Daily Fantasy Saturday: Predator Power

Stephen Dotzel

2021-02-13

Some good news on the league schedule front. Despite three postponed games on Saturday, there remains a healthy docket of 11 games on the day. The culprits for the postponements – Buffalo, New Jersey, and Minnesota – are inching their way closer to resuming play, and only Philadelphia had to re-schedule games this week outside of that trio. It remains to be seen if another outbreak will pop up, but at least for now next week's schedule is mainly intact.

As for some bad news, if you were hoping for a large slate of games for the first Sunday following the conclusion of the NFL season how does a total of two games sound? Ugh. Well, it is Valentine's Day so perhaps this is the league's way of telling us we should spend some time with our significant others on a Sunday for once. I don't think my wife will read this, so I should be safe when saying give us more hockey!

But enough complaining about Sunday because Saturday is actually a really nice setup with nine of the games landing on the main slate and that's what we're interested in. There's a lot to unpack so let's get to it. Here are some suggestions on how I'm handling tonight's action for tournaments.

All players and prices are from DraftKings Main Slate (7 pm EST)

Top Options – High Owned

If you read this article last week, I spent much of it focused on ownership and how to work around what I anticipated to be a 30%-40% owned Auston Matthews. He actually eclipsed this number in many tournaments. But with nine games today, compared to just four last Saturday, numbers like that are something we won't have to deal with and as a result I don't think anyone is going to have ownership so high that it would make me second guess rostering them. Nonetheless, some spots should see higher numbers than others. 

TOR1 – Auston Matthews ($8,500), Mitch Marner ($6,700), Zach Hyman ($5,000)

Speaking of Matthews, he is set to be the highest owned player on the slate yet again; however, this time that should only mean about half of the ownership as last week. He saw his goal scoring streak come to an end on Wednesday at the hands of the Habs, but that was in Montreal. Tonight's matchup puts the teams in Scotiabank Arena where Matthews has historically been better, having scored 66% of his goals the last season and a half on home ice. Pairing him with Marner is the preferred way to stack him, but that is pricey. However, with all the options available to us tonight, it can certainly be done.

Last week taking a flier on a cheap power-play mate of Matthews in Wayne Simmonds was the trick. This week that guy might be Nic Petan ($2,500), who I don't think has the same upside, but for minimum price you could do worse. If entering multiple lineups, I would certainly want some exposure here to Matthews and company, but if only building one or two, I think I'd take my chances elsewhere.

NSH – Roman Josi ($7,000), Filip Forsberg ($6,900)

Seven of the nine games on tonight's slate features a rematch of teams who have played within the last three days and five of those seven are from Thursday alone. With so much overlap, we can take a look at Thursday's ownership to get an idea of where other players are going with their lineups. On that slate, Winnipeg commanded the highest numbers, but their game today doesn't land on the main slate so you can take them out of the picture. However as mentioned above, I think Toronto steps into that void.

The two highest owned skaters from Thursday's action outside of Winnipeg were Josi (19%) and Forsberg (14%), so I would expect these numbers to carry over and be close to what we see tonight. In that meeting this duo combined for four assists and 32.9 DraftKings points. I think there is more meat on the bone here, so I like the idea of going back to the well and picking on Detroit again.

The price tags on Josi and Forsberg make it tough, but there are some additional cheaper pieces worth including on Nashville stacks such as Matt Duchene ($5,500) and Ryan Ellis ($6,200) who join the Forsberg – Josi duo on the power play or Luke Kunin ($3,800) and Viktor Arvidsson ($5,300) who skate with Forsberg at even strength. A combination of these players gives you access to multiple lines and power plays for what should be a great spot for the Predators at home against Detroit.

Top Options – Low Owned

CGYPP1 – Elias Lindholm ($6,800), Matthew Tkachuk ($6,600), Johnny Gaudreau ($5,900), Sean Monahan ($4,900)

In sticking with tradition, we've reached the point in the article where I talk about the team playing Vancouver. It's no secret the Canucks have been struggling defensively. They've allowed the most goals in the NHL thus far this season, including 29 in their last six games alone. In the three previous meetings with Calgary, all losses, Vancouver has been outscored 11-3. In Thursday's contest, the four players for Calgary listed above all came in at around 8% ownership, a number I think you'll see again tonight.

Personally, I want to be overweight on the Flames and will certainly want them in more than 8% of my lineups. My line of choice will be Monahan and Gaudreau with the option of adding on Sam Bennett ($3,000) for the full line stack as they generated five scoring chances Thursday night compared to just one from the Lindholm line. But even so, I won't be scared about mixing in one or both of Tkachuk and Lindholm to get more power-play exposure. You can add defensemen Rasmus Andersson ($4,900) and Mark Giordano ($5,900) to the fray as well.

CGY3 – Mikael Backlund ($4,400), Andrew Mangiapane ($3,900), Milan Lucic ($2,500)

Surprisingly this has been Calgary's most productive line over the past week. In the Flames last four games this trio has combined for five goals and seven assists. Mangiapane himself has scored three times during this stretch which leads the team and he's cracked double digit DraftKings points in each game. Backlund was left off the score sheet Thursday, but had 12 shots on goal and 51.8 DraftKings points in the two games prior. Both players carry a very affordable price tag and make for good stacking options with other pricier lines. You can add in Lucic who is minimum price on DraftKings for a full line stack or Giordano who shares second power play duties with the duo.

TB1 – Brayden Point ($7,300), Victor Hedman ($7,100), Ondrej Palat ($5,100), TBD

This is a spot you'll want to keep an eye on throughout the day Saturday. I wrote this up originally with the thought Stamkos would be returning, however his addition to the COVID list late Friday seems to put that in doubt. Coach Jon Cooper said he would give an update on the lineup Saturday as Anthony Cirelli also left Thursday's game late in the third period. If Cirelli can draw back in, we could see Tyler Johnson slide up to the top line and power play like he did on Thursday, making him a top value play and cheap addition to the top line stack. If Cirelli can't suit up, it could cause a major shake up with the lines.

One thing we are likely certain of is that Point and Palat will remain together on the top line, so that's my preferred spot to go to. Hedman is as good of a defenseman offensively as there is in the league so adding him in to this stack makes sense as well. The Lightning are coming off arguably their worst game of the season but that loss snapped a six-game win streak that saw the trio of Point, Palat, and Hedman combine for 20 points.

Florida has tightened things up defensively of late having only allowed 18 goals across seven games. However, the majority of those games came against Detroit, so I'm not completely sold yet. As a result, I'm more than happy to roll with the Lightning in this one even while missing another of their top scoring options.

📢 advertisement:

VAN1 – Elias Pettersson ($6,200), JT Miller ($5,200), Brock Boeser ($5,800), Bo Horvat ($4,800)

This is a case of having to block out all the recent struggles from your mind and just take a shot on talent. There aren't going to be much in the way of numbers that point you to rostering the Canucks on Saturday. As I touched on in the Calgary portions, nothing has been going right for Vancouver. They've scored exactly one goal in three straight games and only three goals in three games against former goalie Jacob Markstrom. BUT, their price tags are down, their ownership will be low, and they simply didn't forget how to play hockey.

Eventually goals are coming, and when they do, it should be this group that supplies them. Dating back to last season the four players listed above have accounted for 42% of all of Vancouver's goals. When you can narrow down where you expect the production to come from, it makes your stack that much better when things go right. I wouldn't go all in on Vancouver and I prefer the Calgary side in general, but I do think the Canucks warrant some tournament consideration. 

Quick Hitters

TB3 – I spoke about the spot for the Lightning's top guys but the third line of Blake Coleman ($3,700), Yanni Gourde ($3,300), and Barclay Goodrow ($3,100) offer another cheap stacking option to fill in around pricier options (assuming they stay intact). Coleman is my preferred play as a one off, and one of my favorites on the slate.

BOS1 – Not much to say about the top Bruins line of David Pastrnak ($8,700), Patrice Bergeron ($8,100), and Brad Marchand ($7,400) that you don't already know. They're among the best options anytime they're on the slate and they're coming off a game Friday where none of them recorded a point, something that is unlikely to happen in back-to-back games. Their price tags make it difficult, but you can fit them if you want to go there.

NYIPP1 – Speaking of the Bruins, on top of the back-to-back they'll be playing their third game in four nights. Jordan Eberle ($4,900) was quiet on Thursday but had two goals on twelve shots in the two games prior. Meanwhile, Mathew Barzal ($7,200) and Anders Lee ($5,600) are a potent duo on the top line and should avoid Boston's top line all while potentially taking advantage of what could be some tired legs.

MTL2 – This is a rematch from opening night and in that one the second line duo of Nick Suzuki ($5,300) and Josh Anderson ($5,200) combined for three goals and their other linemate Jonathan Drouin ($3,600) kicked in a helper on each score. All three see power-play time as well, so it's a good bet you'll see them involved in the scoring if Montreal can shoot their way out of some recent struggles.  

Top Value Options for Filling Out Lineups

C – Backlund ($4,400), Boone Jenner ($4,300), Brock Nelson ($3,900), Alex Wennberg ($3,200), Mathieu Joseph ($2,600)

W – Oliver Bjorkstrand ($4,400), Mangiapane ($3,900), Phil Kessel ($3,700), Coleman ($3,700), Joel Armia ($3,500),

D – Alexander Edler ($3,900), Vince Dunn ($3,600), Brett Pesce ($3,300), Alex Goligoski ($2,900)

Goalie Picks

Jacob Markstrom ($8,100)

Joonas Korpisalo ($7,500)

Andrei Vasilevskiy ($8,300)

Antti Raanta ($6,900)

Semyon Varlamov ($7,300)

Be sure to double check your lineups before lock for any last-minute scratches or goalie changes, especially this year with the COVID protocols. If you follow me on Twitter @SteveDotzel you can subscribe to my "DFS-NHL" list which is comprised of several team beat writers tweeting the most recent news in real time. You can also reach out to me on Twitter and I'll do my best to answer any questions I can. Hope to see you on top of the leaderboards!

Leave A Comment

UPCOMING GAMES

Mar 29 - 19:03 BUF vs N.J

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JURAJ SLAFKOVSKY MTL
AUSTON MATTHEWS TOR
NATHAN MACKINNON COL
JACK QUINN BUF
FILIP FORSBERG NSH

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
IGOR SHESTERKIN NYR
IVAN FEDOTOV PHI
LOGAN THOMPSON VGK
FREDERIK ANDERSEN CAR
ALEKSEI KOLOSOV PHI

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency MTL Players
22.3 NICK SUZUKI JURAJ SLAFKOVSKY COLE CAUFIELD
20.9 ALEX NEWHOOK BRENDAN GALLAGHER JOEL ARMIA
17.3 JESSE YLONEN JAKE EVANS JOSH ANDERSON

DobberHockey Podcasts

FIND US ON FACEBOOK

📢 advertisement: