Ramblings: Panarin; Zegras; Muzzin injury; Pavelski; Kubalik – February 23
Michael Clifford
2021-02-23
The big news from Monday was that Artemi Panarin will be taking a leave of absence from the team following abuse allegations against an 18-year-old girl stemming from 2011. This is not the forum for discussing geo-politics or abuse allegations so I will say this:
- Abuse allegations are serious.
- Russia is notorious for smearing dissidents, which Panarin is.
Both those things are simultaneously true. For now, Panarin will not be with the Rangers. They released the following statement:
We will see where this goes.
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I was looking at the assist leaders yesterday and saw Nicklas Backstrom inside the top-10 with 14 assists. He has 22 points in 17 games on the season, including 14 helpers. He won't keep shooting nearly 24 percent, which is why he'd be on pace for nearly 40 goals in an 82-game season, but here's an interesting nugget: he doesn't have a primary assist on the power play yet this year. He may even be a bit more unlucky than his 22 points would suggest. Isn't that something.
He has to be one of the more unheralded players of this century, right? He sits 51 points from 1000, which is a stellar mark in his own right. But Backstrom sits with 698 assists. Between the 2013 lockout, the end of last year, and this year, he will probably have lost about a full season to the NHL being taken off the ice. He could be around 750 career assists right now, which would put 1000 assists in range as he's only 33 years old. He probably won't get there now but he truly is one of the premier playmakers to enter the league since the 2005 lockout. I am not sure it will be enough for the Hall of Fame, but over 1000 points and a Stanley Cup will be a heck of a career.
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As for Trevor Zegras's rest-of-season outlook, well, I guess it depends on what we think of the Ducks. I look at Tim Stuetzle, who I think is a good comp for Zegras for this season, with nine points in 17 games and think that feels about right for Zegras. The Anaheim Ducks are about the worst offensive environment for him and his ice time will almost certainly be depressed, as all Ducks forwards are. It is nice to see him in the NHL but let's not get too excited just yet.
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The Leafs had some guys out of the lineup on Monday and it feels like to me that they're starting to rest players. It makes sense: the Leafs are 12 points up on the fifth-place Canucks with three games in hand. They've effectively wrapped up a playoff spot a third of the way into the season. One of those absences, Jake Muzzin's, wasn't a rest and this was why:
When we get more on his status, we will update you.
That Alex Galchenyuk hasn't hit the ice may surprise some but it seems to me as if this is a long-term project. They want to tailor his skills to their team and that may take some time with their skills coaches. It will be interesting to see the final product.
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Frederik Andersen was a warm-up scratch with a lower-body injury. Michael Hutchinson started in his place. Same with the other side, actually, as Jakob Markstrom is day-to-day while David Rittich started.
This game saw the Leafs load the top line with Tavares-Matthews-Marner, load the top PP unit with those three plus Nylander and Rielly, and get shutout 3-0. Hockey is weird.
Sean Monahan returned to the lineup and picked up a goal and an assist while Matthew Tkachuk matched him with that production, while adding five more shots and six hits. Rasmus Andersson picked up a pair of helpers including one on the man advantage.
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A late power-play goal from Jean-Gabriel Pageau lifted the Islanders to a 3-2 win over Buffalo. That makes six goals in the last seven games for ostensibly the third-line centre for the Isles. Oliver Wahlstrom assisted on that goal, adding a pair of shots and blocks in what was a decent fantasy offering from the rookie.
Semyon Varlamov saved 33 of 35 for his eighth win of the season.
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Anton Khudobin faced 51 shots, stopped 49 of them, but Dallas still lost 3-1 to Florida (Barkov hit an empty netter). Aaron Ekblad and Keith Yandle scored the goals on Khudobin, khu was pretty much inkhuman.
Miro Heiskanen managed just two shots on goal, believe it or not just the fourth time this year he's had at least two shots in a game.
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Tampa took a 4-2 win over Carolina in game three of this four-game set. The top line did its job as Palat (1-1), Stamkos (1-1), and Point (0-1) did a lot of the damage while Victor Hedman also chipped in 1-1 for his own. Alex Killorn scored the empty netter, just his third goal of the year.
Jesper Fast scored both Carolina goals in the loss. He's had a nice year for them on the fourth line.
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Power-play production is always a great asset in fantasy, but it can be a sort of double-edged sword. Players who rely on PP production for fantasy value can have their value taken away on any given night. In recent memory, I'm thinking of guys like Alex Edler and Will Butcher. Maybe Edler isn't a great example because he can provide something in peripherals but you guys get the idea.
In that spirit, here are some players whose fantasy value has been heavily reliant on PP production this year, and that should make people nervous for the rest of the season because, as mentioned earlier, 5-on-5 scoring is down. There isn't as much wriggle room anymore. All stats as of Monday afternoon.
The Stars' top centre posted 14 points in the team's first seven games and has three points in five since. He is still getting loads of ice time, especially with Roope Hintz's recent injured stretch, but he already has seven PP goals on the season, shooting at whopping 47 percent with the man advantage (he's never finished a season above 27 percent, and four of his five prior seasons were under 20 percent). Nearly two-thirds of Pavelski's points (11/17) have come with the man advantage. The Stars are struggling a bit at 5-on-5 so that doesn't portend good things for Pavelski down the road. Now is probably the time to get out.
For the year, Kopitar has 11 PP points in 16 games. Over the prior two seasons, he averaged one PP roughly every four games, so it seems obvious that even with the increased PP time across the league, Kopitar is punching well above his weight with the man advantage. Like Pavelski, the concern here is that the team isn't good enough at 5-on-5 to make up for a precipitous scoring drop on the power play; his line has an expected goals rate under 2.00 per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. The PP rate will decline and he may even endure some 5-on-5 regression. He is a serious trade candidate right now.
I want to get this out of the way: I'm a big fan of Kubalik and think he can be a great fantasy asset. The problem is Jeremy Colliton is only playing him 14-15 minutes a night, he rarely gets PP1 time with the big boys, and has infrequently skated with either Kane or DeBrincat. In other words, Kubalik is succeeding despite the deck being stacked heavily against him by his own coach. That the deck is stacked so heavily is the reason to get out now. Of his 14 points this year, 10 have come with the man advantage, and like I said, he's doing most of that work on the second PP unit. That unit won't keep scoring a goal every three minutes. Unless Kubalik's usage changes in a big way very soon, he's going to get hit by the regression monster very hard.
Just in general, there is a lot of regression warning here. Let us count the ways:
- Shooting 40 percent on the power play; has never been above 20 percent in any season
- The team is scoring nearly 15 goals/60 on the power play with him on the ice, about 50 percent higher than any previous season
- Shooting nearly 29 percent at 5-on-5; has never been above 13.3 percent
- On-ice shooting rate of 11.9 percent; has never been above 11.4 percent for his career
- An individual expected goals rate at 5-on-5 of 0.34, the lowest of his career by a significant margin
- Individual points percentage of 100 percent at 5-on-5, meaning he's gotten a point on every goal scored with him on the ice. He has never been above 82 percent in any season and was under 70 percent in two of the last three seasons.
Now, it should be mentioned he has a new role away from Aleksander Barkov, so a higher IPP isn't impossible here. But it won't stay at 100 percent and is likely to fall below 90 percent, so yes, there's regression coming.
It is always hard to get rid of a guy who is riding so high but there are just too many flags for Huberdeau. You have all been warned.
The Edmonton Guys
Well, a year after posting one of the greatest power-play seasons in NHL history, the Oilers currently have the first-, second-, and fifth-most individual point totals with the man advantage this year. Draisaitl-McDavid-RNH have combined for 39 PP points in the team's first 20 games.
The thing is, Edmonton is scoring fewer goals with the man advantage per 60 minutes this year (11.4) than they were last year (12.8). It is just that with penalties up in the NHL this year, the Oilers' top unit is getting more ice time, and more ice time means more goals. McDavid and co. are actually regressing, but ice time matters, so the regression is basically being counter-balanced.
All this is to say that if McDavid puts up 40 power-play points in 56 games this year, I would not be the least bit surprised, based on current ice time and scoring rates. And remember, those scoring rates represent a decline from last year. Ice time truly is a wonderful thing.