Ramblings: Elvis, Jumbo Joe, Shorthanded Flyers, Struggling Zibanejad (Feb 19)

Ian Gooding

2021-02-19

On Thursday morning, Alain Vigneault announced that no one on the Flyers COVID list would be going to Lake Tahoe. Those players are Claude Giroux, Travis Konecny, Jakub Voracek, Oskar Lindblom, Scott Laughton, Justin Braun, and Morgan Frost. That's a big chunk of their team, especially when it comes to scoring.

I'm not sure at what point the NHL decides to shut down a team as opposed to allowing (forcing?) them to continue to play because of a COVID outbreak or exposure. Although the NHL had a backup plan to send another team in place of the Flyers for the showcase Lake Tahoe weekend if they couldn't go, I wonder if the Flyers are being steered back into action because of their commitment to be one of the four teams involved in the outdoor invitational.

Regardless, the Flyers returned to action on Thursday and held it together long enough for a 3-2 shootout loss to a struggling Rangers team. The remaining Flyers' scoring options were leaned on a ton in this game.

Sean Couturier: 23:39

Kevin Hayes: 22:05

James van Riemsdyk: 21:46

Joel Farabee: 21:18

If you're looking for one Flyer that might benefit from all the absences, Michael Raffl might be the guy. Raffl recorded an assist in just over 20 minutes while taking on second-unit power-play responsibilities.

As for the outdoor game itself, check out these stunning visuals. I've never been to Lake Tahoe and I don't watch a lot of golf, so I'm interested to see what the whole setup looks like. Even if the outdoor game concept is no longer a novelty.

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As if 2020 and 2021 didn't have enough to throw at us, the Dallas/Tampa Bay Stanley Cup Final rematch scheduled for Saturday has been postponed, as was the Thursday game. These games have been postponed because of the severe unexpected winter weather that has also resulted in widespread power outages in the Dallas area. All the best to those affected.

The Stars have gone from a prime four-game slate to nada this week, and it wasn't even COVID-related. If you own one or more Stars on your fantasy team, you have to be concerned that at least some of these games and the others postponed because of COVID will either be replayed during the buffer week starting May 10 (which fantasy leagues may not include) or not at all.

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What Auston Matthews is up to this season is simply amazing. If you didn't have him in your lineup for Thursday's matchup against Ottawa, then shame on you. With two goals and two assists on Thursday, Matthews now has five goals over his last three games, points in all but one game this season, and nearly a goal per game (16 goals in 17 games). I moved Matthews up in my recent Top 100 Roto Rankings, but should he be the number one ranked player in fantasy hockey? Have your say.

Not to be outdone, linemate Mitch Marner chipped in four points of his own. I also moved Marner up the Roto Rankings as he slides into the top 5 in scoring with 1.5 PTS/GP (27 points in 18 games). The league's top four point producers (Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Marner, Matthews) are all from the Canadian Division.

Figuring that being the third wheel on the Matthews/Marner line while facing Ottawa might be fruitful, I added Joe Thornton from the waiver wire on Monday morning. Now Jumbo Joe is carrying my team this week (actually, preventing me from getting embarrassed in scoring categories) with two goals and four assists with a plus-5 in the three games against Ottawa. Even if other opponents prove to be less of a revolving door defensively than the Sens, Thornton is still worth taking a flier on. Fun fact: Thornton was the top scorer on my first-ever Yahoo fantasy team, back when he was a member of the Bruins. That shows the age of both of us.

Thomas Chabot missed this game because of an upper-body injury. Christian Wolanin, who entered the lineup in Chabot's place, took the first-unit power-play minutes for the Sens. Sorry, Erik Brannstrom owners who have been patiently waiting.

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Returning to strategic starts that worked in my favor, I decided to play Elvis Merzlikins against a fading Nashville team that has averaged only slightly over two goals per game. My pick of Merzlikins over Juuse Saros paid off, as Elvis stopped all 32 shots he faced for his first shutout of the season. He hadn't started a game since January 31, so you can't be blamed too much if you'd forgotten about him. Yet with Joonas Korpisalo struggling with just one Quality Start and four Really Bad Starts© in his last seven games, expect to see more of Elvis in the crease. He might get another opportunity to face those same Predators on Saturday.

Meanwhile, Saros hasn't won a game since January 27, which was also the last time he posted a quality start. If there's a goalie you're itching to add from the waiver wire, you're probably okay in dropping Saros (3.47 GAA, .882 SV%) to make that happen. Keep in mind that goalie values can change as often as the weather, though.

For more goalie start information, don't forget to check Goalie Post or sign up for its custom email notifications.

Cam Atkinson is holding a hot stick. He's now scored goals in five consecutive games, with nine points over that stretch. He's taken at least four shots on goal in each of his last four games, which is also a great sign. Lining up with Patrik Laine has made a huge difference for Atkinson, as Laine has a four-game point streak of his own. The normally high-volume shooting Laine has only taken six shots total over those four games, though. Maybe Laine is reinventing himself under John Tortorella.

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Viktor Arvidsson has been held without a point and is a minus-7 over his last six games. His season shooting percentage is a meager 3.8%. However, it's difficult to bank on him providing much more scoring than that until the Predators as a team start picking it up.

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Nicklas Backstrom scored on Thursday, extending his point streak to five games. He has three goals and seven points over that span. He's recorded points in all but two of the 15 games he has played this season. This is a great story for the 33-year-old center; however, his advanced stats (25.0 SH%, 15.0 5-on-5 SH%, 4.1 PTS/60, 1081 PDO) all suggest a regression. That will likely occur with his goal total, which at 8 G is only four behind his total from all of last season. He's been a fairly consistent producer of assists throughout his career, which is how you should expect his point totals to occur going forward.

With an assist on Thursday, Justin Schultz now has eight points over his last six games. That streak was interrupted by injury, of course. Because of the injury history, I bet you didn't even bat an eyelash when he signed with the Capitals.

Fantasy Take: Capitals Gain Schultz

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Tristan Jarry appears to be turning things around.

Also, Jarry has earned two wins and picked up two quality starts over his last three games. He might be worth trying to buy low on if you need help in net.  

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With an assist on Thursday, Anze Kopitar has a six-game point streak. The 33-year-old center is knocking on the door of the top 10 in scoring (19 points in 15 games), which his 15 assists place him in the top 10 in that category. The rebuilding Kings have a few under-the-radar scoring options (Dustin Brown, Alex Iafallo, Jeff Carter, Adrian Kempe) that might be worth taking a flier on. The Kings are currently a middle-of-the-pack team in scoring in what was expected to be a placeholder season before the top prospects start arriving.

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Erik Karlsson missed Thursday's game, and he's also expected to miss Saturday's game with a groin injury. Karlsson is a player I tried to avoid in drafts this season because of the injury risk from wear and tear. Also, his name value will have someone in every league reaching for him. I'd stay away from him even more so in a cap league, where you'll be on the hook for six more seasons after this one. Once arguably the top defenseman in fantasy, Karlsson has just four assists with a minus-5 in 13 games.

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I realize less than a third of the season has been played, but has there been a bigger bust so far than Mika Zibanejad? Held off the scoresheet on Thursday, Zibanejad has just one point (an assist) in his last 12 games. This is a massive dropoff from last season, so you have to wonder if something is really wrong here. I think the effects of COVID and the lack of a training camp have slowed him considerably where his timing and his shot velocity are off (from what I've seen and read about him). The shots on goal per game (new stat on Frozen Tools) have only declined from 3.6 SOG/GP last season to 2.9 SOG/GP, while his SH% has plummeted from 19.7% last season to just 2.3% this season.

It's possible that David Quinn matches Zibanejad with Artemi Panarin sometime soon in order to jumpstart Zibanejad. In the meantime, I'd consider benching him if you're in a shallow league. I own Zibanejad in a league where I start 20 players each week, so I'll just have to keep throwing him out there and hoping he can find his way. At this point, I'm not even sure if I can recommend a buy low – maybe a buy "really low." With the schedule condensed, this may simply be a lost season. But as a Zibanejad owner, I hope I'm wrong.

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David Perron scored an overtime winner and added two assists on Thursday. That gives him 17 points (6 G, 11 A) over his last 13 games. Over the last four seasons, he has averaged 0.88 PTS/GP. That's a similar average over that same span to Tyler Seguin, Gabriel Landeskog, teammate Vladimir Tarasenko, and the aforementioned Zibanejad. He's providing great value, as he's usually drafted well after all of these players.  

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For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding

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Dec 22 - 12:12 NYR vs CAR
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Dec 22 - 20:12 COL vs SEA

Starting Goalies

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  Players Team
PATRIK LAINE MTL
LANE HUTSON MTL
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
ALEX TURCOTTE L.A
DYLAN GUENTHER UTA

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  Players Team
JESPER WALLSTEDT MIN
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
LEEVI MERILAINEN OTT
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LINE COMBOS

  Frequency MIN Players
20.0 MATS ZUCCARELLO MARCO ROSSI KIRILL KAPRIZOV
17.3 MARCUS JOHANSSON FREDERICK GAUDREAU MATT BOLDY
17.1 MARAT KHUSNUTDINOV RYAN HARTMAN MARCUS FOLIGNO

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