Frozen Tool Forensics: Mining for Free Agent Gold
Chris Kane
2021-03-05
For the last several weeks we have been focused on a league-wide scan of power-play defensemen. Week 1 is here, Week 2 is here, and Week 3 is here. Now that we have wrapped up that discussion, we are going to turn to a bit of gold mining. Scouring the waiver wire is never a sure thing, and is even more difficult in deep leagues. Today, we are going to take a deep dive and try to find value in low-owned players that can augment your roster. The value of any given player will depend on how deep your league is and the specific category makeup, but we will try and find some point producers that might be available to you.
In terms of process, we will be taking a scan through Yahoo's ownership numbers as a general gauge of awareness/ownership of a player and won't be targeting players who are more than 25% owned. We will then be using the player profile and last game lines sections of Frozen Tools to take a look at their recent production and deployment. Generally, we are looking for players who have an opportunity to succeed, so good time on ice, good linemates, and who have some evidence of producing with that deployment. The list below is some of the "high" flyers that you should maybe be considering (depending of course on your league size and settings).
Without further ado, let's begin with our higher-owned players and then travel down deeper through the layers of silt to find the deepest possible fantasy nuggets. Just as an aside, all research was conducted Thursday morning, so these stats do not include Thursday evening's games.
Pavel Buchnevich – 23% owned
Buchnevich is seeing career-high power-play time, career-high total time on ice, is on pace for a career-high 62 points (full season pace), and is shooting a career-high 2.6 shots per game. Without Artemi Panarin in the lineup, it is a little hard to tell which is the top line, but he is playing with Mika Zibanejad and Alexis Lafreniere at even strength, and what looks like the second power-play unit. He is seeing upwards of 19 minutes a night on average, with almost three minutes of power-play time. He also has seven points in his last seven games. At this point what are you waiting for?
P.K. Subban – 23% owned
Subban is currently on a 36-point pace, which while being one of the lowest of his career is certainly an improvement from 2019-20's 22-point pace. Since January 30, though, he has seven points in 11 games (or a 52 full season point pace). During that time, he is shooting over twice a game, seeing over two minutes of power-play time on average, and over 20 minutes of total time on ice a night. His shooting percentage over that time is much closer to his career number than his 2.2 percent full season shooting percentage. It looks like he is still not getting consistent number one power-play deployment, with most of that going to Ty Smith, but really, we can't have everything in a player less than 25% owned.
Mikael Backlund – 16% owned
Backlund is perpetually in this position. Not quite exciting enough to be owned in a lot of leagues, but boring enough that he is often overlooked. There is nothing particularly new or different happening with Backlund, he is seeing about 17 minutes a night with Matthew Tkachuk and Andrew Mangiapane. Consider this your annual reminder that he exists, will put up about 50 points, takes faceoffs, and somehow has RW eligibility in Yahoo this year.
Alex Iafallo – 13% owned
Unfortunately, Iafallo is on a bit of a cold streak, but he is getting some dream (by LA standards) deployment. He is on the top line and top power-play with Anze Kopitar and Dustin Brown. He is seeing over 20 minutes a night of total time on ice, and over three minutes on the power-play. As such his shot rate is at a career-high (2.4 per game). Prior to this three-game cold stretch, he had eight points in eight games. He isn't quite matching Buchnevich's 60+ season point pace, but is still worth a look in deep leagues.
Frank Vatrano – 7% owned
Vatrano's full season 35-point pace may not endear him to many fantasy managers. You should be aware though that as of February 27 he has been playing on the top line with Aleksander Barkov and Carter Verhaeghe, replacing Anthony Duclair. He is also on the second power-play unit. In the two games since the move, he has played over 18 minutes a night, about two minutes on the power-play, has put up eight shots and scored two goals. It is an increase of almost four minutes a night. Now he won't be scoring a goal every game he is on that line, but while he is there, he is certainly worth a look.
Kevin Labanc – 6% owned
Labanc has been getting excellent even-strength deployment all season but has been struggling to produce. Seven points in his last seven games has started to change that. He is seeing time with Logan Couture and Evander Kane (who incidentally is on a 74 point full season pace) at even strength at about 16.5 minutes a night, and about two and a half minutes on the power-play. In the Sharks' most recent game he was on the top unit. Top power-play, top line, and shooting 2.4 times a night. He like, Iafallo, still isn't projecting to break much past a 50-point pace, but still could be worth a look in deep leagues with that deployment.
Colin Blackwell – 2% owned
Blackwell has risen in the depth charts due to an injury to Artemi Panarin. He has taken Panarin's spot with Ryan Strome and Chris Kreider, and somewhat surprisingly it is working out okay. He has five points in his last seven games and shooting about twice per game. He is averaging a bit over 15 minutes of total time, and about two minutes of usually second power-play duties. Strome and Kreider have also been surprisingly productive over this stretch with seven points for Strome, and nine for Kreider. Part of that is no doubt just regression as both Strome and Kreider were snake-bitten for much of January and February.
Eeli Tolvanen – 2% owned
Definitely another swing here, but what do we expect at 2% owned? Tolvanen has generally had a(nother) disappointing season thus far, but recently there might just be a ray of light. His last game had him on the top line and top power-play with Filip Forsberg and Mikael Granlund. He saw over 18 minutes of total time and over three minutes on the power play. He put up no points but did manage three shots (and three hits if that is worth anything to you). We will need to see a few games before getting too excited, but he is a player who had some prospect hype a few years ago and this is the first time we have seen him get a real deployment boost.
That is all for this week. Thanks for reading. Stay safe out there.