Ramblings: Recent Hot Performers, North Division Players to Sell High On (Feb 13)

Ian Gooding

2021-02-13

The Bruins are one of the league's hottest teams, having gone 9-0-1 in last 10 games. That streak includes a 1-0 win over the Rangers on Friday. Jaroslav Halak pitched the 21-save shutout, which gives him four consecutive wins.

Nick Ritchie scored the game's only goal in the second period, the goal being his fifth of the season. With Matt Grzelcyk out of the lineup again, the Bruins have elected to go with a five-forward power play that includes Ritchie. As long as this is the case, Ritchie is worth owning in standard leagues. This is even more so the case in bangers leagues, as Ritchie has reached at least 100 hits and 60 penalty minutes in each of the last four seasons.

The Rangers were without Artemi Panarin on Friday with a lower-body injury. That meant that Alexis Lafreniere was able to take Panarin's spot on a scoring line beside Ryan Strome and Kaapo Kakko. Lafreniere took two shots and three hits in just under 17 minutes of icetime, which was his highest icetime total in his last eight games. The most recent first overall pick is still stuck at one goal and no assists in 13 games.

No goals from any Rangers on Friday. That includes Mika Zibanejad, who is off to an ice-cold start with just three points in 13 games, including, no goals in his past 10 games. Although he did not even record a shot in this game, Zibanejad looked fairly involved in the play from what I was able to watch of this game. Mike discussed Zibanejad's shooting woes in yesterday's Ramblings, so I'll just leave it by concurring that Zibanejad should be viewed as a potential buy-low candidate. Replicating last season's production (1.32 PTS/GP) would be impossible at this point, though.

Despite not earning a win, Igor Shesterkin stopped 29 of 30 shots he faced. He has now posted five consecutive quality starts while allowing no more than two goals in all of those games. He appears to be rounding into form as the top-tier goalie that we expected.

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There was only one other game on Friday night. Justin Faulk scored two goals and added an assist with a plus-2 and four shots to power the Blues to a 4-1 win over the Coyotes. In just 14 games, Faulk has already equalled his goal total (5) from all of last season in just 14 games. That is a result of Faulk shooting the puck more, but he is also getting lucky with a 12.8% shooting accuracy. Faulk's cause is also helped by the fact that he is averaging three more minutes per game, which could be the result of Alex Pietrangelo leaving town. He's definitely having a bounce-back season, but don't expect him to score goals at this rate regularly.

Empty-net goals may not matter much in the outcome of a game, but they can matter in fantasy leagues. Brayden Schenn quickly picked up a goal and an assist during the final two minutes. He's scoring at a near point-per-game pace so far (13 points in 14 games).

For the Coyotes, Oliver Ekman-Larsson returned to the lineup after missing nearly a month with a lower-body injury. He was held without a point in 22 minutes while receiving top power-play minutes. This might hurt Jakob Chychrun's value to a degree, although I don't see a massive difference between the Coyotes' PP1 and PP2 units.

This was the fifth consecutive game between the Blues and Coyotes. Because of rescheduling due to COVID shutdowns of the Wild and Avalanche, these two teams will face off yet again today (Saturday) and once more on Monday.

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Steven Stamkos, who missed Thursday's game with a lower-body injury, was added to the COVID protocols list along with several other players on Friday. This does not necessarily mean that these players have personally tested positive, but that they have been exposed to the virus. However, expect Stamkos to be out of the Lightning lineup on Saturday and probably into next week.

Looking for some help with planning the most optimal lineup next week? Check out the most recent Looking Ahead.  

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On Wednesday I tweeted that I found it interesting that the top seven goal scorers were all from Canadian teams. A few of you were correct in pointing out that Canadian-based teams have been able to avoid the shutdowns that some of their US-based counterparts have experienced. With no North Division teams in action on Friday, here are the updated goal-scoring leaders:

NamePosTeamGPG
 MATTHEWS,AUSTONCTOR1311
 BOESER,BROCKRVAN1710
 MCDAVID,CONNORCEDM169
EHLERS,NIKOLAJLWPG139
TOFFOLI,TYLERCMTL149
 ANDERSON,JOSHRMTL149
 DRAISAITL,LEONCEDM168
PAVELSKI,JOECDAL118
 MARCHAND,BRADLBOS128
GAUDREAU,JOHNNYLCGY138

So prior to Saturday's games, the top six goal scorers and eight of the top 10 goal scorers play for Canadian-based teams.

I thought I'd dive into this further and show average games by division, then average goals by division and goals per game by division.

Average games by division, after Thursday's games:

DivisionAverage Games per Team
North14.57
East11.50
Central12.75
West12.25

It appears that the average East team has lost three games to cancellations and the average Central and West team has lost roughly two games (assuming all teams would have played the same number of games so far if no cancellations). So average goals per team by division should be higher in the North Division, right?

DivisionAverage Goals per Team
North46.43
East34.75
Central38.63
West35.75

Sure enough it is. So once we remove the games-played advantage of the North, is the North Division really a higher-scoring division?

DivisionAverage Goals per Game by Team
North3.19
East3.02
Central3.02
West2.92

This table is the most interesting. It shows that the North Division still holds the highest goals per game by team, but the difference is closer than you might think. If you're looking to maximize games played, you may want to consider trading away players in the North Division. I'm not saying unload the likes of Connor McDavid or Auston Matthews, but here are a few candidates you may want to consider.

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Tyler Toffoli

He has just one goal and one assist in nine games against teams not named the Vancouver Canucks (sorry for that reminder, Canucks fans). That also means he has been held without a point in his last four games. All of his advanced stats on Frozen Tools (18.0 SH%, 10.2 5-on-5 SH%, 3.3 PTS/60, 1043 PDO) are red*, which makes him an obvious sell high. I just put him on my trade block in one of my leagues, even though my auction price to acquire him was cheap.

* On the Frozen Tools Buy/Sell Meter, red is the color used to identify advanced stats that are significantly higher than expected, which may indicate a sell-high opportunity.

Josh Anderson

It seems like every time I watch a Habs game, Anderson scores a goal. I might actually be on to something, as he has scored five goals over his past five games. Nine goals in 14 games is quite the turnaround for a guy who scored just one in 26 games last season. I get it that he wasn't quite right because of injury, but this season it seems like everything has gone right. A 23.1 SH% and 3.3 PTS/60 all scream regression, although a 10.7 5-on-5 SH% is more normal. Unless you're in a bangers league and drafted him for his hits (team-leading 36), he's also a potential sell-high candidate, although maybe not to the same degree as Toffoli.

Regarding the Habs in general, their offense has already cooled off significantly recently, having scored just six goals over their last four games.

Nikolaj Ehlers

I know a lot of you out there like Ehlers, and even more so if he starts getting that first-unit power-play time that has eluded him. Yet there's nothing but red in the advanced stats (19.6 SH%, 14.1 5-on-5 SH%, 4.4 PTS/60, 1110 PDO). The good news for Ehlers is that Pierre-Luc Dubois has been more of a second-unit power-play guy for the Jets since joining them, while last season's PPQB1 Neal Pionk is also now on the second unit. So the power-play points won't completely dry up, even if his 5-on-5 scoring cools off.  

By the way, I won't list goals-against numbers, because remember, teams only face divisional opponents this season!

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By request, I'll bring up two more players who have been hot recently.

Max Comtois

With Thursday's Anaheim/Vegas game's only goal, Comtois now has three goals and four points over his last four games. He seems to show a great scoring touch around the net and doesn't seem shy about getting there. He's been providing about two shots and two hits per game based on his totals so far. He's also been helping Rickard Rakell get going after a sluggish start, as Rakell has three assists in his last four games. The Ducks don't play again until next week, so I'll add Comtois to my watch list for the time being.

Brock McGinn

McGinn hast scored a goal in five of his last six games while taking about 2.5 shots per game. Players do randomly go on hot streaks, but in McGinn's case he's been along for the ride on the top line with Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov and more recently with Nino Niederreiter and Vincent Trocheck. McGinn simply won't keep up this pace, but there may still be something there if he continues to be used on scoring lines. Keep your expectations modest, as he has yet to record an assist this season, and his power-play time is almost nonexistent.

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For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding

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