Looking Ahead: February 24 – March 10

Adam Daly-Frey

2021-02-26

All fantasy owners need help in the short term AND the long term. The Looking Ahead feature identifies one player to plug into lineups in the short term, a second to invest in for the long term, a third to bench for the coming week, and a fourth who will struggle to meet expectations for some time. All players discussed are selected based on their upcoming schedule.

Note: With COVID news coming out of the blue, this article could be stale by Friday evening. It's important as always to pay attention to twitter and the site (especially the Ramblings) to keep abreast of all fantasy-relevant changes. The schedule portion of this article will continue as always, but be prepared to react quickly if games get postponed. All stats updated through Wednesday, Feb. 24th

 The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)

Alex Tuch, W, Vegas Golden Knights (Available in 79 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Tuch has always been an interesting fantasy asset, especially after putting up 52 points in 74 games back in 2018-19, and it's been clear that the talent to produce is there. Unfortunately for Tuch believers, the winger averaged just 14:37 per game last season in a third-line / second power play-unit role, which led to a disappointing 17 points in 42 games in his third year.

Not all is lost though as in the Knights' last game, Alex Tuch found himself elevated to the top line with Mark Stone and Chandler Stephenson – swapping spots with Max Pacioretty – and that resulted in a 5v5 goal immediately, followed by a power play goal. That brought Tuch up to 7G-6A on the season in just 16 games, and although he's shooting a whopping 24.1 percent on the year which will regress, the fact that he got to see a season-high 18:48 last game in a win bodes well for the near future. Combine his current role with Vegas' strong upcoming schedule (see below) and he makes for a smart pickup; if he continues to find more success, he could even become a nice trade chip down the line.

The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)

Nick Schmaltz, C, Arizona Coyotes (Available in 69 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – The criminally-underrated Nick Schmaltz – who led the Coyotes in points last season with 45 points in 70 games – is currently fourth on the team in points, with 6G-8A in 19 games, but the excitement for fantasy players should be that Schmaltz is finally shooting the puck. With 47 shots on goal so far (2.43 per game), Schmaltz is taking a full shot more per game than he was last season and a full shot more than he averaged in Chicago; given that he's a career 13 percent shooter, that means an extra ~5 goals than he would've had last season.

At only 24 years old but in his fifth season already, Schmaltz is leading the Coyotes top line with Clayton Keller and Christian Dvorak, running the team's top power play, and seeing 17:05 per game which is a full minute and a half more than last year. He's not much for adding peripheral stats – just 12 hits and 35 blocks last season – and that hasn't changed much this season, but his point production should be very strong and he should add power play points for leagues where that matters; he'll also contribute in faceoff categories, if that makes a difference.

The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)

Dominik Kubalik, W, Chicago Blackhawks (Owned in 79 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – After hitting the 30-goal mark in just 68 games in his rookie season (albeit at age 24), Kubalik was a hot target this year; unfortunately, an unknown injury to Jonathan Toews has forced Kubalik to play primary minutes with Philipp Kurashev and Dylan Strome (since injured) as his center.

On the season Kubalik still has a solid 6G-10A line in 20 games while playing 15:18 per game, which is a solid point pace and actually an increase in minutes – he only played 14:22 per game last year – but he's really struggling at 5v5 with 0.91 points per 60 this year compared to 2.59 last year. A full 11 of Kubalik's 16 points so far have come with the man advantage, which isn't something that should be expected to continue, especially with Kubalik playing on the second power play unit.

In no way should Kubalik be dropped, but with Chicago's poor upcoming schedule and the lack of even-strength production, lower expectations in a big way over the next couple weeks. With Kubalik's decent line on the year he could probably be moved at something close to full value which could be worth considering.

The Anchors (They'll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)

Dylan Larkin, C, Detroit Red Wings (Owned in 74 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Although Dylan Larkin is far-and-away Detroit's best player and is playing over 20 minutes every game, the fact remains that Larkin still plays for Detroit which makes rostering him scary, but even scarier in leagues that track plus/minus: Larkin hasn't been a plus player since his rookie season, and after sitting at -21 last year Larkin is at -7 this season through the first 21 games.

Larkin's sitting at 4G-7A on the year which is fine in deeper leagues, but not at 74 percent on Yahoo while there are plenty of fine options on the waiver wire; the positives would be there if Larkin had consistent linemates to play with – when playing with Anthony Mantha and Tyler Bertuzzi over the past two seasons, that trio combined for 3.75 goals per 60 minutes, but when Larkin was separated from those two that number dipped to 1.75 goals per 60. Given that Tyler Bertuzzi's injury status is currently unknown (he's missed all of February) and Anthony Mantha has flip-flopped lines all season, Larkin's production should continue to be muted.

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With Detroit's bad schedule (see below), Larkin can be benched in the short term, dangled in a trade, or even dropped for someone like Nick Schmaltz in the long term. Feel free to hang on to him in keeper leagues if you think a possible coaching change will bring Larkin back to relevance, but otherwise he can take a hike.

Love 'Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)

This period runs from February 26th to March 10th

Colorado – In a non-COVID season the maximum allowable games during a 13-day period is seven, but given the extraordinary circumstances this year, the Avalanche break the mould and will play eight games during this period. They'll play Arizona four times – twice on the road and twice at home – as well as two road games against the Sharks, and two home games against the Ducks.

NY Islanders – The Islanders haven't been scoring tremendously well this season – only four games with four goals, and none above that mark – but have a strong upcoming schedule and recently got Anthony Beauvillier back from injury. The Islanders play seven games this period, against the Penguins (twice), the Devils (once), the Bruins (once), and most enticing of all: three home games against Buffalo.

Vegas – After getting a game postponed against the Sharks this week, who knows what changes await the Golden Knights, but for now their schedule is very appealing: seven games, with four coming against the Wild and the remainder against the Sharks (twice) and Ducks. The top of the lineup for Vegas has been very productive and should remain that way, and they're fully healthy.

Leave 'Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)

Detroit – The first strike against the Red Wings from a fantasy perspective is that they're the Red Wings, and that's almost reason enough to ignore them on fantasy rosters this year, but their schedule is also doing them no favors: just five games this period, with four on the road (Chicago twice, Columbus, Carolina) and their remaining game home to the reigning Cup champions. Detroit has been scored four goals in a game as often as they've been shutout (three each) and have yet to hit goals in a game, and don't expect that to change.

Los Angeles – With a six-game win streak in hand (as of Wednesday night), the Kings have been a happy surprise this year, but don't expect that to continue into March, as the Kings get two back-to-backs and play stiff competition in the Coyotes, Blues, Wild and Ducks. The only Kings to put any trust in over the next two weeks are the guys in net.

Chicago – The Blackhawks also play six times during this period and get the advantage of playing against the Red Wings twice – both at home! – but should still mostly be ignored for fantasy. Chicago has to face Tampa Bay in three straight games (including a back-to-back) before ending the period in Dallas against a mostly stingy Stars team.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Mar 19 - 19:03 DET vs CBJ
Mar 19 - 19:03 N.J vs PIT
Mar 19 - 19:03 PHI vs TOR
Mar 19 - 19:03 NYR vs WPG
Mar 19 - 19:03 BOS vs OTT
Mar 19 - 19:03 NYI vs CAR
Mar 19 - 20:03 NSH vs S.J
Mar 19 - 20:03 STL vs COL
Mar 19 - 21:03 EDM vs MTL
Mar 19 - 22:03 VGK vs T.B
Mar 19 - 22:03 L.A vs CHI
Mar 19 - 22:03 VAN vs BUF
Mar 19 - 22:03 ANA vs MIN

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
DANIIL MIROMANOV CGY
CONNOR MCMICHAEL WSH
CONNOR BEDARD CHI
EVGENY KUZNETSOV CAR
YEGOR SHARANGOVICH CGY

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
DUSTIN WOLF CGY
CHARLIE LINDGREN WSH
DANIIL TARASOV CBJ
JOEY DACCORD SEA
DEVIN COOLEY S.J

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency T.B Players
21.4 BRAYDEN POINT NIKITA KUCHEROV ANTHONY DUCLAIR
19.1 STEVEN STAMKOS BRANDON HAGEL ANTHONY CIRELLI
17.1 CONOR SHEARY NICHOLAS PAUL MICHAEL EYSSIMONT

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