for long enough, he'll make it all but impossible for the team to relegate him back to the bottom six. Batherson was a tough loss, and I still think he has as much if not more upside than Kyrou, but at worst this deal should be a wash.

Your last deal was a doozie. I love that you sold high on DeAngelo, who even before his early-season issues I had pegged for major regression (see here and here), but I'm less enthused about parting with DeBrincat, who only slumped last season because he shot below half his career rate. Had he sported his usual shooting percentage he'd have scored at a 73 point pace. As for Hellebuyck, trading him too is a tough pill to swallow, as he's a true #1 on a very, very good team. Yes, I realize he's yet to be able to string together two great seasons; however, he's still only 27 and has his best years likely ahead of him. I realize the lure in doing this was to get Eichel, yet unlike Dahlin, I think what we saw from Eichel during 2019-20 likely is close to his maxed-out production, since – as I explained in a Goldipucks column – elite centers tend to have peaked by his age, plus his 2019-20 goal total was inflated by a sky-high shooting percentage. Yes, he gets literally the best deployment of an NHL center in terms of scoring; but even accounting for Buffalo getting better I think Eichel is likely a 90-100 point player. Then again, you got Chabot, whom I expect to do very, very well this season (see the same two links after DeAngelo). If it was me, I'd probably have held pat; but the trade is certainly reasonable.

As for your team, beyond my worries about your goaltending, you have a lot of older forwards and some question marks. If this was a 12 team league I'd say you'd be in pretty decent shape; but for an eight-team league, I'm not sure if you'll be among the better teams. But certainly best of luck!

Question #2 (from David)

In my points-only keeper league, I have two waivers left for this upcoming year, and five opponents have a waiver as well. The following players are available, and this is the order I currently value them: Arthur Kaliyev, Philip Tomasino, Nick Robertson, Pavel Buchnevich, Nils Lundkvist, Anton Lundell, Helge Grans, Josh Norris, Jason Robertson, Matthew Boldy, Adam Beckman, Calen Addison, Owen Tippett, and Victor Soderstrom. Which two would you select if you were me? Who has the highest upside within the next two to five years?

First off, unless I'm missing something I'm confused as to why Buchnevich, who is an established NHLer, is on this list. I think he's a star in the making as if you combine his first 19 games and last 20 games of 2019-20 he was a point per game player and by the end of 2019-20 he was stapled to Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider, was logging major PP minutes, and was firing over three SOG per game. The future for him is now, and it's very bright. In fact, if you read my 15 Fearless Forecasts, you'll see I put him down for a point per game full season, and indeed he's off to a strong start.

As for the rest, all except for Grans are ranked among either the top 50 defensemen or top 200 forward prospects. Among forwards, their order in the top 200 is Nick Robertson, Tomasino, Jason Robertson, Norris, Tippett, Boldy, Kaliyev, Lundell and Beckman. In terms of the defensemen, their order is Lundqvist, Soderstrom and Addison, with Grans not ranked.

Starting with the forwards, I'm with you, as although Robertson is brimming with talent I worry his path to success may be limited given the depth of the Leafs. If he gets traded, perhaps to obtain a rental for a Toronto Cup run, then he could blossom on his new team. On the other hand, I like the situation for his big brother Jason, as Dallas wingers are ageing for the most part, and he should be tapped soon to help inject some young talent into the Stars line-up. Heck, look at what Denis Gurianov is doing. Tomasino on Nashville is concerning, as the highest point total for any forward on that team from 2010-11 to 2019-20 was 64 points. Some things just don't seem to change, and Nashville having low scoring forwards is one of them, so I think you have to push Tomasino down the rankings despite him seemingly oozing with talent. Norris, who's in the NHL and doing well in the early going, should be ranked accordingly high, plus Boldy and Tippett likely deserve to be higher on your list as each looks to have a good opportunity due to their teams, which is as important if not more so than talent when it comes to rating prospects. Lundell could leapfrog some of the other Florida youngsters, but also could end up staying in Finland for a while. Beckman looks to be rightfully ranked toward the end of your list. So my order for the forwards would be Buchnevich, Norris, Jason Robertson, Kaliyev, Boldy, Tippett, Tomasino, Nick Robertson, Lundell, Beckman.

Switching gears to defensemen, although I realize Soderstrom made his NHL debut already this season, I'd nevertheless put Addison first, again due to opportunity. Lundqvist, despite being perhaps the most talented of the four on paper, has to get through K'Andre Miller and Adam Fox, and Soderstrom needs to contend with Oliver Ekman-Larsson (at least until/unless he's traded) and Jakob Chychrun, who has clearly broken out this season. Grans seems like he too could be on the right team, as the Kings will need someone like him to compliment their corps of great young forwards, and we saw already this season that they weren't afraid to turn to Cale Klague. But Grans is also the rawest of the four. So my ranking for the defensemen would be Addison, Lundqvist, Soderstrom, then Grans. As for where to rank them among the forwards, I'd put Addison after Boldy, Lundqvist and Soderstrom directly after Tippett, and then Grans after Tomasino. Good luck!

Question #3 (from zerotocap)

I'm in a new dynasty hockey pool using Fantrax that allows us to keep players year round and keep minor leaguers as well. The new pool will be a dynasty with a salary cap based on the NHL AAV per player and will be a 14 Team pool. For our salary cap it will be the NHL salary cap plus $25M, so for this season it will be $81M+ $25M = $106M. It will be H2H with categories of G, A, +/-, HIT, BLK, PIM, SOG, PPP, FOW (centers only); W, SV, SV%, GAA, SO. Rosters will consist of the following: 4C, 4LW, 4RW, 6D, 2G, plus 6 Bench and 3 Minor League. All players are kept. There will be a 3 Round Rookie Draft the week of September 15th each year moving forward, consisting of that year's NHL Entry Draft and adding 3 additional minor league spots until we reach a max of 20 minor rosters spots.

Being a novice yet a research-aholic, I'm looking for advice on strategy of drafting players. For example who should I draft as a 1st overall pick? What must I look out for and where I can learn the most about being the best GM in my league?

I'll be happy to give you my two cents, yet I think a great resource for this type of question is the DobberHockey Forums, where many of the finest minds in fantasy hockey, including other fellow DobberHockey columnists, dispense advice to those who seek it.

First off, goalies will comprise 10% of your active roster yet goalie categories account for 35% of your categories. As such, I'd really do my best to lock down a top tier goalie. But others likely will have the same mentality, so if you don't get one of the best of the best don't reflexively reach for goalies early, as after the elite the rest are bunched together. Do try to get an unquestioned #1 goalie though, rather than a 1A. Similarly, once you get past truly elite pure centers, there'll be no need to rush to grab one, especially if he doesn't have dual position eligibility, as center is by far the deepest position in fantasy.

Wingers and defensemen should be prioritized, as the drop off from the very good to just okay is quite steep. I think at least six or even seven of your top ten picks should be wingers and defensemen. That way you lock up great ones and can then focus on the bunched together goalies and centers.

The other issue is how young do you want to go. With this being a true dynasty, you will want to do your best to have your team's average age be 26 or lower, with the number of players over 30 roughly equal to the number 22 or under. But don't obsess about this too much — it's something to be cognizant of and can be used as the deciding factor when, for example, you are torn on which of two players to grab. But don't make the mistake of completely ignoring older players, as if you go too young you might have a bright future but you'll struggle early on.

In terms of minors, you'll need to do a lot of homework there, and visiting the DobberHockey Prospects page and purchasing the DobberHockey Keeper League Pack will give you an edge, plus the Forums can help as well. The factors I use when evaluating prospects are, as noted in my answer to the previous question, opportunity, demonstrated success at each level, plus age.

Lastly, I'd be cautious about trading too much. Trading will need to occur, as this is a true Dynasty. But if you overly tinker with your team then you can end up with so much of a revolving door so as to make it difficult to actually let the trades take root and see how they pan out. As for who to take first overall, if you can't get Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid, Andrei Vasilevskiy, or Leon Draisaitl, then you want to either move to the next tier of Jack Eichel, Auston Matthews and the like or go young. Good luck!

Question #4 (from Dave)

What's up with Timo Meier's PP Time in San Jose, or, more specifically, his lack of PP Time?

I'd liken Meier's situation very much to that of Nicolaj Ehlers prior to the Patrick Laine trade-in that although both have received some top-line deployment at even strength, for whatever reason they've not been able to find a home on their team's PP1. In the case of Meier, it's because he hasn't forced the issue, as over the past three seasons he received – cumulatively – the 150th most PP minutes among all forwards and he tied for the 146th most PPPts. So he was doing about as well as he should, but not well enough to necessitate that the team bestow upon him more PP Time. Also, San Jose is one of the few teams in the NHL today that – as I write this and both Erik Karlsson and Brent Burns are healthy – still tends to use two defensemen on its PP1, making it so there are only three forward spots to be occupied.

Moreover, despite Meier being a high volume shooter overall, that hasn't translated to the PP, as last season he took 172 SOG at even strength, tops among all San Jose forwards, yet his 23 SOG on the PP only ranked him a distant fourth behind Evander Kane's 45, Logan Couture's 42 and Kevin Labanc's 39. So when it comes to precious PP1 time, the team likely doesn't see Meier as a weapon in the same way he is at even strength.

Could this change in the future? Quite possibly, as Meier is part of the younger core for the team and either Burns or Karlsson could get hurt or the team could simply opt to run PP1 with for forwards. But for now, I'd bank on Meier's PP time and output is comparable to his past two seasons. Good luck!

Question #5 (from Ross)

I'm in an 8 team non-keeper league. Roster positions are 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 4D, 2Util, 7 Bench, 1 IR, 1 IR+. Scoring is G (6), A (4), +/- (1), PPP (2), SOG (0.9), Hit (1), W (4), GA (-2), SV (0.5), SHO (6).

I'm curious which five of the following seven defensemen you think will be most productive this season: Victor Hedman, Miro Heiskanen, Samuel Girard, Alexander Romanov, Ivan Provorov, P.K. Subban, Drew Doughty? Would you ditch any of them for Jakob Chychrun and/or Keith Yandle?

Hedman is of course a lock. I also think Provorov, who ranks ninth in goals, 25th in SOG, and 41st in Hits among all d-men over the past three seasons, also makes the cut even if Erik Gustafsson eats away at his coveted PP1 time. As for Chychrun, I think his solid start is him breaking out, as he'd already seen his scoring rate and SOG rise for each of the past two seasons. Those are my three locks.

Doughty is tempting since LA has no better options for blueline offense and he still hits a lot. Subban on the other hand, might not be able to maintain his favorable deployment when New Jersey has Damon Severson and especially upstart Ty Smith as options. If you read my 15 Fearless Forecasts, you'll know I predicted that Heiskanen will perform below expectations. Still, given what he showed it'd be risky to jettison him, albeit less so in a non-keeper. Girard is not helped by the new arrival of Devon Toews, who did just get injured, yet Colorado's offense is so great that it's difficult to not hold onto Girard and he's faring well. As for Romanov, I get that he's started nicely; however, with the money being paid to Jeff Petry and Shea Weber I think he's on the outside looking in. And in terms of Yandle, I think a fire has been lit under him; however, last season he started great and then hit a wall. Chances are that happens again, with an even earlier drop-off.

Getting to a final five is tough, as after Hedman, Provorov and Chychrun there are several who could put up similar numbers. What I'd probably do is take one of greybeards Doughty, Subban and Yandle and one of the youngsters Girard and Heiskanen. Probably I go with Doughty, since as I noted he has no one who could eat away at his minutes, including on the PP, and Girard, as I'll take a second or third banana on a high-powered offensive team over an up and comer on a defensive-focused squad who will be hurt by the presence of John Klingberg plus having to play games in an even more compressed schedule due to COVID issues at the outset of the season, not to mention this not being a keeper. Good luck!

Question #6 (from Joe)

I have a few questions:

1) Looking at Flyer forwards, what is the outlook for the next few seasons for Sean Couturier, Kevin Hayes, Nolan Patrick and Morgan Frost?

2. William Karlsson, Nico Hischier or Sean Monahan – how would you rank them for this season?
3. Do you think Joe Pavelski or Jamie Benn can bounce back, and will Roope Hintz break out?
4. Who is the best player for shorthanded points?

With Alain Vigneault at the helm, the team's arguably two best players being Ivan Provorov and Carter Hart, and no shortage of forwards who could slot into the top nine, I am not predicting big numbers from any Flyers forward this season or even the next few, this despite strong starts from a few. In terms of the Vigneault factor, let's not forget in the five seasons he coached in New York when the team's best player was Henrik Lundqvist, I don't think it's a coincidence no forward scored even 70 points in any season, with only one instance of any tallying more than 61. Simply put, Vigneault knew his strength lay in net and it should be a similar story for the Flyers for perhaps a similar stretch of time. There are also five forwards on Philly making $5.5M or more over at least the next two seasons, creating a situation where there won't be heaps of ice time for any one guy.

As for the four you mentioned, although Couturier has shown he has offensive chops since he was put into a top-six role, his bread and butter is a two-way game. Under Vigneault, I'd expect Couturier to focus more on that, with his scoring to suffer at least somewhat, and putting his points pace ceiling at 70 points, with 60-65 an even more realistic target. Hayes parlayed his great playoffs into a strong start to the 2020-21 campaign; however, this is someone who is already 28 and only once produced above a full-season pace of 53 points. I'd bank on him landing in the 55-65 point pace range, with where he falls on that range depending largely on his PP time and how long Couturier is out of the line-up.

In terms of Patrick, I'd look for the team to handle him carefully, taking their time and waiting until his strong play forces their hand. I think he will likely take incremental steps in the next couple of seasons and then be in line for a breakout in 2022-23 or perhaps 2023-24. Frost is highly regarded, but so are Patrick and Joel Farabee. On a team like this, I can't see any young forward being able to break out before having three or even four full seasons under his belt, including Frost. So in sum, if I'm looking for players to acquire in most leagues, I'd probably avoid Flyer forwards, as the price to get them likely would exceed what I'd expect them to produce under these circumstances.

For the second question, give me Monahan. Consider last season a hiccup for him. He's in the best offensive situation and smack dab in his prime. He should outpoint either of the other two by a decent margin. Karlsson is a WYSIWYG player at this point, with his 2017-18 production being cemented as an outlier. He's a 55-60 point full season pace player, and nothing more. Hischier is not being helped by Jack Hughes' transformation from fish out of water to bona fide star, nor by his inability to avoid injuries here and there. This was supposed to be Hischier's breakout season but it looks like if that will happen, it will need to wait another year, and that's if Hughes hasn't already pushed him to second-line center status going forward. So I'm putting Monahan first, and then the other two are essentially tied, with Karlsson getting perhaps a slight edge in one-year leagues due to him having virtually no downside but still Hischier over Karlsson in keepers.

The Dallas forwards are tempting given how good the team has looked early on plus the fact that both Pavelski and Benn improved during the playoffs. But that was when the season was on the line. Now it's about getting into the playoffs, and the Stars – including veterans like Pavelski and Benn – know that will happen for Dallas by preventing the other team from scoring as much, if not more so, than by them being high scorers. I'd look for both to put up disappointing regular season numbers again. Hintz should get favorable deployment for a while; but unless he plays lights out I worry he'll be pushed aside once Tyler Seguin returns, as Hintz didn't receive favorable deployment from Rick Bowness last season. I would not go out of my way to target Dallas forwards except in deeper leagues, and only then if the price is right and/or if it's not points only so as to benefit from the other areas in which Pavelski and Benn, and, even to some extent Hintz, contribute.

Shorthanded points are one of the most difficult areas to target. I'd liken it to game-winning goals in that just as players who get a lot of goals usually will get more GWGs, players who get a lot of shorthanded duty but also can score will tend to be the ones in line for SHPs. Even then though, it's a crapshoot, as other than Brad Marchand the highest cumulative SHP total for any player over the past seven seasons was 23. If I'm in a league with SHPs, I don't draft or trade specifically for it, except perhaps to try and get guys who might contribute there plus in other categories, like PIM, FOW, HIT and BLK (e.g., Blake Wheeler, Ryan O'Reilly, Evander Kane, Jamie Benn) or to get a list of the top 50 guys in SHPs over the past 3-5 seasons and use that as a tiebreaker when it comes to drafting/trading. Of course, this changes if somehow SHPs is one of only a handful of skater categories, in which case you have to give the top producers a lot of value. But for the most part when I see it included as a category it's in a "kitchen sink" league where there are a dozen or even more skater categories, making it so focusing on it can be more of a trap than a sound strategy.

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For those reading this now, it's never too early to start providing me with mailbag questions, which you can do in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many starts at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.