21 Fantasy Hockey Rambles
Mario Prata
2021-02-07
Every Sunday, we’ll share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.
Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Cam Robinson, and Dobber
1. The Carter Verhaeghe train keeps on rolling. The player with the most viewed Frozen Tools page this week, Verhaeghe scored another goal while adding another assist in 19 minutes of action on Friday. That gives him six goals and nine points in just eight games. No one can maintain 40% shooting accuracy, so Verhaeghe is almost certain to cool off at some point. I’d advise selling high, but many fantasy owners had probably never heard of him prior to this season. Maybe add him in a package deal if you’re trying to target a particular player. [Fantasy Impact: Florida Panthers Sign Verhaeghe, Gudas]
The key to Verhaeghe’s success has been Joel Quenneville’s decision to split up Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau. Verhaeghe has ended up on Barkov’s wing as a result, and Barkov’s production hasn’t suffered as a result of losing Huberdeau. With a goal and an assist of his own on Friday, Barkov is scoring at over a point per game (11 PTS in 8 GP) and is currently riding a four-game point streak. Barkov is also averaging over four shots per game, which places him in the top 10 in the league. (feb6)
2. If you’re looking for an early leader for comeback player of the year, James van Riemsdyk is a solid candidate. With a power-play goal on Friday, van Riemsdyk is now up to 16 points (6 G, 10 A) in just 12 games. He’s also riding a six-game point streak where he has recorded 11 points. Compare that to a 0.61 PTS/GP average last season, which was his lowest since the 2011-12 season.
JVR hasn’t consistently been with the same linemates throughout the season. However, he’s now receiving first-unit power-play minutes, something he didn’t receive last season. He’s receiving the prime power-play opportunities because he’s been getting his big body in front of the net for tip-ins. With the power-play goal on Friday, JVR has five power-play goals, already surpassing his total of 4 PPG from all of last season.
Is there a sell-high opportunity here? I’d say so. Both his shooting percentage (21.4%) and 5-on-5 shooting percentage (17.2%) are much higher than expected. The opportunities he has received suggest that he won’t necessarily fall off a cliff, but it’s worth mentioning that he went through some lengthy dry spells last season (a 7-game and two 8-game stretches without a point). If you can trade him for a top-tier fantasy option, do it. (feb6)
3. The Coyotes seldom feature players that are among the scoring leaders. So, it was interesting to see Christian Dvorak among a large group of players that were tied for 10th in goal scoring with six goals late this past week. I’m not that bullish on him continuing on that pace given the Coyotes’ lack of scoring depth, but his fifth NHL season could turn out to be his best. (feb5)
4. One guy worth talking about right now is Seth Jones. Jones saw a breakout in 2016-17 with 12 goals and 42 points to go with over two shots per game, and over two hits+blocks per game. He followed that up with a superlative 2017-18 which saw him post 16 goals and 57 points in 78 games, posting over three shots per game and nearly three hits+blocks per game. It seemed like perennial fantasy stardom was a certainty.
Until it wasn’t. Jones has 79 points in his last 143 games, or a 45-point pace. Not bad. But that includes just 16 goals – which is as many in 2017-18 alone – and he is now in his third straight year of shots/game decline. He has fallen from 3.2, to 2.5, to 2.3, and finally to under 2.0 this year. This is a big concern.
Jones not shooting is a problem because goal scoring was once a coveted trait of his. Not only that, but Columbus isn’t exactly known for goal scoring in general, so racking up assists will be tough. With few goals, declining shots, and a poor offensive environment, well, those issues add up quickly.
To me, this screams of coaching influence, so a notion that Jones can’t reclaim his past glory is false. But at the same time, as long as that influence remains, how can we rely on him in the fantasy realm? I would argue it’s very difficult to do so. Zach Werenski isn’t very far behind, either… (feb4)
5. A couple days ago I was talking about Jakub Vrana. Why was I talking about Jakub Vrana? Because Jakub Vrana has virtually identical 5-on-5 production rates as Auston Matthews going back to the 2018-19 season.
Anyone who has followed my writing for a while knows that I like Vrana a lot as a player. One thing I have come around more on is that coaches generally know when players aren’t capable of handling more minutes. In other words, I think there’s often a good reason guys with great rate stats don’t always get a ton of minutes – I’m thinking of players like Brendan Gallagher or Craig Smith.
On the other hand, we never really know unless they get the minutes, and that makes this a hard situation. I could very much believe that for any number of reasons, Vrana can’t play 18-19 minutes a night every game. That maybe he can do that every seven or eight games, but the rest of the time it has to be 14-15. That is believable. But we don’t know if that’s the case, and that’s what is frustrating. (feb4)
6. Recent callup, Erik Brannstrom is a great prospect but be wary in the fantasy game. The Sens don’t have a lot of scoring depth and when healthy, it’ll be Thomas Chabot on the top PP unit. It will be nice to see Brannstrom get in some NHL games, but I suspect we’re a few years away from him really hitting his stride for fantasy managers. (feb4)
7. Arthur Kaliyev made his NHL debut this past week and ended up finding the back of the net on a greasy one. The 19-year-old is known for his ridiculous release so of course, he managed to find a way onto the scoresheet like that. It's simply the way of the world.
This is a player who has an undeniable offensive upside. He'll be insulated amongst a host of extremely talented youngsters who are quickly coming up in LA. That said, I've been much lower on him than others. Perhaps it's because I've watched him sleepwalk through most of his OHL games, caring little for anything away from the puck or in the defensive zone. However, if you can ignite a fire in his belly, or simply harness his raw potential, then watch out! This kid has a ton of boom potential, with nearly as much bust. (feb3)
8. A few weeks back, Steve Laidlaw and I tossed around the potential of Carolina sniper Andrei Svechnikov making a run at the Rocket Richard this season. The odds were justifiably long and we concurred that now was not quite the time. We wanted to see the 2018 second-overall selection begin to beat goaltenders from out high. Adding that element would make him a true threat to finish every shift.
I'm still waiting to see that evolution to his game. It's in there somewhere. And when it comes out, we'll be looking at another player capable of sniffing the elusive 50-goal barrier. (feb3)
9. Vancouver may suck these days, but Quinn Hughes just refuses to stop hitting the scoresheet. Entering Saturday action, the 21-year-old sophomore had 14 points in 14 games to lead all defenders.
Since entering the league late in the 2018-19 season, he has accumulated 86 points in 104 career games. Yes, that is about a 68-point pace through what has basically amounted to 1.25 seasons in the league. Grossly amazing.
You've all likely heard the back-patting from over there, but continue to self-congratulate myself regularly for having him third on my draft board in 2018. My apologies to Montreal, Ottawa, AZ, and Detroit, but yall fucked up passing on this guy. Carolina and Buffalo get a pass… for now. (feb3)
10. Tyler Toffoli continues to look an awful lot like a Hall of Famer when skating against his former club. Two more goals and an assist last Tuesday gave the 28-year-old a RIDICULOUS eight goals and 11 points in five games against Vancouver this season.
Toffoli is obviously due for major regression, mostly because he's running out of games against Vancouver. But he has been an excellent addition to the Habs lineup. He brings intelligence and scoring punch from the 'third line' and the 'top PP'. I use quotes because the top nine in Montreal is spread out pretty nicely. And their PP units are also in a split situation. Sell sell sell. (feb3)
11. Patrik Laine made his CBJ debut on Tuesday and boy did it look weird to start. I suppose it didn't help that the Jackets were wearing their Reverse Retros as well. But it'll take some time to become accustomed to Laine in Ohio.
It was a fairly unspectacular outing from the young Finn. Two shots, two hits, two PIM and a -2 rating and was working the left point on the top PP. I've been saying this since the trade occurred: this move is a bring down for Laine in the fantasy world. (feb3)
Later in the week, on Thursday, Laine scored his first goal as a Blue Jacket while playing on a line with Max Domi and Alexandre Texier. Domi broke a three-game point drought, while Texier broke a four-game point drought. Laine’s presence at both even strength and on the power play could help Domi and Texier in particular. (feb5)
12. John Klingberg simply refuses to quit. He witnessed his season-long point streak come to an end last weekend but grabbed a couple of assists on Tuesday to get back on the roll. His 10 points in eight games on the season lead all backs on a per-game basis.
This isn't exactly coming out of nowhere either. After a 'down' 2019-20 regular season, where he paced for just 45 points in a full campaign, the 28-year-old woke up in a large way in the playoffs. Dating back to the return to play session, the Swedish defender has 30 points in his last 34 contests.
He's right in the heart of his peak productive seasons. If you're not looking like a contender, go ahead and start sniffing around a sell-high potential. If you are a contender, ride this horse out to the desert like your face is on a wanted poster. (feb3)
13. St. Louis looks like a juggernaut right now. Their second line of Jaden Schwartz–Brayden Schenn–Jordan Kyrou has been one of the best lines in the league this year. The top-line duo of Ryan O’Reilly–David Perron was scuffling a bit back there, but may get Vladimir Tarasenko back in the next month as he was seen skating in gear this week. What the timeline is, we don’t know, but that he's back on skates is a very good sign.
Suppose that second line persists in its excellent play, and O’Reilly-Perron add Tarasenko to the mix a month from now. How good is that team going to be? Scary thought. (feb2)
14. Patrick Kane must be looking around the Chicago roster and wondering where half his team went. It’s even been enough to make me second-guess drafting Kane 11th overall in one single-season league. Yet, even with Mattias Janmark as his most frequent even-strength linemate, Kane was able to pile up the points (one goal, three assists) in 23 minutes of ice time last Thursday.
Not to worry, as Kane is now above the point-per-game mark (15 points in 12 games) once again, as he has been for seven of his eight previous seasons. (feb5)
15. Mike Hoffman is another player that I’ve been concerned about drafting too high. St. Louis seemed like a great match, but he stumbled out of the gate with just a goal and an assist in his first six games. Yet he finally poured it on during the final few minutes of Thursday’s game, scoring two goals (and spoiling an Antti Raanta shutout bid that I was crossing my fingers for!) More notable is that Hoffman took nine shots on goal, easily a season high.
Hoffman has been stuck on the Blues’ second power-play unit, which seems like a waste. He’s reached double-digit power-play goals in three of the last four seasons. I’m sure someone out there who has watched the Blues more than I have can provide a technical explanation as to why he’s not on the first unit. Yet, being surrounded with the likes of Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas, and Vince Dunn on the second unit isn’t a terrible situation either. (feb5)
16. With Tony DeAngelo out of the picture, Adam Fox should be the lock PP1QB for the rest of the season and that is tremendous news for his fantasy value. He is already on a 40-point/56-game pace while averaging over two shots and two blocks per game. Now that the top PP minutes are his alone for the rest of the year, what’s he going to do? An exciting time for Fox fantasy owners.
It should also help Jacob Trouba‘s fantasy value. His PP role had been tenuous with Fox/DeAngelo sometimes each taking for their own PP unit with Trouba on the outside looking in. That shouldn’t be the case now, with Fox on one unit and Trouba on the second. (feb2)
17. Joel Eriksson Ek has eight points in his last eight games. This year is his BT season (Breakout Threshold) and I do expect a breakout. I don’t think it’s this kind of production, but I think he can be a 60-point guy, which is 42 points in a shortened season like this. Be cautious and hope for 40 but expect low 30s for now. His career high was last year, which was a 38-point 82-game pace.
Eriksson Ek’s linemate Jordan Greenway has 10 points in 11 games. As a 6-6 forward, the expectation is that he will breakout around the 400-game mark. It would seem that he’s early – he’s played 165 games, which is even early for regular-sized players. Current production is unsustainable, but it would seem that a breakout is here. Look for just over a point every two games in the end. (feb1)
18. Kevin Lankinen continues to shine. He has six Quality Starts in eight starts. If this keeps up, do the Blackhawks wave one of Malcolm Subban or Collin Delia? How long do they wait to do this? Lankinen is the only goalie who can be sent down without waivers. But he’s also the only goalie that is winning. The Hawks don’t want to be stuck with unproven goaltending (more unproven than what is currently there), so they’ll be very careful before waiving Subban. They want to be absolutely sure that Lankinen is here to stay. (feb1)
19. Joel Farabee picked up four points in Game 1… then he had one point in eight games… and then he scored a hat trick last Sunday. What are fantasy owners in weekly leagues supposed to do with that? More than one fantasy GM got burned I’m sure. Farabee hasn't seen much power-play time in the last six games after being mostly a part of it in the first six. So, that’s a bit of a red flag in terms of sustainability. I think what we’ve seen so far is what we’ll get this year – production in big spurts. (feb1)
20. Nikita Gusev has just one point in nine games for the Devils so far. Very unexpected, obviously, and no real explanation for it other than poor puck luck (just 2.7 5on5 S%). His linemates aren’t bad – Pavel Zacha and Andreas Johnsson. But even if they were bad, that has never stopped the talented Gusev before. His PP time is up, but he has yet to convert a point on it. I consider him a ‘buy’ right now – ripe for the picking. (feb1)
21. Travis Konecny was made a healthy scratch last week, which is no doubt something that his fantasy owners wouldn’t have expected. At the time, the Flyers forward had five goals and eight points in eight games, so scoring clearly wasn’t the problem. When asked, Alain Vigneault said that Konecny’s 5-on-5 play needed to be better. Clearly, AV wasn’t happy with Konecny’s defensive play. This serves as a reminder that defensive play doesn’t matter to us fantasy owners and it may not stand out in the boxscores, but it really, really, really matters to coaches. (jan31)
Have a good week, folks – be safe!!
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