Ramblings – What To Do With Malkin? Outlook For Six Notable Players On Hot Streaks, and more (Feb 15)
Dobber
2021-02-15
I discussed the hot streaks of JVR and Jordan Staal last week, and with the light schedule Sunday I figured it's a great time to look at some of the other notably hot and cold performances of late. To be clear, I don't count Connor McDavid's 28 points in 15 games as notable (!), nor Patrick Kane's 15 in eight. Those two are proven, reliable superstars who are going to do this from time to time.
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Alex DeBrincat – Despite dipping last season from 76 points down to 45, I still maintained that DeBrincat was a potential 90-point player (in the Guide I have his upside at 95, actually). Tremendous upside and definitely owns another gear. Looks like we're seeing it. Still only 23 years old, I wouldn't be at all surprised if he has a 60-point season right now (in 56 games). He's played over 71% of his ES shifts with Patrick Kane, whereas last year this number was below 40%. So that bold call is of course dependent upon this situation remaining mostly unchanged. When he's a little older I'll feel more comfortable with DeBrincat anchoring his own line and not being reliant on help to put up the big numbers – but he'll get there. He has 13 points in his last eight games.
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Jack Roslovic – Roslo has nine points in his last seven games and has really earned the trust of his new coach. His ice time has crept up to over 19 minutes per game in each of the last four games. He's being treated as a legitimate first-line center by Torts, other than the never-winning-faceoffs thing (and don't think Torts hasn't noticed that and is no-doubt moving to address it). The chemistry with Cam Atkinson and Patrik Laine is very real, and has also turned Atkinson's career back around as a fantasy asset. Wam-Bam Cam has seven points in his last three games. I have a feeling we'll be discussing this trio a lot in the coming months. I pushed hard to get Roslovic in the summer and ultimate failed. But I also pushed you to do the same, and if you were successful then you are certainly reaping the rewards now.
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Dustin Brown – The 36-year-old was done as a fantasy asset. And then he had a resurgence. And then he was done again. Now another resurgence? Now back with Anze Kopitar and Alex Iafallo after the Adrian Kempe experiment didn't work out, Brown has been hotter than ever. But if you look closer you'll note that his production is coming via the power play. And this is unexpected because last season he was almost entirely useless there. He already has more PPPts (seven) then he did all of last year (five). That's right, in about 27 minutes of total PP time he has seven points when last year he had just five in about 165 minutes of PP time. I call 'bullshit' on this one. His ES production is fine (five points in 13 games), but his PP numbers are far too high – by about five points. His PPIPP is 100% when his career high in that department is 62.5% and last season it was 29.4%. Sell high on this guy for sure.
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Kevin Stenlund – Stenlund was held pointless on Saturday, but he has five points in five appearances on the season. Saturday's game saw a season-high in ice time 15:24 and Coach Torts seems to like him on the Oliver Bjorkstrand – Max Domi line. The trio generated 13 chances while giving up only seven, making them the most effective offensive line despite being held pointless. Stenlund is a big boy at 6-4, 210 pounds. And as with most big forwards, you need to wait a little longer on him. But he's shown glimpses of offensive promise at other levels. In the AHL he was posting at just over a point every two games, which is nothing special. But again, give him another season there and I think his numbers would have been strong. But we'll never find out because he is in the NHL to stay. Last season with Columbus he made it hard to be sent back down after being recalled, and ended up posting 10 points in 32 games. This could be a matter of Stenlund being a better player at the top level with great players around him, than he is at the minor-league level. That's not to say that he's a point-per-game player at the NHL level. Far from it. But I wouldn't be surprised if he stays in the lineup going forward and tops the 20-point mark. He's on the right team for it – Columbus has little depth, especially down the middle. And he has the versatility to play center or wing. His long-term outlook depends very much on who he plays with. Obviously solidifying chemistry with Bjorkstrand would go a long way towards this. It would mean the difference between rounding out into a 40-point player, or into a 60-point player. We'll just have to wait and see. But Stenlund is one to keep an eye on. He didn't come out of nowhere, even though he's 24 years old. He was a second-round pick (58th overall in 2015) and, as I already noted, just needed longer to develop.
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Darnell Nurse – I have been trumpeting Nurse's offensive upside for several years now, especially the last two seasons where he's actually shown a lot of promise whenever Oscar Klefbom is sidelined. Now this year he's truly showing it, with 12 points in 16 games. Part-time stat-heads will be quick to tell you that his numbers are a little inflated and definitely unsustainable. This is true. But only in the sense that instead of having 12 points in 16 games he should have something more like 10 points in 16 games. And that's still great. Nurse has 10 points in his last 10 games with secondary power-play time, top PK time and being paired at even-strength with Tyson Barrie while Ethan Bear is sidelined. In the Fantasy Guide I had projected Nurse to get 30 points. His current pace is 42. I would tweak expectations to something closer to 35.
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Chandler Stephenson – Still locked in on the Max Pacioretty – Mark Stone line, Stephenson is beginning to put up the numbers accordingly. He is becoming the Chris Clark to Stone's Alex Ovechkin. The Zach Hyman to Stone's Auston Matthews. He has six points in his last five games (three of them on the power play) and the coach isn't budging on his linemates. He's there to stay. He doesn't have the upside to post these tremendous numbers, but Stephenson could absolutely be a Chris Clark/Zach Hyman type.
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Speaking of hardworking role players who have a bit of skill getting placed on a high-powered line and seeing his production pop… Bryan Rust had himself a big day on Sunday. Three points and six shots on goal playing with Sid the Kid and Jake Guentzel. Rust has 22 (22!!) shots on goal in the last THREE games. His numbers during that span:
3-3-3-6, plus-5, 6 SOG, 1 PPG, 4 Hits
Don't forget that last year he finished with 56 points in 55 games. Yes, his stats really tailed off over the last six weeks but the season was cancelled before he could slide below the point-per-game mark. So the stats remain stellar: in Rust's last 72 regular season and playoff games, he has 72 points. Can't argue with that. When a player is a point-per-game over the course of 72 games, I think you gotta call him a point-per-game player even though your instincts are screaming against it. And once a player gets a taste of those kinds of numbers, not only does his confidence soar (helping him to continue producing), but coaches will start playing him as if he's that kind of player.
Zach Aston-Reese has a goal in each of the two games he's played since returning from injury. He also has eight SOG and five Hits. If he didn't get hurt so much I would like his outlook for this season. But he's missed so much time over the years he's still nowhere near the 200-game Breakout Threshold. Still, for now he's doing well playing on an effective third/fourth line.
Since his return from injury three games ago, Mike Matheson has seen a spike in ice time, averaging over 21 minutes per game. He was very effective Sunday paired with John Marino, picking up a pair of assists and a blocked shot.
Evgeni Malkin has seven points in 13 games and is on pace for 30 points. You drafted him for 55 or 60. What's going on? Well, he's not clicking with Kasperi Kapanen and Jason Zucker. At least not in the way we know he can. But those are the only two logical wingers for him, unless Rust gets shuffled back to that line. We're not losing Malkin to age, nobody falls off a cliff like that and he is just a few months off of posting 1.35 points-per-game. This actually comes down to the power play. He has just one PP point so far and normally he would have about six right now. His PPIPP has been steady throughout his career in that 75% to 80% range, and right now it's at 20%. So this is just terrible puck luck on the power play, and I don't think it will last. Statistically, it could and should end any day now. He's a buy-low option for sure.
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Evgeny Kuznetsov and Jakub Vrana returned to action Sunday and each of them scored a goal, though the Caps eventually squandered that lead. The two of them played alongside TJ Oshie, and the line was Washington's best. Daniel Sprong was scratched to make room.
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Marc-Andre Fleury continues to be lights-out, taking full advantage of Robin Lehner being sidelines (upper body). In three starts with Lehner out, Fleury has allowed two goals in total. He has seven Quality Starts overall this year in eight attempts. That's just behind Andrei Vasilevskiy (nine), Kevin Lankinen and John Gibson (eight). Not bad for a goalie we figured would be the backup.
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Announcement: The Midseason Fantasy Guide (yes…we’re there already) will be out on Friday, March 12!!
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See you next Monday.