Looking Ahead: Vegas Gold

Adam Daly-Frey

2021-02-05

All fantasy owners need help in the short term AND the long term. The Looking Ahead feature identifies one player to plug into lineups in the short term, a second to invest in for the long term, a third to bench for the coming week, and a fourth who will struggle to meet expectations for some time. All players discussed are selected based on their upcoming schedule.

Note: With COVID news coming out of the blue, this article could be stale by Friday evening. It's important as always to pay attention to twitter and the site (especially the Ramblings) to keep abreast of all fantasy-relevant changes. The schedule portion of this article will continue as always, but be prepared to react quickly if games get postponed. All stats updated through Wednesday, February 4.

The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)

William Karlsson, C, Vegas Golden Knights (Available in 61 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – With Vegas' great upcoming schedule, Karlsson's a great add in the short term, as Vegas' second-line center continues to play a ton of minutes (19:08/game on average so far) on a dominant team.

Karlsson has only put up two goals and an assist through his first seven games, but in leagues that track peripherals – especially short-handed points and faceoffs – he's a tremendous asset. Karlsson is the rare player that gets top power-play minutes and penalty kill minutes, which means added opportunities for blocks and short-handed points. Playing alongside his long-time wingers in Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith, Karlsson won't suddenly become a point-per-game player, but he'll definitely contribute more in the first half of February than someone like Taylor Hall and is worth adding to replace some COVID-list players.

The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)

Jesse Puljujarvi, W, Edmonton Oilers (Available in 84 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – After getting picked fourth overall in 2016, Puljujarvi had a ton of helium playing on an Oilers team with Connor McDavid; after disappointing with only 37 points in 139 games, he left to play in the Liiga and fantasy players seem to have completely written him off since then.

Puljujarvi was a dominant winger in Finland, taking over five shots/game and putting up just under a point-per-game (53 points in 56 games), and since re-signing in Edmonton he sits third in shot attempts per 60 minutes (13.64 iCF/60) and second in actual shots on goal (11.08/60). Rate stats are always nice to look at, but Puljujarvi had gone under-owned because he was relegated to the fourth line at the start of the season; that's all changed now, as the young Finn is in the best possible spot as the winger to Connor McDavid (and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.) At 5v5 while playing on the top line, Puljujarvi is getting 60% of the shot share and 69% of the expected goal share, so expect the points to start flowing.

The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)

Mark Giordano, D, Calgary Flames (Owned in 77 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Given he's no longer the power-play quarterback for Calgary's top unit, there's an argument that Giordano could even be listed as an anchor; Giordano is already 37 years old and he's played 20,000+ minutes in his career, so the drop-off will happen sooner than later.

This season, Giordano is sitting at a quiet 1G-2A through the Flames' first nine games, and he's playing less minutes than he has since his first full year in the league (2009-10) – he's at only 21:34 per night, a far cry from the 23+ of the past 10 seasons. With the Flames' dominance slipping over the past season, Giordano's no longer the +/- monster he was, and although he's great at blocking shots there are better options available on the waiver wire.

The Anchors (They'll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)

Tomas Tatar, W, Montreal Canadiens (Owned in 70 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – After going four straight games without a point, Tatar lost his spot on the power play to Josh Anderson, which which means his already-low ceiling is lowered even further. Tatar has only topped 16 minutes in a game once this season – Montreal has three very strong lines and a good fourth line, so playing time is pretty evenly spread – and on the season he's averaging only 15:08/night.

For playing on one of the best even-strength lines in hockey (alongside Brendan Gallagher and Phillip Danault), Tatar's shot totals this year have been distressingly low, only 14 shots in ten games. He's hit three shots in a game only twice, and he doesn't typically contribute in hits/blocks so he's a major disappointment in leagues that track peripherals.

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After putting up 61 points in only 68 games last year and playing in the soft Canadian division, the sky was the limit for Tatar this year and he was drafted as such. Unfortunately for Tatar and those who drafted him, the Canadiens acquiring both Josh Anderson and Tyler Toffoli have hurt to a large enough degree that Tatar is droppable.

Love 'Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)

This period runs from February 5 to February 17

Vegas – After not having played since January 26, the Golden Knights have a great schedule this period with a full seven games – six of which come at home. Vegas will play one road game in San Jose, and two games each against Los Angeles, Anaheim and Colorado. Vegas has only played seven games so far but have scored four or more in four of those games, so the offensive potential is high. Play them with confidence.

Nashville – The Predators haven't impressed much this season – scoring more than three goals in a game only one – but their stars should be counted on to produce, as the shots and chances are coming but goals are getting converted at only 7.2 percent so far (second-worst in the league.) The Preds should be able to take advantage of a game against Florida and two home games against Detroit, and also have four more games to try to find points in; Nashville will play two games in Dallas and two home games against Tampa to round out the schedule, for seven total games this period.

Ottawa – In leagues that track plus/minus, it might be for the best to ignore this advice – especially given Ottawa's 5v5 goal differential of minus-16 (dead last in the league) – but for those who don't care about plus/minus, the Senators have a great upcoming schedule: two home games against the Oilers, two road games at the Jets, and two road games at Toronto are all very appealing matchups, with their seventh game this period coming against Montreal.

Leave 'Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)

Minnesota – COVID protocols mean the Wild only play three games this period, and that's assuming their first game back (against the Blues on the 11th) plays without issue. Even without postponements, the Wild have been a relative disappointment outside of Kirill Kaprizov, and one of their only other fantasy-relevant players in Matt Dumba was just added to Injured Reserve.

Buffalo – The Sabres have also been hit by COVID – thanks to some poor decisions by the league and the Devils – and as a result will only have four games this period, which includes a back-to-back against the stingy Islanders. Buffalo will also play Washington and while all four games come at home, there are too many factors going against the Sabres to consider using any in fantasy.

Arizona – Losing two games to COVID schedule changes means the Coyotes play only four times this period – all against St. Louis (Editor's note: the March 29 and 31 Coyotes/Blues games have both been moved up to February 6 and 8, due to both teams having cancelled games.) Arizona has struggled to score this season, scoring more than three goals in only two of their first nine games and getting shut out twice. The higher-end Coyotes can be rolled out (Christian Dvorak, Nick Schmaltz and Conor Garland) but anyone else should be avoided.

February 5 to February 11
Best Bets
VGK 4.725 – – Home LAK LAK ANH ANH
FLA 4.62 – Home NSH DET DET TBL
LAK 4.42 – Away VGK VGK – Home SJS SJS
ANH 4.42 – Away VGK VGK- Home SJS SJS
TBL 4.3 – Away NSH NSH FLA- Home DET
Steer Clear
MIN 0.945 – Away – Home STL
BUF 1.1025 – Away – Home WSH
ARI 1.71 – Away COL COL- Home
NYR 1.89 – Away – Home NYI BOS
BOS 1.995 – Away PHI NYR – Home
February 6 to February 12
Best Bets
OTT 4.2575 – Away WPG – Home MTL EDM EDM
EDM 4.2275 – Away CGY OTT OTT MTL – Home
COL 3.6 – Away STL STL – Home ARI ARI
VGK 3.57 – Away – Home LAK ANH ANH
FLA 3.5175 – Away – Home DET DET TBL
Steer Clear
MIN 0.945 – Away – Home STL
BUF 1.1025 – Away – Home WSH
ARI 1.71 – Away COL COL – Home
NJD 2 – Away PHI – Home PIT
BOS 2.09 – Away NYR NYR- Home
February 7 to February 13
Best Bets
VGK 4.71 – Away SJS- Home LAK ANH ANH
LAK 4.625 – Away VGK – Home SJS SJS MIN
NSH 4.515 – Away – Home TBL TBL DET DET
FLA 4.515 – Away – Home DET DET TBL TBL
PHI 4.305 – Away WSH WSH – Home NJD NJD
Steer Clear
ANH 1.9 – Away VGK VGK – Home
PIT 1.9475 – Away NJD NYI – Home
MIN 1.99 – Away LAK- Home STL
BUF 2.205 – Away – Home WSH WSH
ARI 2.655 – Away COL COL – Home STL
February 8 to February 14
Best Bets
NSH 4.515 – – Home TBL TBL DET DET
VGK 4.5 – Away SJS – Home ANH ANH COL
OTT 4.105 – Away WPG WPG – Home EDM EDM
WSH 4.09 – Away BUF BUF PIT- Home PHI
TBL 4.085 – Away NSH NSH FLA FLA – Home
Steer Clear
MIN 1.99 – Away LAK – Home STL
ANH 1.9 – Away VGK VGK – Home
BUF 2.205 – Away – Home WSH WSH
STL 1.9 – Away MIN ARI – Home
CAR 2.565 – Away CBJ DAL DAL – Home
February 9 to February 15
Best Bets
VGK 4.5 – Away SJS – Home ANH ANH COL
NSH 4.3725 – Away DAL- Home TBL DET DET
SJS 4.3475 – Away LAK LAK – Home VGK ANH
WPG 4.4675 – Away CGY EDM- Home OTT OTT
DAL 4.2525 – Away – Home CHI CAR CAR NSH
Steer Clear
NYR 1.785 – Away – Home BOS BOS
MIN 1.99 – Away LAK – Home STL
CAR 2.655 – Away DAL DAL – Home CBJ
STL 2.755 – Away MIN ARI ARI- Home
COL 2.84 – Away VGK – Home ARI ARI
February 10 to February 16
Best Bets
VGK 4.2375 – Away SJS – Home ANH COL COL
NSH 4.23 – Away DAL DAL- Home DET DET
DAL 4.2 – Away – Home CAR CAR NSH NSH
BUF 4.2 – Away – Home WSH WSH NYI NYI
BOS 4.1475 – Away NYR NYR NYI – Home NJD
Steer Clear
EDM 2.0475 – Away MTL – Home WPG
ANH 2.09 – Away VGK SJS – Home
CAR 2.655 – Away DAL DAL – Home CBJ
NJD 2.7075 – Away PHI PHI BOS – Home
ARI 2.745 – Away COL – Home STL STL
February 11 to February 17
Best Bets
WPG 4.515 – Away EDM EDM- Home OTT OTT
DET 4.305 – Away NSH NSH – Home CHI CHI
VGK 4.2375 – Away SJS – Home ANH COL COL
NSH 4.23 – Away DAL DAL – Home DET DET
DAL 4.2 – Away – Home CAR CAR NSH NSH
Steer Clear
NYR 1.9425 – Away – Home BOS PHI
ANH 2.09 – Away VGK SJS – Home
MTL 2.1475 – Away TOR – Home EDM
NJD 2.7075 – Away PHI PHI BOS – Home
ARI 2.745 – Away COL – Home STL STL

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UPCOMING GAMES

Apr 18 - 19:04 MIN vs SEA
Apr 18 - 20:04 WPG vs VAN
Apr 18 - 21:04 CGY vs S.J
Apr 18 - 21:04 COL vs EDM
Apr 18 - 22:04 VGK vs ANA
Apr 18 - 22:04 L.A vs CHI

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
LANE HUTSON MTL
JURAJ SLAFKOVSKY MTL
AUSTON MATTHEWS TOR
CONNOR MCDAVID EDM
SIDNEY CROSBY PIT

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
MARC-ANDRE FLEURY MIN
SEMYON VARLAMOV NYI
THATCHER DEMKO VAN
CHARLIE LINDGREN WSH
JET GREAVES CBJ

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency STL Players
22.1 ROBERT THOMAS BRAYDEN SCHENN ZACK BOLDUC
21.4 BRANDON SAAD JORDAN KYROU PAVEL BUCHNEVICH
19.3 ALEXEY TOROPCHENKO KASPERI KAPANEN KEVIN HAYES

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